Good evening. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKM, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday February 15th 2014.
All models show the powerful storm of the last 24 hours now positioned near Eastern Scotland and through the weekend it will move away North and fill with winds and rain lessening to modest levels through the weekend to end up seeing most of the UK dry tomorrow. By Monday a much weaker Low weakens further but not quick enough to prevent a spell of rain moving across the UK from the west on Monday, heavy in places. Then as this moves away East Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet enough days with sunshine and a lot of dry weather if rather chilly conditions before new troughs from Low pressure to the NW bring increasing winds and rain in from the West by the end of the day.
GFS then shows the end of next week with changeable conditions prevailing with rain at times as troughs in association with Low pressure to the North and NW cross East in the flow, a pattern that persists for the remainder of the output this morning in temperatures close to average and possibly a little above for a time towards the SE.
UKMO shows next Friday as a windy day with Low pressure close to Northern Scotland with strong Westerly flow with showers or spells of rain at times in temperatures close to average.
GEM shows a trough crossing East later next week with a showery and chilly NW flow following for a time giving way to a strong and milder SW flow with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West.
NAVGEM also shows an active cold front crossing East next weekend with a chilly and showery NW flow following with wintry showers, especially in the North.
ECM today shows Low pressure to the North as Scotland similar to UKMO with a strong West flow bringing rain or showers at times to end next week. Thereafter Low pressure becomes a dominant feature across the North Atlantic with a strong SW flow with rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts this morning continue the pattern broadly resembling the operational so an Atlantic based Low pressure area is likely to be bathing the area in SW winds with rain at times, heaviest and windiest towards the NW while temperatures probably become a little milder later.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles today indicate a mobile Atlantic pattern persisting through the two weeks with rain at times for all areas in blustery WSW winds. Temperatures will for the most part never be far from average though it could become rather mild for a time in the SE early in the second half of the run.
The Jet Stream still shows signs of weakening markedly in the next week with the resultant quieter period of weather affecting the UK. In week 2 it shows signs of strengthening again though not to the extent of recently.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
In Summary the weather still shows signs of becoming much less severe as we move through next week. All areas will see rain at times but some good dry periods in between and temperatures shouldn't create any problems either apart from occasional touches of frost here and there. Prolonged dry weather however looks unlikely with low pressure in control up to the NW firing troughs East or NE across the UK at times. Conditions for flooded areas will ease very slowly but the additional rain next week will slow any major improvements for some time yet.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset