Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAGEM and ECM plus ensemble data and Jet Stream report from that available, the report taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a weakening Low pressure moving into the West of the UK with the rain of today in the west making it's way Eastwards while becoming much lighter generally. A weak Westerly flow is then shown through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and drier spells for many but with a lot of cloud. Later on Wednesday and Thursday winds will increase with cloud and rain spreading in from the west through Wednesday night and lasting into Thursday before a strong westerly flow brings showers or longer spells of rain across all areas through the period Thursday to Saturday with a ridge of High pressure moving quickly East over the UK later on Saturday with a drier interlude for all later in the day.
GFS then shows Sunday as another day when SW winds will be increasing with cloud and rain spreading across from the West through the day. Through the rest of the run the weather remains very mobile in a strong and gusty SW flow with rain or showers at times and strong winds too always between South and West.
UKMO shows a mild SW flow to close it's run next Monday with cloudy skies and rain or drizzle at times and with a cold front approaching from the West by Tuesday heavier rain will be on the horizon.
GEM has very unsettled weather continuing with the same SW flow as UKMO at 144hrs with Low pressure to the North maintaining spells of rain and showers at times for all in brisk Westerly winds.
NAVGEM has a mild SW flow too early next week with increasingly wet weather expected as pressure falls and troughs cross steadily NE over the UK with spells of rain and strong winds increasing with time.
ECM tonight also has the SW'ly to start next week but the operational has higher pressure over Europe with the worst of the rain affecting the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas while seeing some rain have longer dry spells in between.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts suggest a rather suspect operational tonight as the mean follows the pattern of the last week maintaining a preference to keep Low pressure close to the NW of the UK with SW winds carrying rain bearing fronts and showers overall areas at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of temperatures close to average with rain at times in mild SW winds. There remains little evidence of a major pattern shift anytime soon.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php
The Jet Stream continues to show a generally weaker feed across the Atlantic and the UK this week before it strengthens again next week in a sine wave pattern.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary tonight there remains little overall change tonight in what we have been seeing over recent days. There doesn't look like being a repeat of the recent powerful storms though windy weather will still be likely with rain at times for all in generally mild conditions considering the time of year.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset