http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012112/ECH1-240.GIF?21-0

out to the end of January and still nothing to sing and dance about

So chilly and unsettled, with a low chance of wintryness for some (high ground favoured) at times in the near term. Potential for cold in the longer term but as with the winter so far the active Atlantic is modelled to be in control of the weather over the UK, giving us unsettled weather.

Not sure I'll get too upset at swings in the ECM op at t240 - none of the 10 day output was verifying better than 50/50 recently so getting too hung up on it at the mo seems a little daft

All control runs are at lower resolution than the operational run. That is the whole point of the control run. It's initiated with exactly the same data as the operational run, but run at the lower resolution which is also used for all the other runs in the ensemble. (The other runs in the ensemble - the "spaghetti" on the ensemble graphs - are lower-resolution runs in which the starting data have been tweaked, or "perturbed".)

The point of the control run is to act as a check on the operational run. If they diverge greatly, then it signals that there might be some small-scale feature only identifiable at higher resolution which might be having a big effect down the line. 

Back when I used to translate patents from German into English for a living, the standard translation of the word Kontrolle was, in fact, "check", because that is what it does, rather than "steer", which is what the English word "control" implies.

Ite begiining to feel a bit like that.

Todays more progressive Atalantic scuppers the chances of any(except hill) snow from the systems moving in on Friday/Saturday

The diving low scenario is the the only remaining hope before the end Of January.However it seems to be getting shorter and less promising just bringing us back to square one with either an Atlantic/Scand HP  standoff or zonality.

Winchester is a bit of a snow desert at the best of times ,but I increasingly feel that Janaury may pass without a single snowflake being observed!C'est La vie!

Ensembles have trended downwards. Repeated extreme cold shots coming off the Eastern Seaboard must be cooling the atlantic sufficient enough to allow the sub -5c 850Hpa isotherm to reach the UK ..the next bout of strong and zonal westerlies is now sufficiently cool enough to bring a little sleetiness to the south at times based on this seemingly ? 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Good evening. Here is the report from the 12 midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 21st 2014.

All models show an unsettled and changeable period between now and the start of next week. A band of rain is shown to be currently crossing the UK with clearer and more showery weather following on behind. Tomorrow will see the front bringing the rain only slowly clearing away East out into the North Sea with the rain clearing slowly. Elsewhere a showery West or NW flow blows with showers forming in organized bands both tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday a new trough delivers more appreciable wind and rain through the day and this will be repeated on Sunday with Saturday being the best of the weekend days with sunshine and showers most likely. Throughout this period temperatures will be up and down but never overly cold or mild over the period.

GFS tonight then shows next week and indeed beyond unsettled and occasionally windy with showers and longer spells of rain continuing in generally West or NW winds with a few brief Northerly incursions for some pepping up the potential for wintry showers at times but never substantial away from the high ground of the North.

The GFS Ensembles are nothing exceptional tonight whatever your preferences should be with plenty of unsettled weather with rain at times blown in on pressure systems crossing the Atlantic and reaching the UK via the West or NW. Temperatures look a smidgen below average overall sufficiently enough for some snow on high ground of the North at times but generally of little consequence.

UKMO starts the new week off with deep Low pressure moving ESE towards Scotland with a cool and showery WNW flow over the UK with some heavy showers perhaps with hail and thunder and snow over high ground in the North.

GEM shows the Low over Scotland next Monday sinking South over the UK and down into Europe with cold and showery weather with some hill snow at times. Late in the run continuing changeable weather seems likely as further troughs move across from the West and NW with more rain and temperatures returning to average.

NAVGEM pushes complex Low pressure out to the NW on Monday South over the UK with showers and longer spells of rain continuing well into the middle of next week.

ECM also continues changeable weather through next week with rain or showers at times, probably heavy and persistent at first but with increasingly lengthy drier periods between the rain bands later in the week as the slightly chilly conditions revert towards more average temperatures by the end of the run as winds turn Westerly.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts which I highly regard when looking at the probabilities of where we will be standing in 9 and 10 Days time have remained rock solid with the current pattern for what seems an age now and tonight's charts are no exception. In 9 or 10 days time it looks like we will still be staring down the barrel of a stand off between High pressure to the NE and SW with the UK lying on the Western peripherey of a North Sea trough with continuing spells of rain and showers in West or NW winds and temperatures near or a fraction below average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream continues to show very little change in trajectory and course over the coming few weeks as it continues to cross the Atlantic before turning South over the UK towards Southern Europe and then East over the Med. The flow does strengthen for a time next week.

In Summary there remains little chance of any significant dry weather over the course of the output tonight. There will again be plenty of rain in areas that could well do without it. For those looking for cold weather there seems little sign of that either tonight with the pattern that we have now remaining in situ for some considerable time to come. However, having said that the air that crosses the UK on the rear of exiting depressions could well be cold enough for some snowfall on hills, especially in the North but once more tonight there seems little sign of any meaningful cold and snowfall.

quite a wintry post Steve

Many Thanks

Here to help Marcus 

l

Hmmm, not sure Steve. I don't think I have ever seen sleet, let alone snow from a normal W'ly flow over lowland southern England. Not talking about a battleground set up/undercutting over existing cold pool etc.

The GEFS has trended cooler but in reality, this is even more depressing as it means it will just be more miserable with the rain. Snow will fall at times on northern hills and at times, on higher ground from say Midlands northwards but for the vast majority of us lowlanders/city dwellers, anything from the W will fall as rain... imho.

Also, any brief encroachment of continental air over the SE later this week , as per ensembles, will be very brief. Any transitional sleet/wet flakes over any higher parts in the SE will be pointless. I know many are eager to at least claim some snowflakes but when it comes to catching some magic by viewing a lampost, we have to ask ourselves, why??!!!! I'd rather grab an extra 40 winks at my age now

It will be interesting to find out Mike..that's for sure. I'm guessing it is just about possible to get some wintriness in the south in a 'normal westerly flow' provided it is direct and the jet stream is sufficiently strong enough. To be honest I'm not too sure about this myself. It has to be said that the eastern US is frigid  (and sustained sustained this time) , SST's are cooling and the jet stream will be strong earlier next week too.

Let's see what happens. 

Agreed Steve - we'll soon find out

Not giving up hope just yet but for me personally, winter finishes late Feb. Any snow in March on the S Coast is pointless, messy, dirty and quite annoying in fact

For coldies.

Oh dear Oh dear.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

I know its the pub run but I dont know why there isn't more interest in what GFS is showing - a spectacular FI if cold and snow is your thing (or at the very least, spectacular by this winter's standards, with at least 3 or 4 decent events thrown into the mix). All starts at 192 which is more interesting than these fairytale endings - although, having said that, anything after 96 or 120+ is FI at the moment.