They're all here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

 May have to train myself to use those on a daily basis for my own forecasting needs (it's all in the familiarity, a bit like reluctantly giving up a favourite sofa, one that is well worn with springs sticking out, for a brand new one that may take some time to settle in).

FYI the new GFS is scheduled for Dec 17th but this is subject to change. The upper limit of the 3 hour step interval is increased from 180 to 240 hours and an additional parameter for dewpoint is provided. Previously dewpoint had to be derived.

Yesterday, GFS modeled precipitation along the south coast, like we can see in the above chart, for the whole of the daylight hours today, but the real situation has been organised convection travelling way, way inland.

The above chart is for 3-6 pm today, yet on the radar there is a line of organised convection, preceded by sporadic convection, already about twice as far inland as modeled, and showing no real sign of dissipating.

I'm pointing this out because GFS shows the same sort of thing for Friday night, so we can probably expect a lot more rain around than is being shown:

Though to be fair, the showers are shown to get inland as the day progresses, so at least it's seeing the potential on that occasion.

The winds will be lighter than today, with the showers slow moving, so they could make a big difference if they really get going in the way that they did today. It shouldn't be as extreme as we would face in summer for example, thanks to much lower solar input, but it won't help matters after what looks like a fair bit more rain Thursday-Friday:

Yet again we see a focus of the rainfall across coastal counties, with 20-30 mm widely, and high ground, with 40-50 mm shown in England and Wales and as much as 200 mm across the highest terrain in Scotland.

By comparison, the GFS 12z op has 20-30 mm for the above areas, but follows the same sort of distribution.

Both models then show much of the rest of the UK receiving somewhere between 5 and 15 mm.

The key exception, both in the above and the GFS projection, extends from the western reaches of East Anglia down to a line extending from the London area almost as far as Reading. Here, totals are mostly in the 0-10 mm range, a little above in a few areas. This particular WRF-NMM run produces next to nothing in parts of the Capital.

It's just hammered it down with rotund raindrops again here - it really is like April showers but without the warm sunshine!

YELLOW WARNINGS OUT for a few days. For South and West...

Oh no way

It is very amusing , as I pointed out the other day

Looks like all my werreting was justified in the end :S, on the plus side, I hope people will remember that I don't always cold ramp! Anyway, there is nothing much of interest in the models, the downgrades have gradually killed our greenland high and slicer low, a scandi high on the southern side of the jet is useless (unless you like barely subzero nights, fog, drizzle and general dankness). Will continue to watch the models with less enthusiasm. Let's see what the ECM does with that 552 isopleth.

Which parameters are derived? 

Currently? Dewpoint and wbt are 2 common ones.

You know things are getting dire when the -5 line comes from the west.

9 times out of 10, anything coming from the east in November isn't going to be especially cold.

And, being pedantic, isn't that cold strictly coming from the north, but on a bit of an arcing trajectory?

That was kinda the point, its textbook returning polar. I was implying that last year was basically non stop returning polar airmasses and we know what happened then. 

It was the RPM airstreams that caused so much convective rainfall in prone areas last winter, thereby exacerbating the copious frontal rain

Does look as though the Atlantic is cranking up for late November... Looks like it could be another November without a widespread UK snowfall.

I think on average you normally get a significant November snowfall one in three and we've not had one since 2010 so we're over-due...

Yeh but 2010 probably counts as 2 decades worth!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Unusually tight grouping into FI.
Closer agreement now that to month's end the Atlantic rules.

Same story as last year - I am afraid we are in for a repeat performance. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A large depression covers the Atlantic ocean with a series of fronts crossing North and slowly East across the UK both today and tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Remaining largely unsettled with rain at times, heavy in places and coupled with spells of strong winds in near to average temperatures for all..

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows little sign of any significant shift in the flow from it's 50-55 deg North location with a particularly strong phase of the flow crossing the Atlantic to a position close to Southern Britain through Week 2.

GFS OPERATIONAL The general message from the GFS operational this morning is for a sustained period of unsettled and Low pressure driven weather with rain or showers at times for all. A short quieter phase is shown briefly at the start of next week as the current Low pressure fills up near to Southern England before a renewed Atlantic drive from intense depressions to the NW delivers severe gales and very heavy rain and squally showers in temperatures gradually falling closer towards the seasonal average after the weekend.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is very similar to the operational with the only slight difference being the emhasis towards the heaviest rains and the strongest winds focused more towards the North and West though all areas are shown to come under repeated attacks of wind and rain in a very volatile and mobile Atlantic.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES.  The GFS Ensembles are likewise similar to what I have already printed in the above text with strong winds and heavy rain being the driving force in a more mobile pattern following the current unsettled and more locked pattern with temperatures close to average.

UKMO UKMO today illustrates the quieter phase in the weather shown by most models early next week as our current deep Low has drifted down towards Southern England while filling bringing lighter winds but still some rain early next week at the top and tail of the UK. The Day 6 chart shows a deep Atlantic Low approaching Western Britain later to renew the drive of Low pressure based weather later in the week.

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts maintain that the UK skies will be governed by Low pressure with concoction of troughs moving gently North and NE across the UK. Innitially there will be strong winds and heavy rain in places but later pressure becomes slacker as Low pressure is shown to fill near Southern England with rain at times still for the South and far North well into next week but with quieter weather in Central areas permitting frost and fog possibilities night and morning for a time.

GEM  GEM shows Low pressure governing the UK weather over the period but does differ in as much as the Low pressure areas come in on more Southerly latitudes and slower in movement maintaining rain and showers for all areas at times in a cyclonic airflow and temperatures close to average.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is very different than the above models this morning in that once the current Low pressure complex fills near Southern Britain early next week pressure rises further with slack High pressure covering many parts a week from now with dry and benign weather with mist, fog and frost patches much more likely than rain a week from now away from the far SW.

ECM  ECM this morning has finally shown closer resemblance to the majority of output this morning in ratcheting up a more powerful series of Atlantic storms later next week crossing quickly East between Scotland and Iceland and delivering Westerly gales and heavy rain and showers in temperatures falling back from the somewhat mild conditions currently to values much closer to what we expect at this time of year. All this follows the current more locked pressure pattern which in itself continues to give heavy rain and wind at times between now and then especially over the South.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES  The Ensembles point to a SW flow across the UK in 10 days time in association with Low pressure most likely to lie to the NW of the UK. In this pattern one can only expect unsettled and relatively mild weather to persist in spells of rain and strong winds for all.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today generally focuses on maintained unsettled weather but with a change of emphasis of rain shifting from the West and South to all areas as gales develop widely later.

MY THOUGHTS  I suppose the main focus for people who read my reports daily is when will the weather turn more wintry and cold but more concerning than any of that is the concerning charts this morning that show the UK is likely to experience a lot more rain and wind with likely flooding issues likely to develop in areas that least need it as the current locked pattern of Low just to the West and SW is replaced by a much more mobile Atlantic and powerful Jet Stream still quite well South. This pattern in some ways mirrors what we were under repeatedly last Winter. This will encourage some powerful storm systems to develop to the NW of the UK as the High pressure block to the NE collapses next week. All areas will then see further spells of heavy rain and squally winds with brighter and more showery weather in between. There is little sign of any dry weather over the UK over the next few weeks with the exception of early next week when a Central swathe of the UK sees a drier and calmer phase before the aforementioned pattern develops. Temperatures will fall back somewhat from this weekend towards a point close to the seasonal average and in the strength of the winds likely later next week I'm sure it will feel chilly with the chance of mountain snow at times across the North. NAVGEM is the only model that does suggest higher pressure from the block to the NE developing later next week but does look very isolated in it's evolution and is best disregarded this morning. So going back to my early point about when the UK can expect to see cold weather arriving my answer would be as far away as ever this morning as all the building blocks shown late last week and to some degree early this week are largely removed and in their place we have a powerful Jet flow next week winding up powerful storm systems which look like battering Britain from the West in the second half of the period shown by the models this morning.

It's all uncannily similar to the winter 2013/14 pattern.

I note that New York at latitude 40N (same as Rome) are already in the firing line for two brief albeit major arctic plunges within a few days of eachother.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC

Looks like the mighty Atlantic is about to fire up big time with potential storm and heavy rain events.

Off-topic, but I for one will be very, very surprised if this winter turns out to be anything like a carbon copy of 2013-14. As much as severe cold spells such as December 2010 were exceptional, last winter in my book was just as much so for totally different reasons and will be very surprised if the get the same pattern week after week without interruption for two months solid. Only my view of course, but as Ian said above we don't often if ever get two winters exactly the same back-to-back.

Way too early to be writing off the next three months IMO. I could have written off this year's summer during the first two weeks of June when the weather wasn't exactly very summery here; had I done so I'd have made a big mistake as the rest of the summer generally was pretty decent, albeit with a much cooler August.

The models seem to have renaged on the colder, HP dominated outlook they were going for a few days ago and now have the atlantic in control for a while. However this may change if a stratospheric warming event does occur as SC mentioned above. No need to be pressing the panic button yet.

That 552 isopleth is slightly closer to greenland today, but until it touches it there is no point in having any hope. The angular pattern is exactly like 2013/2014, winter is over e.c.t. e.c.t. On the plus side there is some strat warming so perhaps we could see some blocking in the first half of December; maybe even in the right place this time!