Good evening. Here is the report on today's midday outputs from the NWP for today Sunday January 26th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a deep depression close to NW Scotland with a cold and showery WNW flow over the UK. The showers will be heavy and wintry at times with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible almost anywhere but more likely near western coasts and hills. Through the first half of the week the parent Low pressure slips South down the Western side of the UK and then away to the South maintaining the unsettled and sometimes wet weather with temperatures on the low side of average. Pressure then builds strongly from Scandinavia briefly over Thursday and into Friday with drier and cold weather on an Easterly breeze which falls light later in the week allowing frost at night.
GFS then takes us out of the week and into the weekend showing the first of yet another series of deep depressions, many ending up over the UK with the resultant wet and windy conditions keeping things over the flood stricken parts of the UK very depressing indeed. Temperatures remain close to normal but it will feel chilly at times and there will continue to be some snowfall on higher ground at times, especially in the North.
The GFS Ensembles show a chillier period this week as the Low pressure responsible slips South of the UK. It then turns very Atlantic dominated again as Low pressure brings milder weather with periods of rain and showers in strong winds and temperatures returning to close to or slightly above average values later.
UKMO shows the start of next weekend with a Low pressure trough having cleared to the East of the UK with a spell of rain having cleared to the East followed by NW winds and wintry showers across the North and west later.
GEM shows a reversion back to Atlantic based weather next weekend with periods of rain and strong winds moving East and NE across the UK towards the end of the run replacing the rather chilly conditions of this week with temperatures rather closer to average.
NAVGEM shows the only chance of colder air in association with a block to the East offering some resistance to the Atlantic onslaught next weekend as Low pressure areas disrupt and weaken in situ over the UK with rain bearing fronts slowing and stalling across the UK with rain and snow in places to begin with before all areas away from the NE become less cold and wet as a deep depression lies to the west of Ireland.
ECM tonight also shows the Atlantic winning out next weekend as a front crosses East with rain then wintry showers. Then as we move into the new week the weather remains and if anything becomes more unsettled as Low pressure becomes ensconced across the UK once more.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight indicate a bias towards Low pressure to be most likely to be situated to the west of Scotland with SW winds and unstable air across the UK with rain and showers across ll areas and temperatures back up to average levels with any cold from the block to the East back to the other side of the North Sea.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream shows the flow maintaining it's current trajectory for next week to the South of the UK. The trend in the latter stages of the output tonight is for the flow to strengthen yet again and shift position to cross Southern Britain in Week 2.
In Summary tonight the weather is going to become rather chilly this week but apart from some scattered snow flurries there seems little chance of any widespread snowfall anywhere. However, it will feel more seasonal for a time as winds shift easterly for a short time after midweek. Later in the period the Atlantic regains supremacy with most models showing an easy victory for the Atlantic with little prospect of anything other than transient snowfall away from the high ground of the North and NE before temperatures return nearer to average and what's more important in my estimation a very real possibility of much more rainfall to add further misery to those areas afflicted by floods.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY