http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021618/gfsnh-0-312.png?18

GFS still keen on an unsettled start to March

I would love to see the ECM 264 chart this morning , particularly the 850's temp charts as the one at 240 is weird! Still some cold charts showing up after 180 hours from the North West - probably never come into fruition. Plenty of rain about though

Martin

Models this morning a disaster in terms of rainfall. At least no wind damage which is some comfort

Even today's rain has been upgraded and some heavy showers expected in the SE corner tonight and tomorrow, when we thought we could get away with a dry few days ahead of thursdays main event

ECM shows another four LP,s Fri/Sat, Mon,Thu. keeping the rain going.The only other feature is a build of HP to the east of the UKin FI shown also  by GFS and GEM.That could  take us  back  to  the  more blocked but still wet  mid january scenario.However HP is much further east.

Good morning folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 17th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a weakening area of Low pressure crossing into the Uk from the West in attendance of a band of rain and drizzle through today and tonight. Following on behind is a spell of slack Westerly winds and occasional showers, some of which could be heavy especially tomorrow. By Thursday winds will increase from the West with bands of rain, heavy in places sweeping East and followed by colder and very blustery Westerly winds and squally showers with hail, thunder and sleet and snow all possible over the hills in the North. By Sunday a transient ridge of High pressure is shown to move across from the West with drier weather for a time with less wind and some sunshine to end the weekend.

GFS then shows a continuation of Westerly winds, strong at times with spells of rain followed by colder and more showery weather in between. It will often be windy and relatively mild.

UKMO shows next Sunday with a ridge of High pressure across the UK giving a dry and brighter period before the next Low looks like trundling across from the west to start next week.

GEM has strong SW winds throughout the end of it's run with frequent troughs moving NE in the flow bringing rain and showers across at times in temperatures relatively mild for the time of year.

NAVGEM also shows next Sunday's ridge quickly giving way to more cloud and rain as a strong SW flow sets up next week with deep Low pressure to the NW.

ECM today also shows Low pressure to the NW with spells of rain and showers running quickly NE across the UK on occasion with temperatures well up to average overall.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure still up to the NW with SW winds for all and fronts delivering rain at times in generally mild conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles show sustained and unsettled weather under Atlantic domination of Westerly or SW winds. All areas are shown to receive rain at times with strong winds at times too and temeratures largely close to average.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

The Jet Stream shows an undulating pattern throughout with the axis involving the UK in it's movements with a strengthening of the flow again looking likely next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary the pattern remains unchanged with further spells of rain and strong winds affecting all areas at times throughout the next few weeks. While the severe weather of late looks unlikely the additional rain will hamper and possibly worsen the flooding conditions still affecting some areas through the period. It should remain relatively mild over the UK throughout.

Perhaps when the weather pattern in place over the USA finally changes, whenever that is, it will also in turn help to alter the pattern we have here. The weather over in the US seems to have had quite a hand in our soggy winter, from various media reports I've heard recently.

I pointed out in December that the UK rarely gets a decent winter when the USA is in the freezer.

Nobody took me seriously at the time.

Maybe so, Maunder. That said, I'm fairly sure I read somewhere a while back that parts of the USA had a pretty notable cold spell back in early 1979 at the same time as the UK was experiencing a severe winter. Could be wrong there though.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021706/gfs-0-84.png?6

GFS winds up thursday's event into another storm.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021706/gfsnh-1-162.png?6

Another push of extremely cold air into North America and the north atlantic. Can only mean more trouble for us

Looks unsettled for sure

Yes, after a quieter, albeit unsettled week, it is looking like back to square 1 from next weekend. GFS 06z in particular looks a rainfest into FI.

It's difficult to see a way out of this pattern.

Euro 4 picks up tomorrows convection. Currently a lot rain falling in Wales and the west country, pushing into the Thames valley

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/17/basis06/ukuk/prty/14021818_1706.gif

Hi all,

Having a look at a couple of longer range models for today's video update;

Drier March - Colder April?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

All very experimental and speclative of course - To be honest I'm struggling for things to talk about in this "rinse/repeat" pattern, LOL.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021712/gfsnh-0-174.png?12

Back to square one very soon.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021712/gfsnh-0-216.png?12

A familiar picture

ECM looks a little drier for the south, with high pressure over Europe trying to ridge up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021712/ECH1-240.GIF?17-0

The unsettled theme continues

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAGEM and ECM plus ensemble data and Jet Stream report from that available, the report taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a weakening Low pressure moving into the West of the UK with the rain of today in the west making it's way Eastwards while becoming much lighter generally. A weak Westerly flow is then shown through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and drier spells for many but with a lot of cloud. Later on Wednesday and Thursday winds will increase with cloud and rain spreading in from the west through Wednesday night and lasting into Thursday before a strong westerly flow brings showers or longer spells of rain across all areas through the period Thursday to Saturday with a ridge of High pressure moving quickly East over the UK later on Saturday with a drier interlude for all later in the day.

GFS then shows Sunday as another day when SW winds will be increasing with cloud and rain spreading across from the West through the day. Through the rest of the run the weather remains very mobile in a strong and gusty SW flow with rain or showers at times and strong winds too always between South and West.

UKMO shows a mild SW flow to close it's run next Monday with cloudy skies and rain or drizzle at times and with a cold front approaching from the West by Tuesday heavier rain will be on the horizon.

GEM has very unsettled weather continuing with the same SW flow as UKMO at 144hrs with Low pressure to the North maintaining spells of rain and showers at times for all in brisk Westerly winds.

NAVGEM has a mild SW flow too early next week with increasingly wet weather expected as pressure falls and troughs cross steadily NE over the UK with spells of rain and strong winds increasing with time.

ECM tonight also has the SW'ly to start next week but the operational has higher pressure over Europe with the worst of the rain affecting the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas while seeing some rain have longer dry spells in between.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts suggest a rather suspect operational tonight as the mean follows the pattern of the last week maintaining a preference to keep Low pressure close to the NW of the UK with SW winds carrying rain bearing fronts and showers overall areas at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of temperatures close to average with rain at times in mild SW winds. There remains little evidence of a major pattern shift anytime soon.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

The Jet Stream continues to show a generally weaker feed across the Atlantic and the UK this week before it strengthens again next week in a sine wave pattern.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary tonight there remains little overall change tonight in what we have been seeing over recent days. There doesn't look like being a repeat of the recent powerful storms though windy weather will still be likely with rain at times for all in generally mild conditions considering the time of year.

Think you won the bet easily nordic.

Absolutely awful outlook, all hints of blocking have vanished. I thought 2011 was bad. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021718/gfsnh-0-300.png?18

Could be a miserable outlook even in the long term

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3124.gif

Watch this epic northern blocking will appear in April giving us false hope for a BBQ Summer. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

shows a cooler start to March