Good evening. Here is the report from the 12 midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 21st 2014.
All models show an unsettled and changeable period between now and the start of next week. A band of rain is shown to be currently crossing the UK with clearer and more showery weather following on behind. Tomorrow will see the front bringing the rain only slowly clearing away East out into the North Sea with the rain clearing slowly. Elsewhere a showery West or NW flow blows with showers forming in organized bands both tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday a new trough delivers more appreciable wind and rain through the day and this will be repeated on Sunday with Saturday being the best of the weekend days with sunshine and showers most likely. Throughout this period temperatures will be up and down but never overly cold or mild over the period.
GFS tonight then shows next week and indeed beyond unsettled and occasionally windy with showers and longer spells of rain continuing in generally West or NW winds with a few brief Northerly incursions for some pepping up the potential for wintry showers at times but never substantial away from the high ground of the North.
The GFS Ensembles are nothing exceptional tonight whatever your preferences should be with plenty of unsettled weather with rain at times blown in on pressure systems crossing the Atlantic and reaching the UK via the West or NW. Temperatures look a smidgen below average overall sufficiently enough for some snow on high ground of the North at times but generally of little consequence.
UKMO starts the new week off with deep Low pressure moving ESE towards Scotland with a cool and showery WNW flow over the UK with some heavy showers perhaps with hail and thunder and snow over high ground in the North.
GEM shows the Low over Scotland next Monday sinking South over the UK and down into Europe with cold and showery weather with some hill snow at times. Late in the run continuing changeable weather seems likely as further troughs move across from the West and NW with more rain and temperatures returning to average.
NAVGEM pushes complex Low pressure out to the NW on Monday South over the UK with showers and longer spells of rain continuing well into the middle of next week.
ECM also continues changeable weather through next week with rain or showers at times, probably heavy and persistent at first but with increasingly lengthy drier periods between the rain bands later in the week as the slightly chilly conditions revert towards more average temperatures by the end of the run as winds turn Westerly.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts which I highly regard when looking at the probabilities of where we will be standing in 9 and 10 Days time have remained rock solid with the current pattern for what seems an age now and tonight's charts are no exception. In 9 or 10 days time it looks like we will still be staring down the barrel of a stand off between High pressure to the NE and SW with the UK lying on the Western peripherey of a North Sea trough with continuing spells of rain and showers in West or NW winds and temperatures near or a fraction below average.
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The Jet Stream continues to show very little change in trajectory and course over the coming few weeks as it continues to cross the Atlantic before turning South over the UK towards Southern Europe and then East over the Med. The flow does strengthen for a time next week.
In Summary there remains little chance of any significant dry weather over the course of the output tonight. There will again be plenty of rain in areas that could well do without it. For those looking for cold weather there seems little sign of that either tonight with the pattern that we have now remaining in situ for some considerable time to come. However, having said that the air that crosses the UK on the rear of exiting depressions could well be cold enough for some snowfall on hills, especially in the North but once more tonight there seems little sign of any meaningful cold and snowfall.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset