Further to my comments this morning, the models continue to suggest lowering pressure to the NW helping to shift us out of the pattern set up by the influence of ex-Bertha on the LP this weekend, most likely starting to shift things as we reach the end of the working week.

There are also signs that a low near the Azores will come into play as it slowly drifts NE late next week before being carried away by the jet stream.

GFS and GEM make enough of this feature to generate a ridge through the UK and bring some very warm air back to our shores.

ECM doesn't achieve this, which leaves us with a fairly flat pattern by day 10... but the main trough action is nicely to the NW of the UK, which is a good sign 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-25.52,45.62,1525

You can see here how Bertha's remains feature a rather lengthy convergence line - lots of upward motion going on there, generating deep convection.

It will be interesting to see how that interacts with the LP to the NE of the UK late on Saturday through to Sunday morning.

"Bertha" is ceratinly less intense on this evenings JMA compared with same time yesterday.

For most of England and Wales it's likely to be wet on Sunday but not terribly windy, a stiff breeze if nothing else but no damage from winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080812/J48-21.GIF?08-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080812/J54-21.GIF?08-12

The worst of the storm is likely to be further north into NE England and Scotland, where winds will be strongest.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080812/J60-21.GIF?08-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080812/J66-21.GIF?08-12

As above Sunday looks wet for a lot of us, the rain will be the more noteworthy feature for most of England Wales. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080812/J42-594.GIF?08-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080812/J48-594.GIF?08-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080812/J54-594.GIF?08-12

12z NMM model is still consistently forecasting a more intense storm for Sunday with a more westerly and northerly track than most other models. Similar to the 12z run yesterday. Central pressure gets down to 980mb

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmmuk-2-42-0.png?08-19

18z GFS broadly follows NMM also as per yesterday. Central pressure slightly higher than NMM

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080818/39-515UK.GIF?08-18

METO Fax chart looking quite different to yesterday. Now moving towards the solutions above. Shows 987mb for 12z Sunday and a much more northerly track than this time yesterday

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/bracknell+48.gif

Unsurprisingly the EURO4 model is broadly in line with what the Fax chart is showing but slightly deeper central pressure

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/08/08/basis12/ukuk/pslv/14081012_2_0812.gif

ECM also further north than this time yesterday but still showing a less intense storm with a more southerly track. Low centre over the Thames Valley at 12z Sunday so much further north than per the equivalent run yesterday

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014080812/ECU1-48.GIF?08-0

So in summary the models are starting to come together. Still some uncertainty about the exact positioning and intensity of the storm but it does now look like the low centre will cross the UK mainland somewhere. The chance of a miss to the south looking the least likely option now.

The most intense rainfall likely to the NW quadrant of the storm as per earlier METO advisories. The NMM model shows this nicely

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014080812/nmmuk-1-36-0.png?08-19

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014080812/nmmuk-1-40-0.png?08-19

Apologies for no report yesterday neither here or my website. I had a server crash yesterday which was not fixed until later. Normal service is resumed today.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8PM TODAY SATURDAY AUGUST 9TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A vigorous Atlantic depression (ex hurricane Bertha) will approach SW Britain tonight on a NNE course with troughs swinging NE over the South and West.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and sometimes windy and cool with showers and some longer outbreaks of rain at times. Perhaps drier across the South later.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to stay West to East over the or to the South of the UK for the majrity of the period with a shift of axis to NW to SE at times.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows the storm tomorrow crossing Wales and eventually forming a Low complex close to Northern Scotland with gales and heavy rain giving way to a stiff westerly wind and showers through the coming working week. Pressure rises gently and conditions mprove especially towards the South later in the week before Week 2 continues to feed Westerly winds and changeable conditions with rain at times in average temperatures and the worst of the weather likely to be over Northern Britain. The GFS Ensembles support the operational in full through Week 1 before Week 2 shows less support for any differential in emphasis with regard to the changeable theme between North and South in temperatures under average temperatures overall.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows steadily improving conditions following the stormy next 48 hours as the Low pressure complex close to Northern Britain early in the week gradually recedes away over Scandinavia taking it's showery trough slowly away with it with a ridge of high pressure moving across by next weekend. it will feel cool in ablustery WNW wind for much of the week though.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the small but vigorous Low cross Southern England later on Sunday with a cool, strong and showery West or NW flow developing behind lasting for much of next week.

GEM The GEM operational tday looks like the storm will track NE over Southern England tomorrow, deepening further as it moves out into the North Sea with the very wet conditions across the South giving way to strong WNW winds and blustery showers through much of the week. Pressure is shown to rise steadily with High pressure to the SW gradually becoming the dominant feature by next weekend with fine and warmer conditions gradually extending across all areas by the end of the run. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM has tomorrows storm crossing SW Britain and on to join the complex and deep Low over the far North by Monday. As this then slowly fills and drifts away towards Scandinavia it will leave behind a persistent and showery WNW flow with some heavy and prolonged showers at times with some decent drier and somewhat drier conditions likely in the West by the end of the run. 

ECM The ECM operational has complex Low pressure developing towards the North of the UK following tomorrows ex-tropical storm feature moves through the South to join it. After heavy rain tomorrow a lot of bright, cool and showery WNW winds are shown through the week with the South becoming drier and brighter by next weekend when it will feel warmer too. Towards the final frames of the run a North/South split looks likely with changeable breezy conditions in the North while the South stays drier and brighter with temperatures somewhat warmer again.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The changeable pattern remains a constant through most of the models with no real change in trend from previous runs.

MY THOUGHTS  We are now just 24 hours from what has been firmed up on as a wet and windy spell of weather to come tomorrow. Had it been Winter there would be no real issues but with trees in full leaf strong to gale winds can have major implications and some damage to these could occur as the storm tracks NE somewhere over Southern Britain tomorrow. After the storm passes conditions will only improve slowly as a strong WNW and showery wind blows for much of this working week in cool air but with time things look like improving towards next weekend as High pressure builds in closer to SW Britain. Through the second half of the output it appears that the most likely scenario is for something of a North/South split in the weather to occur with changeable and sometimes windy conditions across the North while the South sees longer dry spells of weather with just shortlived risks of rainfall intervening at times. It should become less cool in the South too through Week 2. So all in all not high Summer weather likely for a week or two and it will no doubt give rise to the feel of an early taste of Autumn at times this week especially by night when things could feel very cool.

GFS has the ex-Bertha LP just hanging around to the north of the UK all next week, spinning front after front into the UK.

A truly depressing spell of weather. Certainly very little 'useable' weather for most of the country.

August is turning into that sort of terrible autumnal weather that characterised 2007-2012  

GEM not too bad at 210 hours:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0&carte=0

Trend this Summer has been for unsettled weather to be shown, but often as the timeframe approaches it is often moderated by the models and ends up as showers at worst. To be honest down here I'm enjoying the freshest day at the moment for many weeks as it's been so humid and stuffy it's a welcome break from the heat - suspect as per Gavin's video yesterday heat may be back for end of the month / start of September so only a couple of weeks to go if that's what you are after.  

GFS 06z and Euro4 look similar with late development as she heads north.

Big Bertha then hangs around for a few days like an unwanted house guest

(EDIT - sorry, didnt see the separate Bertha thread!)

Looking very wet for quite a few of us with the accumulated rainfall up to 72 hrs.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014080906/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?09-13

Breakfast tomorrow and the deep pressure system is centred across SW England.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080912/18-515UK.GIF?09-12

By Afternoon it is located across the Midlands.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080912/24-515UK.GIF?09-12

It moves out into the North Sea by the evening.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080912/30-515UK.GIF?09-12

The deep pressure system deepens further and it looks potentially very windy for Northern and Eastern Scotland on Monday.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080912/45-515UK.GIF?09-12

Before then it looks like a soggy old day tomorrow for England and Wales thanks to the ex-tropical system.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080912/21-779UK.GIF?09-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014080912/24-779UK.GIF?09-12

My online time is being limited by connection issues again, but a glance at the models suggests not a lot has changed since this morning to my eyes, except for ECM and GEM inflating HP very dramatically to the NW, which I hope is another case of them getting carried away with amplifying the pattern.

Right, after close to 12 hours working on my dissertation today, I feel it really is time to shut down for the night! 

After this weekend and up to mid next week the models had been showing HP moving in to give a settled weekend here and now BH weekend appeared on the charts with huge HP over us so it would be very good for the Mega car boot sales and next week normal one would not be cancelled as they did today despite the rain was little so far.  It been good few days now that the models show summer will return later next week.  If wasn't for the so-called bertha I am sure summer like weather would continue which had been running since June.  Drier trend and warmer on the London ensembles from next week and rise of temps toward BH weekend.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY AUGUST 10TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low will cross NNE across England today to join a deep Low complex near Northern Scotland by tomorrow with an unusually strong Westerly flow for August affecting all areas by the same time.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy at first with rain at times. Trending drier, brighter and warmer through Week 2.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to blow West to East across Northern France before ridging North through the Atlantic through next week, tilting the flow NW to SE across the UK before it weakens and becomes disorganized late in the run.

GFS The GFS operational today shows Low pressure staying close to Northern Britain for a large part of this week before pressure gently rises from the SW with a spell of quieter weather with warm sunshine across the South next weekend. Through week 2 the risge gives way temporarily as Low pressure returns from the NW with some rain and Atlantic breezes for all before the Azores ridge pushes back North bringing warm and sunny weather back across the South at least to end the run. The GFS Ensembles show good support through Week 1 but by Week 2 things become much more complex than the operational with various cut off Low pressure in the Atlantic just one factor which prevents a marked long lasting improvement before Atlantic Low pressure returns across the UK to end the run.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows bright and dry weather gradually extending across the UK from the SW next weekend after a cool and showery week as pressure builds from the South.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the small but vigorous Low crossing Southern England moving North deepening further to give an unsettled and windy spell with showers or longer spells of rain through this week as it only slowly fills and moves away later in the week.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the same showery and strong WNW flow through the week weakening slowly later but it tends to hold Low pressure over Scandinavia with a maintained weaker showery NW flow over the UK right out to Day 10. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds pressure Low over Scandinavia with the risk of showers across the UK continuing well into next weekend though High pressure is permitted to rise enough across Southern Britain to dampen down many of the showers towards dry and brighter and less cool conditions. 

ECM The ECM operational has pressure rising later in the week with rain and showers continuing across the UK especially the North. With pressure becoming reasonably high across Southern Britain next weekend the weather across these parts will become drier and warmer briefly before slacker Low pressure brings light winds but the return of showers later as High pressure builds across the Atlantic and brings the majority of showers towards Southern and Eastern Britain.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are no real differences in trends this morning that were not illustrated in some form or another in last nights run.

MY THOUGHTS  This mornings output continues to interpret a very showery week to come with some heavy and prolonged showers almost anywhere with a cool and blustery West or NW wind. There is good support for pressure to build across the South next weekend with a drier and warmer phase likely. How long this lasts is open to debate as some output indicates the steady return of more Low pressure either from the NW or from lower pressure over Europe ala ECM. Whichever way the dice falls there seems reasonable enough evidence that temperatures will recover next weekend and through Week 2 with rain or showers becoming more sporadic in nature with the chance of some dry, fine and warm sunny spells in between with no return of the current unusually wet and windy weather that is currently occurring.

Anbody else the potential for torrential rain from this?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1923.gif

Looks like a pretty intense temp gradiant battling? 

Single figure max temps for parts of Scotland tomorrow - add on the wind it will feel like Autumn has arrived!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014081012/nmmuk-0-25-0.png?10-19

BRRRRRR...

Not going to be the hottest August on record on those sort of numbers is it?

Never looked likely really - August can often show characteristics of autumn 

Not so sure about "often" more like rarely in a mostly unpredictable maritime climate like ours.... never mind August I've known many warm Septembers, it may be an autumn month metetorologically but September can sometimes feel warmish and not really autumnal apart from a bit of fog and cooler mornings but it soon warms up, certainly by October things turn a bit colder nationwide and the Atlantic usually cranks up a gear by then giving us the traditional UK "Autumnal feel"

It was 14 degrees this afternoon and still felt warm due to the high humidity 

Tomorrow looks bleak for all the rubber bumpers up Inversnecky way. 

 Amber warning for up to 100mm  

 LLTNP 105m asl 

August as it progresses can become far more of a prelude to autumn in my experience. For one thing the lengthening nights already make it feel that way as the wife was commenting last night. Despite the heat lag effect, the Atlantic does have a tendancy to ramp up for a time and not always as a result of tropical activity! I agree about September though as there have been many occasions where we get a settled warm spell that is at least reminiscent of summer. Although there have been some notable exceptions, in general, August is not a month for heatwaves despite it having the highest recorded temperatures in the UK 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY AUGUST 11TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE 'MY THOUGHTS' UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low will become slow moving near NE Scotland with a strong and cool showery Westerly flow across all areas.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and sometimes cool with showers and some longer outbreaks of rain at times. Perhaps drier across the South for a time mid period.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to blow strongly across Northern france before ridging North over the Atlantic tilting the flow more NW to SE across the UK by next weekend. The flow then remains close to or over the UK throughout the remainder of the run.

GFS The GFS operational today keeps Low pressure close to Northern scotland and Scandinavia for much of the run this morning. This maintains a lot of cool west or NW winds with sunshine and showers mixed with a few longer spells of rain as well as some short drier and brighter intervals. It's not until very late in the run that High pressure ridges in more strongly towards the South drying things up and turning things a little warmer. The GFS Ensembles do show High pressure agonisingly close to the west of the UK for a time in a week or so restricting and damping down the cool NW flow before it gets squeezed away South at the expense of deep Autumnal Low pressure slipping down over the UK towards the end of the run.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows bright and drier weather with fewer showers at the weekend but ends it's run with Low pressure approaching NW Britain carrying a trough steadily East over the UK next Sunday.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a showery WNW flow through this week with col conditions overall as a result. Pressure rises somewhat by the weekend damping down the showers over the South and SW with some longer drier spells.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a more widespread improvement at the weekend as High pressure just to the South of the UK delivers warmer uppers and surface temperatures in a light Wind. However, it moves on to show that Week 2 becomes unsettled again as a cut-off Low from the SW drifts across the UK at the end of the run with cloud and rain at times and cooler conditions again. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM brings higher pressure towards Southern England next weekend with drier and brighter conditions as a result while some Northern parts under a Westerly breeze stay rather more changeable with some rain at times. 

ECM The ECM operational this morning shows cool and showery weather likely to remain in situ over the UK in some shape or form right through to Day 10 as Low pressure remains close to the North and later from the SW. Winds look like staying from between west and North with relatively cool conditions but with some pleasant sunny spells in between.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS To me there seems to be slightly less evidence of the anticipated rise of pressure and better weather next weekend and beyond being as well defined between the output this morning.

MY THOUGHTS  Overall the weather seems to have become somewhat more changeable and cooler of late and this remains evident in this morning's output too with all areas at risk of some rain or showers at anytime over the next few weeks. Winds look like blowing from a predominently West or NW direction which is not the warmest direction for winds to blow from in August so as a result average temperatures at best look the most likely outcome while in any rainfall it will feel somewhat chilly. Pressure does show as being higher at least for a time next weekend across the South so next weekend could be rather better for a while before more changeable weather returns here too thereafter. Unfortunately if this morning's charts verify and with the Jet flow location and synoptic setup as shown this morning it looks unlikely that August will live up to the dizzy heights that June and July have in completing Summer 2014.