Good morning folks. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs as I see them from the NWP for this morning Wednesday February 12th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models illustrate a very volatile weather pattern between now and the end of the weekend as all models show two separate storm systems crossing NE over Ireland and the North through this period. As a result winds will become very strong with gales and severe gales likely later today and again later on Friday and overnight. In addition a spell of very heavy rain will sweep NE across the UK today and again on Friday afternoon with clearer, colder and very showery weather at other times when some snow could fall over the hills and at least some moderation of the wind would likely occur.
Then next week GFS shows unsettled weather maintained as further Low pressure slip ESE across the South and then all of the UK by midweek with yet more copious rain events for many and some snow likely in the North where it will be colder. The rest of the run settles into a changeable Westerly weather type between Low pressure areas crossing East to the North and High pressure to the South. Troughs would continue to cross East in the strong Westerly flow with the heaviest rain in the North and West with some showery interludes in between. Temperatures would become close to or perhaps a little above average across the South at times.
UKMO shows Tuesday being cold with a filling Low across Southern Britain with rain and showers scattered about falling as sleet or snow over the hills. Precipitation would be less widespread than on previous days though under light winds.
GEM builds pressure to the North of Scandinavia strongly this morning with cold Continental air moving in on the back end of depressions slipping slowly SE across NW Europe. This would increase the potential for sleet or snow for a time in temperatures much lower than anything we have seen thus far this year though on this run it appears temporary as by Day 10 the Atlantic wind and fronts push the cold back north and East in attendance of rainfall.
NAVGEM anchores Low pressure across Northern Europe the UK and the Eastern Atlantic maintaining a windy and unsettled theme with spells of rain and showers on a mostly Westerly flow. Some snow could occur on northern hills at times.
ECM today shows an interesting solution which also like GEM leads to a very cold Easterly late in the run as pressure rises over Britain midweek giving a 48hr of dry weather for the SW. Pressure then becomes very high North of Scandinavia with Low pressure slipped down over Europe leading to disrupting troughs near the SW of Britain bring yet more rain late in the week here with snow over the moors while Eastern areas see a cold feed from Europe bringing with it the risk of snow showers and much colder weather.
The ECM 7 to 10 Day Mean Charts this morning are resilient to any significant change from the pattern they have shown over recent days in as much that Low pressure lies South of Iceland and High pressure near the Azores with the Jet flow to the South of the UK maintaining a preference to keep the UK under relatively mild Westerly winds with rain at times, heaviest towards the NW. There must be scant support for any High pressure North of Scandinavia within the pack as pressure there is shown to average no higher than 1010-1015mbs.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles are not very supportive of the colder evolutions mentioned above with a trend of fairly average value temperatures looking likely with rain at times though less in amounts than recent times.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows and reflects it's main member outputs this morning in keeping the Jet flow either over or still to the South of the UK maintaining the formation of deep Low pressure centres over or to the North of Britain as it drifts a couple of hundred miles further North than currently later in the run.
In Summary this morning the output is once more becoming very fascinating viewing as the models jostle around with various solutions to get us out of the current rut of Atlantic depression after Atlantic depressions crossing the UK. On the one hand we have GFS and NAVGEM who both show an unrelenting Atlantic dominated pattern with further Low pressure areas keeping the basic wet and windy theme going while UKMO, GEM and ECM show in my opinion a strong chance that we could have a switch to a more Continental dominated pattern at least for a time. In the case of the charts shown specifics for next week should this verify are unimportant at the moment and would change run to run. It is a dangerous course of synoptics to undergo though as it could swing the pendulum one of two ways for the flood stricken folks in the South. If the Easterly feed is allowed to take hold it could at long last make for some useful dry weather to at least drain some of the flooding away while on the other hand with a cold block to the NE we run the risk of Low pressure ramming into the block over what could be a UK battleground with further heavy rainfall or indeed snowfall in those areas that least need it. We will have to see how this dangerous pattern develops over subsequent runs if at all and to see whether it gains support from other models and indeed their own ensembles.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset