he is technically correct - there will be no ssw this side of feb but the dynamics may well be irreverible by then. remember the definition of an ssw is very precise and the effects of the warmings thus far this month have reduced the very strong westerlies in the strat such that our arctic high can form and survive if other factors allow. infact, i doubt that the scandi ridge would have survivied so long had we been in early jan.
btw, remaining too complex to call but i note decent agreement between the ecm ens and gefs 06z mean around day 8.
Originally Posted by: nickl
Nickl please could you tell me what is the preicse definition of an SSW event.if threr aceratin amount of rise in n temp in a certain time priod and where in the atmosphere iis it measured?
Thanks R
I think the definition is the same as 'major strat warming event' which requires the complete destruction of the polar vortext and reversal of wind direction at 10hpa. Merly displacing the polar vortex doesn't count.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.