Trouble is we have no idea if that does effect our winter weather, does it rely on other conditions? if i does have an effect how soon would we see that ?

I'd be worried that if the stratosphere becomes as warm as that chart shows over Greenland and Scandinavia, then the troposphere would be cold in those areas, i.e. under low pressure, simply because warmth all the way from the edge of space down to the surface would be unlikely.

But I do understand it ain't that simple.

I think it was stratospheric warming of some degree that helped to alter the pattern we saw last winter, from a very unsettled, westerly based pattern that we saw in the second half of December 2012 which lasted until just after the start of January 2013. I can't recall whether or not the cold spell we saw in mid-January last year was caused by SSW, but I do recall the atlantic did come back into play again in the final week of last January and the first few days of February, but that spell proved to be a fairly short-lived affair. I do believe though that it was SSW that helped set up the pattern of late February which in turn led to the very cold March. 

As I explain in my video today, this SSW is in the extended, fantasy island range and should be treated with as much skepticism as any other FI output. Then your probably looking at another 2-3 weeks before it start's to down-well to the trop and then you don't know how the pieces are going to fit together once the bomb has been thrown into the atmopshere - Obviously significant blocking would result somewhere, but that doesn't guarantee we'll be on the cold side.

I'm sure the Met are keeping a watchful eye on this, but it'll be a while yet before they would start to move their extended forecasts to reflect a colder outlook.

This SSW (if it actually happens) could be something that's more important for March and even April, to be honest.

Indeed , I think more than just warming higher up is needed for us to get a HP that favours UK cold

Post the rubbish then Rob, I haven't read any , I have seen posts questioning if it does infuence our weather or where a block ( if any) sets up.

It isn't rubbish, your post seems a little harsh

We've already had an extended (more like neverending) spell of wet & windy weather- since mid-December! You are right that there hasn't been any mention of dry weather, be it mild or cold, for ages now. Not since we had the high pressure that was centred over or just to the south of the UK at the start of December anyway.

When GFS models an Atlantic onslaught in FI but with the jet tracking south of normal and the storms running into a wall at our longitude, we often see the storm track adjusted south quite notably as the timeframes draw nearer.

We're already seeing strong examples of this in the medium term.

Trouble is, the Atlantic adjustment required from the 12z GFS post-192 hours is about as big as I've ever seen when blocking is signalled, so I'm not sure if the blocking will be strong enough this time... depends if GFS is vastly underestimating it or not.

Meanwhile, UKMO is looking quite daft, swinging wildly between the LP not phasing, tracking ESE, and the LP phasing, tracking NE. It's very irritating and rather worrying too!

Both GEM and GFS show setups capable of producing exceptional rainfall in the UK post day 7... I really hope those don't verify, as the impacts would be terrible.

After such a horrendous, god-awful winter though you can't blame people for looking for something, anything, that will at least end this seemingly never-ending Atlantic onslaught - Even Noah would be getting fed up with this deluge by now!

That is one post Rob and probably posted without thought,  hardly can do down as a lot of rubbish though, I think most know the Met can't be commenting on something that has only just started to show and something that needs help from elsewhere in order for us to tap into some cold weather, they wouldn't be making any comment for at least 10 days or longer IMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012612/ECH1-120.GIF?26-0

ECM so far

That LP certainly develops a fairly explosively from the t96 chart - not out of character for the winter so far but you'd have to question the run from as early as this point. Would presumably take a pretty perfect phasing with the jet to deepen like that, which if it's wrong would have a knock on re interaction with the Scandi block.

Mild or cold from here I suspect things will look different when we get to this time

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

ECM again illustrates England's canny knack of being home to any less cold slices of the atmosphere available at this latitude.

At least he is mentioning Oxford as seeing snow falling so might have a dusting in the morning.....might

A number of posters and lurkers will sympathise with your thoughts Rob.  Well said that man!

WI

well the lurkers and posters should realise Rob has quoted one post, not lots......just being a bit more accurate , of course Rob is correct with his comment on one particular post , but many posts in here have had discussions over what a warming would mean, a discussion in the discussion thread