About time we were teased with a decent easterly flow eh Doc!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021200/ECM1-240.GIF?12-12

Yep I'm stll with Q & MM for around the 18th/22nd for a change (UKMO & ECM) although GFS bring more bad weather back

I'll wait for a few more days to see, either this comes off or the weather will continue as it is and create two new island from the Thames and south of Bristol

ECM does indeed become an attractive tease at +240; but that big bruiser GFS 0z having (almost) gone on the wagon at the same time promptly relapses into an Atlantic binge immediately thereafter. Still, it's only FI

More chance of Arsenal winning 5-0 tonight Karl

No support from GEFS 0h for a Scandivian entry.Just continuing zonal and wet

Yeah, interesting though.

I would rule out some snow on Monday into Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Meanwhile Friday is looking like a very wet day for many especially for the south.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

Carol just indicated a possible improvement next week

That could mean anything of course given the current volatility

There may well be something of a pressure build to the east as per ECM and even GFS promises some improvement as the focus of the zonality is a tad further north

For the south, meaningful winter is nearly over, such as its been

That's not to say it won't be cold with some snow, it's just generally nuisance value once we get this far

Good morning folks. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs as I see them from the NWP for this morning Wednesday February 12th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models illustrate a very volatile weather pattern between now and the end of the weekend as all models show two separate storm systems crossing NE over Ireland and the North through this period. As a result winds will become very strong with gales and severe gales likely later today and again later on Friday and overnight. In addition a spell of very heavy rain will sweep NE across the UK today and again on Friday afternoon with clearer, colder and very showery weather at other times when some snow could fall over the hills and at least some moderation of the wind would likely occur.

Then next week GFS shows unsettled weather maintained as further Low pressure slip ESE across the South and then all of the UK by midweek with yet more copious rain events for many and some snow likely in the North where it will be colder. The rest of the run settles into a changeable Westerly weather type between Low pressure areas crossing East to the North and High pressure to the South. Troughs would continue to cross East in the strong Westerly flow with the heaviest rain in the North and West with some showery interludes in between. Temperatures would become close to or perhaps a little above average across the South at times.

UKMO shows Tuesday being cold with a filling Low across Southern Britain with rain and showers scattered about falling as sleet or snow over the hills. Precipitation would be less widespread than on previous days though under light winds.

GEM builds pressure to the North of Scandinavia strongly this morning with cold Continental air moving in on the back end of depressions slipping slowly SE across NW Europe. This would increase the potential for sleet or snow for a time in temperatures much lower than anything we have seen thus far this year though on this run it appears temporary as by Day 10 the Atlantic wind and fronts push the cold back north and East in attendance of rainfall.

NAVGEM anchores Low pressure across Northern Europe the UK and the Eastern Atlantic maintaining a windy and unsettled theme with spells of rain and showers on a mostly Westerly flow. Some snow could occur on northern hills at times.

ECM today shows an interesting solution which also like GEM leads to a very cold Easterly late in the run as pressure rises over Britain midweek giving a 48hr of dry weather for the SW. Pressure then becomes very high North of Scandinavia with Low pressure slipped down over Europe leading to disrupting troughs near the SW of Britain bring yet more rain late in the week here with snow over the moors while Eastern areas see a cold feed from Europe bringing with it the risk of snow showers and much colder weather.

The ECM 7 to 10 Day Mean Charts this morning are resilient to any significant change from the pattern they have shown over recent days in as much that Low pressure lies South of Iceland and High pressure near the Azores with the Jet flow to the South of the UK maintaining a preference to keep the UK under relatively mild Westerly winds with rain at times, heaviest towards the NW. There must be scant support for any High pressure North of Scandinavia within the pack as pressure there is shown to average no higher than 1010-1015mbs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles are not very supportive of the colder evolutions mentioned above with a trend of fairly average value temperatures looking likely with rain at times though less in amounts than recent times.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows and reflects it's main member outputs this morning in keeping the Jet flow either over or still to the South of the UK maintaining the formation of deep Low pressure centres over or to the North of Britain as it drifts a couple of hundred miles further North than currently later in the run.

In Summary this morning the output is once more becoming very fascinating viewing as the models jostle around with various solutions to get us out of the current rut of Atlantic depression after Atlantic depressions crossing the UK. On the one hand we have GFS and NAVGEM who both show an unrelenting Atlantic dominated pattern with further Low pressure areas keeping the basic wet and windy theme going while UKMO, GEM and ECM show in my opinion a strong chance that we could have a switch to a more Continental dominated pattern at least for a time. In the case of the charts shown specifics for next week should this verify are unimportant at the moment and would change run to run. It is a dangerous course of synoptics to undergo though as it could swing the pendulum one of two ways for the flood stricken folks in the South. If the Easterly feed is allowed to take hold it could at long last make for some useful dry weather to at least drain some of the flooding away while on the other hand with a cold block to the NE we run the risk of Low pressure ramming into the block over what could be a UK battleground with further heavy rainfall or indeed snowfall in those areas that least need it. We will have to see how this dangerous pattern develops over subsequent runs if at all and to see whether it gains support from other models and indeed their own ensembles.

Thank you Martin

That would not suprise me in the least if we have a large wedgeful of snow on top of the what we have now 

I see the stroppy tart ECM is lifting her skirt again. But no support from the ens. Would be an incredible spell of weather if we get the Beast. The media would go into overdrive with doomladen Climate change scare stories. "Its the end of the world"

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021206/gfsnh-0-156.png?6

MM's window of change

GEM and ECM are very alike, now would,'t it be funny .................................

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021206/gfsnh-0-192.png?6

The unsettled theme continues

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140212/00/ecmt850.240.png

This truly is a remarkable ECM chart. Even though it will never come off; I can't stop admiring it. 

I think the thing to take from this is the growing trend for higher pressure to our north.  Most models going for it in some degree mostly to our north and north east -  with some moving the pressure back into the continent.

Whats impressive with the ECM is it keeps showing a very cool pool of air over north western russia entering the mix.  When we have had similar pressure rises to our east this winter - this is exactly what we have lacked.  an injection of very cold air to get the HP rotating towards us.  Instead we  just got cooler air that just didnt have the oomph to arrive properly.

If that came off, with all the water around here we could have a Frost Fair that would put the feeble efforst in the 1800s to shame! 

Stranger things have happened  , for once ECM might just be right

Would be a rare event for this winter, where I give GFS a points victory to date. However, I firmly believe ECM is onto something this time.

The outlook is still uncertain, the models are showing no consistancy; none of them have a clue what to do with the trough and the anticyclone. There are several possibilities.

1) Slide the trough completely: assuming that arctic  high remains around the sweet spot (noya zemla), this would usser in a blast of frigidity that could be quite memorable; the ECM shows this scenario. If the arctic high pushes north of the sweet spot we would get less cold southeasterlies and end up in a perhaps snizzly regime (this is unlikely and is currently not being shown). If it sinks south we will end up with a more traditional scanadanavian easterly with snow showers and cold days/nights but nothing that amazing - this is what the GEM goes for.

2) Push the trough through completely: I don't think any models are currently going for this, so this is perhaps an unlikely situ. If this did happen, it would not be mild note; returning polar westerlies will return and they are now moving over very cold water; the snow risk will increase the longer they prevail (the reason we have perhaps only had snow now is because the westerlies have lasted so long).

3) Break the trough up, slide one half and push the other through. This is the 6Z scenario on the GFS. It is really quite common and has happened at least 3 times this winter and a few times last winter; so the weather conditions are very easy to intepret. A week occluded front of drizzle and perhaps sleet in the north is followed by a tightly bound low with well defined frontal systems that bring heavy rain to most parts of the UK. After the cold front follows once again we enter rmP conditions which will again likely bring snow or wintry showers to the west. This situ is more likely than 2).

4) Stall the low over the UK. This is the most favoured scenario at the moment, and the outcome can either be a continental or atlantic victory. This scenario is likely to bring a period of snow for the North east, as usual it will probably be north of the midlands. If the atlantic wins then the outcome will be almost identical to 2) or 3), if the continental flow wins then there will be a very gradual change to colder weather, and it will be painfully gradual with cold air struggling to advect towards the UK. 

At the moment I would say they are probably equally likely despite obvious preferences among the models. Uncertainty is unusually high so it would be naive to plump for any one situ at this stage. Note though, that a continental feed is probably more likely to win than at other such points this year, and even if it doesn't the westerlies have a vastly improved snow potential to a month ago, that isn't much consilation for the south though which is likely to see more rain and wind. 

Yes but there are caveats to this reasoning.

a) Negative feedbacks are becoming more important with time. The land isn't cooling down anymore in february but the sea is. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.2.10.2014.gif there is a very strong tripole developing; one ascociates such a pattern with nothern blocking and cold weather for the UK. Also note the massive increase in sea ice in the newfoundland and canadian coast area, this is also acting as a negative feedback.

b) The jet stream is quite far south even now, it wouldn't have to go much further south for us to be fully on the cold side of it. Usually zonal conditions are asociated with wet weather in scotland, however parts of scotland have actually been drier than average. Even cold sectors are capable of giving cold weather and there are no warm sectors in sight.

c) Signs of some of that weak strat warming propagating to the surface. We have a mosnter siberian high in play, and a weaker greenland-svalbard high in place (which is integral to us), the atlantic train is clearly struggling to get through, and has virtually no chance of making it into scanadnavia; even if the atlantic wins this time, conditions over Europe are set to improve; there will be another opportunity.

d) The atlantic is weakining, I talked about some signs of cyclosis being shown; and this is still evident though perhaps not as much so. For instance compare these two NAEFES charts for 850hpa temp avg

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-1-6.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-1-180.png?0

Notice how the first has a load of cold air in the baffin bay and off canada, but the 2nd has warm air everywhere? Warm air in that region is not conductive to a zonal pattern, and warm air over greenland is conductive to northern blocking.  

Good points there, let's hope the continental air mass wins and we have some respite from the constant atlantic conveyor belt. ECM / GFS / GEM will all be interesting tonight.

Beware the rogue ECM run.
GFS suite still really not having anything to do with it:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

GFS are notoriously bad at picking up on such changes though. GFS has been on the money this season, because it has been so relentlessly zonal - doesn't mean it won't miss changes when they are really going to happen.