cant wait

GDACS...Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System...   Media Analysis ...Expect Bertha to weaken today .Present winds 75mph.   

xc

GFS 06z ramps up the Bertha threat again. Would be an unusual event for the time of year, if it comes off. A lot of rain whatever happens

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014080506/gfs-0-126.png?6

Interesting when other models have cooled the threat.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Indeed, 60mph gusts off the Welsh coast

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-rafales/126h.htm

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Torrential Rain, Atlantic Storms + Huug Van Den Dool

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

So much going on today it's hard to know what to look at first, LOL.

The likely tracks of Tropical Storm Bertha

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201403_ensmodel.gif

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201403_5day.gif

It is currently situated off the coast of North Carolina USA

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201403_sat.jpg

The above show Jet Stream as it is.

Somewhere may get some torrential rain from Bertha. 12z has it for the north

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080512/114-574UK.GIF?05-12

18Z says it will be a tad damp in the far NW over the next week

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080518/192-777UK.GIF?06-18

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough of low pressure will clear away steadily NE out of the UK through today. A light SW wflow will follow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming steadily more unsettled with rain at times and temperatures close to or above normal at times. Windy too at times especially in the West.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast taken from the GFS Ensemble data shows the flow close to the English Channel and Southern England strengthening early next week before maintaining a path close to Southern Britain through the remainder of the run rather stronger than of late.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows a very changeable run today with Low pressure the dominating feature of the weather over the UK. The ex-tropical storm feature is still shown to deliver some wet and windy conditions for a time on Sunday and the start of the week before it migrates and anchors itself close to Scotland with Westerly winds and further outbreaks of rain and showers from Atlantic troughs and ridges affecting all areas from then until the end of the run. Temperatures will never stray far from average on this run. The GFS Ensembles support it's operational run almost in full this morning keeping Low pressure in control over or just to the North of the UK and the Azores High held at it's home base throughout the extended period.

UKMO UKMO this morning does pull the storm system North out of Scotland at the start of next week taking the worst of the wind and rain away with it leaving behind lighter Westerly winds and a mix of sunshine and scattered showers for the first few days of the new week.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex synoptics around Atlantic based Low pressure systems for the rest of the week and the weekend although having said that the UK lies between many of the troughs for much of the time with a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers shown before a more coherent Low pressure and troughs approach from the SW late in the weekend.

GEM The GEM operational this morning shows the remains of the ex-tropical storm engaging with our own unstable atmosphere late in the weekend turning things wet and very windy to start next week before the Low is gradually shunted away NE but leaving a cooler and showery NW flow across the UK for the periods day 6-10. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows complex Low pressure including the tropical mix of air across the UK at the end of the weekend and showing a GEM type solution as we move into the week under an unstable and fresh NW flow with sunshine and showers a week or so from now. 

ECM The ECM operational this morning is much less dramatic with the storm system at the weekend and while Southern Britain will see some wind and heavy rain from it as a glancing blow the main focus is the Atlantic depression to the NW which ensures changeable conditions for all with outbreaks of rain and showers throughout much of next week in cooler West or NW winds.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models still don't have an agreement on the development of the storm if any over the weekend. Some output has moved more towards a deep Low centre development again while others have lessened the development. Until this is agreed upon subsequent synoptic conditions around the UK become harder than usual to interpret and are subject to marked changes run to run and model to model.

MY THOUGHTS As hinted above the output continues to struggle with how much if indeed any the remains of ex-tropical storm Bertha affects the UK over the start of next week. There is quite strong support for a period of wet and windy weather from it before the general drift seems to be that the parent Low pressure up to the NW encompassing it shows reluctance to move far from Northern Britain bottling the Azores High to it's namesake home territory and ensuring the UK lies under an unstable and showery West or NW airflow which could feel rather cooler to what we have become accustomed too. The Jet Stream Forecast taken from Ensemble data is shown to become stronger than of late from early next week and lie West to East close to Southern England through the latter period ensuring Low pressure in one form or another lies close to Northern Britain. It should be noted though that for much of the time the UK will lie under a sunshine and shower type of situation and as always there will be some areas that fair well and have few showers in which case it will still feel pleasantly warm but overall the high temperatures that the South and SE have enjoyed in particular this Summer could come down from recent values and lie closer to average as a reult and perhaps a bit on the cool side at times in the North and West.

As long as UKMO keeps coming up with these solutions where Bertha doesn't engage with the trough by the UK, resulting in that feature lifting out NW rather than intensifying near our shores, I'm keeping my expectations open.

That said, the fact that all other models show the engagement with rather unpleasant conseqeunces in some cases does make the UKMO solution seem rather out of whack.

Longer term, all that energy looks like moving right through Scandinavia. This really shakes up the broad scale pattern, pushing heat away from both Scandi and some western parts of Asia.

By then, the UK has been in a fresh Atlantic airflow for a number of days.

There are some hints that Typhoon Halong, in the western Pacific, could follow a track which in 7-9 days time causes amplification of the jet similar to what took place about a week into July.

The forcing from this looks like facing a lot more resistence this time though, except perhaps in the case of UKMO, where the Scandi trough doesn't set up.

Let's hope that UKMO is proved correct with this one James. It would still be unsettled for a number of days but not to the extent that the other models are indicating right now.

gfs starts in down grade

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=90&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

really  very unlikely to much sherry

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=126&mode=0&carte=1

The GFS 06z run has leapt into line with the UKMO 00z run - perhaps our model had it right all along regarding Bertha not engaging with the jet.

It certainly improves the longer term outlook, as the Atlantic trough lifts out NW the Azores High starts to ridge in our direction, eventually producing a run of very warm days 

Indeed Stormchaser..everything was set fair until the introduction of Bertha into the mix a week ago now (hence the reason for the high August CET predictions by most). It would appear for now that it will not engage with the jet stream as drastically as was being shown..end result is that we resort back to Plan A..eg, another warm and mainly settled month for most.

A good deal of rain between Friday and Sunday in response to the ex tropical storm before a slow but steady rise of pressure from the SW would be the best stab at the longer term outlook.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Good to see the 1020mb isobar over Cornwall as early as Tuesday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

Thats an upgrade from the Met for Sunday.

On a par with a forecast from Tommy Schldfa;ewacker

Good evening.

JMA showing Saturday as a wet day for most of us

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J66-594.GIF?06-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J72-594.GIF?06-12

JMA showing "Bertha" moving NE across the UK on Sunday

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J96-21.GIF?06-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J108-21.GIF?06-12

Again turning wet or very wet

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J96-594.GIF?06-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J108-594.GIF?06-12

And then it seems to grind to a halt off Eastern Scotland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J144-21.GIF?06-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080612/J156-594.GIF?06-12

Overall it is an unsettled outlook and this weekend looks a right off at the mo for a lot of us.

I've seen numerous revisions to the path of ex-Bertha, and until we get on the eve of her, or indeed past the event, I think it's futile to expect a consistent outcome on next weeks model outputs. It's all very much up in the air, and up for grabs! I remain hopeful of a slow but successful re-build of high pressure from the south, but who knows?

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Once the heavy rain cleared this morning by 10:30, it turned into a very warm day as Stone Cold has alluded to. Been a beautiful summer in this part of England. Tonight is so close and humid again. I don't think the cooler weather ever reaches this part of Kent