theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

The Beast from the East
21 January 2014 16:33:14

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012112/gfsnh-0-186.png?12


Fat lady can return to the dressing room and shave her armpits

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Chiltern Blizzard
21 January 2014 16:36:14


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012112/gfsnh-0-150.png?12


We have a slider, well done NAVGEM for being the first to pick it!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Really? for Shetland maybe, for the rest of the UK, a pretty solid atlantic westerly flow.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 January 2014 16:38:49
GFS on Cold Water with it's 12z run today, losing the plot by 144hours methinks.

Between 120 and to 144 it handles it well but after t144, it wants to link the SE Tracked Northeast Atlantic Low to the Low that is pushed into it at 144 and 168hours, there it dives from SW Greenland join the earlier UK cold NW plunge and turns it less cold for 24 hours later on next Monday and out Tuesday 28 Jan, with Cold NW flow being sliced pushed SE from that NW Atlantic merged to UK Sunday and Monday Cyclonic Low which eases away, as it is absorbed by the NW to SE track Low pressure tracking East SE to UK, with Cold air under WNW flow- wintry showers with it.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Gusty
21 January 2014 16:39:49

Next week is shaping up to be disturbingly wet and windy.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



David M Porter
21 January 2014 16:39:50


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012112/gfsnh-0-186.png?12


Fat lady can return to the dressing room and shave her armpits


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Or find herself another job.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
21 January 2014 16:41:56

GEM


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012112/gemnh-0-180.png?12


Race against time to build a scandi high before the atlantic rolls in again seems to be the consensus.


Seem to be no chance of greeny block

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
21 January 2014 16:48:40
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Maunder Minimum
21 January 2014 16:54:38

The Atlantic is really doing its best to ensure that the Scandi block can't influence our weather. Just look at that low! Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png


Correction - GFS is doing its best to keep the Scandi block out of reach! That is only a GFS forecast after all and it does not have to be correct, since GFS always err on the side of being too progressive and big Atlantic LPs are its speciality!

New world order coming.
Saint Snow
21 January 2014 16:58:35

The Atlantic is really doing its best to ensure that the Scandi block can't influence our weather. Just look at that low! Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png


 


It's that bloody Azores High ridging into Iberia/France that's buggering it up. If only that energy would move SE'wards into mainland Europe (about a 1,000 west of the UK ideally ) we'd be in business.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
briggsy6
21 January 2014 17:00:31


Next week is shaping up to be disturbingly wet and windy.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Well that should make a refreshing change then!


 

Location: Uxbridge
Charmhills
21 January 2014 17:04:00


Hi all


Here's todays video update;


Will Low Pressure Dive South Next Week?


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Models flirting with the idea of an increasingly cool and wintry week, but call me dubious give we've been here before this January with the "cut-off" low idea.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Cheers Gav, if somewhat messy.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Stormchaser
21 January 2014 17:28:51

After the 00z and 06z runs held Friday's front out west, the 12z has corrected back east to fall in line with the other models, which means an almost stalled front across the west only slowly edging east.


This does mean a lot of rain - just how much I'm not sure, as the precipitation accumulation maps never seem to work properly any more (shows 4mm here tonight for GFS, when NAE shows 12-16mm, despite both having similar precipitation intensity sequences overnight). WRF has about 10mm.


 


Beyond that, the models are coming together on the idea of a sliding trough in 5-6 days time, but there is this tendency to produce vague areas of nothingness to the N of the UK while the strong block remains across Russia/Scandinavia.


That does sound a bit familiar doesn't it? 2013 mk. II 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Russwirral
21 January 2014 17:31:39


After the 00z and 06z runs held Friday's front out west, the 12z has corrected back east to fall in line with the other models, which means an almost stalled front across the west only slowly edging east.


This does mean a lot of rain - just how much I'm not sure, as the precipitation accumulation maps never seem to work properly any more (shows 4mm here tonight for GFS, when NAE shows 12-16mm, despite both having similar precipitation intensity sequences overnight). WRF has about 10mm.


 


Beyond that, the models are coming together on the idea of a sliding trough in 5-6 days time, but there is this tendency to produce vague areas of nothingness to the N of the UK while the strong block remains across Russia/Scandinavia.


That does sound a bit familiar doesn't it? 2013 mk. II 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


Was thinking this myself, and the fact that the setup is remarkably similar, but with the UK located 500miles west compared to 2013.  as a result we remain in the warm wet and windy sector of the sliding lows


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 January 2014 17:47:05
The UKMO 12z run, for t120 Sunday this Weekend, and Monday of following Week is exactly matching GFS 12z.

From Sunday evening and Sunday night right upto Monday night the UK weather will transform to being one affected by Very Cold NW Winds with low pressure Centre over the NW side / half of the UK, all other areas including the West and NW will see plenty of Sleet and even Snow showers but as we get to the event the Weather Forecasters will suggest it will be rain and hail showers in South and SE side!.

I am looking forwards to next few days Weather Forecasting updates on here and on TV.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 January 2014 17:54:23
for Tuesday p.m. And Wednesday's weather updates that needs us to take a look at next 3 days a model output data! And I hope the Second low sliding SE gives the UK a second bite of the cherry, I mean a wish for Wintry possibly Snow packed showers if we see maxes of 5 or 6 with heavy showers they could easily have sleet and snow in the mix, especially with 520,524 and the Sub 528 dam line, from later this Sunday to Tuesday and even Wednesday as we check for next few days updates there is a lot of hope that a taste of Winter and night frosts weather can return and keep us happy, and enjoy some snowfall or rainy sleet showers!!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2014 17:56:58
Biggest warming yet of the strat from the GFS. A straw at least. THe vortex completely disappears by 360h!



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=10&carte=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
roger63
21 January 2014 18:01:30


After the 00z and 06z runs held Friday's front out west, the 12z has corrected back east to fall in line with the other models, which means an almost stalled front across the west only slowly edging east.


This does mean a lot of rain - just how much I'm not sure, as the precipitation accumulation maps never seem to work properly any more (shows 4mm here tonight for GFS, when NAE shows 12-16mm, despite both having similar precipitation intensity sequences overnight). WRF has about 10mm.


 


Beyond that, the models are coming together on the idea of a sliding trough in 5-6 days time, but there is this tendency to produce vague areas of nothingness to the N of the UK while the strong block remains across Russia/Scandinavia.


That does sound a bit familiar doesn't it? 2013 mk. II 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Vague areas of nothing can mean opprtunity.However as has been already posted weare generally on thr wrong side of the trough for cold.


Still two areas to focus on.


Friday and  Saturday and still potential for hill snow


144h -240h The detail  of the silder will determine whethere eastrlies /nprthelies get in round the top of the LP or whether zonal  prevails(still the most likely option.)


Ltes see how 12h ECM handles it


 

Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2014 18:06:53
Nice Control tonight form GFS!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
21 January 2014 18:25:23

EC looks ok so far

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
21 January 2014 18:26:06


Next week is shaping up to be disturbingly wet and windy.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I would throw one of these in just for good measure for some Northern areas

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
21 January 2014 18:33:18

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012112/ECH1-144.GIF?21-0


 


not too shabby

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
21 January 2014 18:43:13


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012112/ECH1-144.GIF?21-0


 


not too shabby


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Showing potential.................................as always


Just need something to go our way

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2014 18:43:44
Another stunning JMA

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
roger63
21 January 2014 18:46:55



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012112/ECH1-144.GIF?21-0


 


not too shabby


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Showing potential.................................as always


Just need something to go our way


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0


 A week down the line same players only difference is a strnger HP 1050 but still too far east.So who will win the battle this time? Defaullt Atlantic I suspect. 

Ally Pally Snowman
21 January 2014 18:53:55
A powder puff easterly from the ECM a crap run really when it could of been so much better



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads