When GFS models an Atlantic onslaught in FI but with the jet tracking south of normal and the storms running into a wall at our longitude, we often see the storm track adjusted south quite notably as the timeframes draw nearer.
We're already seeing strong examples of this in the medium term.
Trouble is, the Atlantic adjustment required from the 12z GFS post-192 hours is about as big as I've ever seen when blocking is signalled, so I'm not sure if the blocking will be strong enough this time... depends if GFS is vastly underestimating it or not.
Meanwhile, UKMO is looking quite daft, swinging wildly between the LP not phasing, tracking ESE, and the LP phasing, tracking NE. It's very irritating and rather worrying too!
Both GEM and GFS show setups capable of producing exceptional rainfall in the UK post day 7... I really hope those don't verify, as the impacts would be terrible.
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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