HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY JULY 28TH 2014.
NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS THIS EVENING
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough of Low pressure will slowly relax away East from SE England through the day with a ridge moving SE over the UK behind it.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Somewhat more changeable than of late with some rain or showers from later this week. Becoming drier and warmer in the South and East again late in the period.
GFS The GFS operational this morning shows a trend towards cooler and more unsettled weather later this week though it takes until late in the week to reach the South. Shallow Low pressure areas next weekend will bring a mix of sunshine and heavy showers before through Week 2 a somewhat more mobile Atlantic setup develops with depressions running across close to the UK delivering showers or longer spells of rain in blustery West or SW winds. As always in these conditions the North and West will see the heaviest rain and it could still be quite dry and warm in SE England at times. Late in the run the first ex tropical Low pressure feature moves in close to the West of the UK maintaining the breezy and unsettled picture but still reasonably warm and at times humid conditions across the SE. The Ensembles differ slightly in respect to the extent of unsettled weather with SE Britain often very warm due to the close proximity of higher pressure and heat over Europe while Northern and Western Britain maintain a more unsettled flavour with rain or showers at times in blustery SW winds in association with Atlantic Low pressure close to the NW. The Ensembles also have removed the ex-tropical storm from it's output that the operational shows close to the end of it's run.
UKMO UKMO this morning shows complex Low pressure areas over the UK next weekend with showers or longer spells of rain in cyclonic and variable wind strengths. Temperatures under these conditions will be suppressed to average levels or just above in any sunny intervals between the showers.
THE FAX CHARTS TheFax Charts this morning though complex indicate no major rain bearing weather systems this side of the weekend. However, the weaker fronts shown will produce plenty of cloud at times and some light rainfall across the North and Central districts at times before more active fronts and Low pressure featured on last night's 96hr and 120hr charts will bring more coherent and widespread rainfall at the weekend in fresher temperatures and winds by then.
GEM The GEM operational this morning follows the trend of recent runs sliding lower pressure down across the UK at the end of the week and through the weekend with showers and outbreaks of rain becoming a much more widespread feature as a result. Through next week Low pressure drifts towards a point NW of the UK with a North and West/South and East split in the weather developing with the North and West seeing a breezy mix of sunshine and showers and longer outbreaks of rain while the South and East become rather warm at times with much more intermittent rainfall.
NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a shallow area of Low pressure over the North at the weekend with sunshine and showers the most likely weather across the UK, heaviest in the North. Through the start of next week a large depression is shown in the Atlantic with warm South to SW winds bringing rain at times to the North and West while the South and East see more in the way of dry and bright weather where in the extreme SE it could become very warm again with a few thundery showers at times as weak troughs cross through the warmth.
ECM The ECM operational too looks like a showery weekend is to be expected as shallow Low pressure develops across the UK. By early next week Low pressure transfers out to the Eastern Atlantic to the West of Scotland. This too would promote a NW/SE split with the weather in the NW staying unsettled and breezy with rain at times while the SE though not immune to rain would see a good deal of dry, bright and warm weather. The end of the run does show a more widepread period of showery weather as the Low to the West edges in closer to Scotland.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a shift in emphasis this morning that has cross model support for a push of Low pressure to move out into the Eastern Atlantic early next week away from the UK and setting up a more NW/SE split in the weather with South and East Britain benefitting from warmer and drier air wafting up from the South at times not shown as extensively on previous output.
MY THOUGHTS The main thrust of this morning's output shows the transition to somewhat less High pressure based weather with Low pressure more likely to be influential in a shallow form over the UK or in a deeper form moving in towards Western Britain next week. Having said that there seems unlikely to be any particularly nasty weather anywhere especially if you live in the SE where a lot of the time it will be dry and still reasonably warm or very warm. Elsewhere with Low pressure close by there is a greater risk that rain will feature more prominently and regularly day to day but there is still room for some more pleasant interludes of weather here too. Longer term the trend seems to have strengthened towards the drier and brighter conditions across the South and East to extend slowly towards other areas too as the weak Jet stream pulls depressions further towards more Northerly latitudes.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset