theweatheroutlook

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roger63
21 January 2014 22:54:08

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0


A slow wet slider with aneaterly being picked up around 192.


There follows around 5 days of clod and then we are at Groundhog day 2 with the Azores HP and The Atlantic ganging up on  thesCandi HP at 348h.


  Its FI but still its the longest cold op I,ve seen for some time. 

Phil G
21 January 2014 22:55:20

l


Ensembles have trended downwards. Repeated extreme cold shots coming off the Eastern Seaboard must be cooling the atlantic sufficient enough to allow the sub -5c 850Hpa isotherm to reach the UK ..the next bout of strong and zonal westerlies is now sufficiently cool enough to bring a little sleetiness to the south at times based on this seemingly ? 


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


 


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Hmmm, not sure Steve. I don't think I have ever seen sleet, let alone snow from a normal W'ly flow over lowland southern England. Not talking about a battleground set up/undercutting over existing cold pool etc.


The GEFS has trended cooler but in reality, this is even more depressing as it means it will just be more miserable with the rain. Snow will fall at times on northern hills and at times, on higher ground from say Midlands northwards but for the vast majority of us lowlanders/city dwellers, anything from the W will fall as rain... imho.


Also, any brief encroachment of continental air over the SE later this week , as per ensembles, will be very brief. Any transitional sleet/wet flakes over any higher parts in the SE will be pointless. I know many are eager to at least claim some snowflakes but when it comes to catching some magic by viewing a lampost, we have to ask ourselves, why??!!!! I'd rather grab an extra 40 winks at my age now

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Witnessed this only last year for the first time where a westerly front met cold air over the country and we had about an inch of snow as the front passed through and no rain at all. The snow remained for a while.

Gooner
21 January 2014 22:57:54

A lovely snowy pub run tonight

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=348&mode=2


One of GFS's better runs of the Winter for sure

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
21 January 2014 22:59:28

GFS 18z FI looks pretty cold and snowy with a Scandi High in residence, or thereabouts, for much of the time! 😉

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



Yes good run from GFS tonight and chance of upgrades (and downgrades of course).

Gooner
21 January 2014 22:59:55

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/21/basis18/ukuk/rart/14012312_2_2118.gif


J F F  For the Northern crew

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arbroath 1320
21 January 2014 23:03:18

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/21/basis18/ukuk/rart/14012312_2_2118.gif


J F F  For the Northern crew

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Interesting though the BBC are having none of it according to tonight's forecast.
GGTTH
Arbroath 1320
21 January 2014 23:05:46

GFS 18z FI looks pretty cold and snowy with a Scandi High in residence, or thereabouts, for much of the time! 😉

Originally Posted by: Phil G 



Yes good run from GFS tonight and chance of upgrades (and downgrades of course).

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



Subtle differences in the 18z pre144, changes FI output completely compared to the 12z. Goes to show anythings possible as we head towards February.
GGTTH
Andy Woodcock
21 January 2014 23:07:34

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/21/basis18/ukuk/rart/14012312_2_2118.gif


J F F  For the Northern crew

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Yeh right, there is more chance of seeing Elvis live in penrith on Thursday than the amount of snow indicated on that chart!

It's not called the pub run for no good reason.

Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Karl Guille
21 January 2014 23:13:56

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/21/basis18/ukuk/rart/14012312_2_2118.gif


J F F  For the Northern crew

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



It's my birthday on Thursday, any chance of slipping that down a couple of hundred miles! 😉 Certainly closer to Caz than me that's for sure!!

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Nordic Snowman
21 January 2014 23:20:33

Definitely shows how things could pan out. The Scandi High has already shown to be a force and if some of that colder air edges more WSW, we could set up for some snow in association with sliders. Unlikely for me on the S coast but many areas could get lucky. Slowly getting there....

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
ITSY
21 January 2014 23:30:41

The short ensembles show the op being one of the milder few by the end of high res, with a notable increase in the number of cold runs as they all start to develop the affect of that arctic high

Quantum
22 January 2014 00:53:27

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012118/gfsnh-10-384.png?18


This is the first major strat warming I have seen this winter, the polar vortex has been destroyed rather than simply displaceded. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
22 January 2014 00:57:32

Pretty far out, but one possible explanation for the decent NAVGEM runs.


This model is predicting a massive expansion of sea ice in the newfoundland area


http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicen_nowcast_anim30d.gif


notice the forecast towards the end. Does the GFS take into account sea ice? 


 


 


Interestingly the NAVGEM does have support from the JMA, and they both are wanting quite a substantial cold spell by 144h. 


 


Tbh even the UKMO is getting there


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012112/UW144-21.GIF?21-18


 


Its really only the two big players that are against it with GEM sitting on the fence. 


 


In fact I am going to stick my neck out here and say we are in for a very cold february the reasoning being the northern blocking has been good (I mean the AO has been moderately negative pretty much all month!) all january and the long range models are really keen to keep it that way. And indeed with a possible SSW event it looks unlikely we are going to have a +AO dominated feb.


Meanwhile the SSTs are continue to drop, the tripole gets stronge with every day and sea ice is forming. Even with these factors not with standing, just by chance a WAA event has to happen sooner or later and it becomes much more probable in late winter.


 


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Karl Guille
22 January 2014 06:11:20
Steady as she goes this morning with the eventual positioning of the Azores and Scandi Highs all important as we move into next week. Plenty that can go wrong still but encouraging nonetheless!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
22 January 2014 07:10:27

Steady as she goes this morning with the eventual positioning of the Azores and Scandi Highs all important as we move into next week. Plenty that can go wrong still but encouraging nonetheless!

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


indeed Karl, UKMO at 144 not a bad looking chart


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-21.GIF?22-06


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-7.GIF?22-06


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Sevendust
22 January 2014 07:20:55

In isolation, the T144 chart looks promising but that's as far as I'd go.


We are at the time of year when even the Atlantic westerlies are pretty cold although probably not cold enough for lowland southern Britain.


I think the Scottish mountains could do OK in the next fortnight

Gooner
22 January 2014 07:23:34

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


cooler few days are clear to see

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
22 January 2014 07:27:40

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2763.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2764.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn27617.png


wont be like it come the day but worth keeping an eye on


 


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arcus
22 January 2014 07:28:57


Steady as she goes this morning with the eventual positioning of the Azores and Scandi Highs all important as we move into next week. Plenty that can go wrong still but encouraging nonetheless!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


indeed Karl, UKMO at 144 not a bad looking chart


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-21.GIF?22-06


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-7.GIF?22-06


 


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Don't see the UKMO 144h as a good chart - similar to the ECM at 144, and that goes mammarus verticus pretty soon afterwards.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
KevBrads1
22 January 2014 07:38:17
Let's compare the models from a week ago for today

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=14&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=192&map=0 

Too deep the low about 25mb, the block too far east and south

GFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&heure=0&jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&archive=1 

Again low too deep and the block too far south and east

GEM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=12&jour=15&annee=2014 

Closer but the low a touch south and the centre of block is further east

JMA

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?jour=15&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=168&map=&nh=0 

Low too deep and the block further east,
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Karl Guille
22 January 2014 07:43:44

ECM 00z Op serves as a useful reminder that nothing overly cold or sustained is guaranteed at this point in time!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012200/ECM1-216.GIF?22-12

St. Sampson
Guernsey
KevBrads1
22 January 2014 07:48:49


Steady as she goes this morning with the eventual positioning of the Azores and Scandi Highs all important as we move into next week. Plenty that can go wrong still but encouraging nonetheless!

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


indeed Karl, UKMO at 144 not a bad looking chart


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-21.GIF?22-06


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-7.GIF?22-06


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Don't see the UKMO 144h as a good chart - similar to the ECM at 144, and that goes mammarus verticus pretty soon afterwards.

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



You are living in North Yorkshire, the low is to the south of you, it has cold air advecting from the east over you.......

Hard to tell what it is going to do at 168hrs because we can't be certain but it is dragging colder air than ECM

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
nickl
22 January 2014 08:19:30


Steady as she goes this morning with the eventual positioning of the Azores and Scandi Highs all important as we move into next week. Plenty that can go wrong still but encouraging nonetheless!

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


indeed Karl, UKMO at 144 not a bad looking chart


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-21.GIF?22-06


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-7.GIF?22-06


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Don't see the UKMO 144h as a good chart - similar to the ECM at 144, and that goes mammarus verticus pretty soon afterwards.

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



It is? Looks very different to me and from a coldie perspective, a shame that its currently isolated although it is a solution we have seen from various runs recently.
Rob K
22 January 2014 08:21:25
The 00z GFS ens look pretty cold with the iphone of the milder ones. The control run is fairly tasty compared to most of this winter's output.

UKMO is nice at 144 too. I know the ECM goes wrong later but the UKMO has the high better positioned.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
roger63
22 January 2014 08:59:58


ECM 00z Op serves as a useful reminder that nothing overly cold or sustained is guaranteed at this point in time!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012200/ECM1-216.GIF?22-12


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Karl reasonable cross model agreement for slider LP close to UK between 144 and1 92,The devil is in the detailed positioning.The next stage is getting easterlies in.ECM illustrates the quick death scenario with Atlantic Lp,s hard on the heels  of the slider. 


On the face of it the position is more favorable for easterles than the current set upThere is strong HP build to the NE/E an lots of cold air to  the east(see Meto 144h).


The GFS ensembles offer some encouragement.At 192h 60% have an easterly of sorts over the UK.This drops quickly to 40% by 240h but this level then persists out to 360h.


Choice of the ensembles


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=19&mode=0&carte=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=360&code=12&mode=0&carte=0


Too early to get excited yet, but there is still a  possibilty of som elowland snow right at the end of January

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