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Brian Gaze
12 November 2014 16:08:42




There's a thought, though. Will the various parameters associated with the current GFS be carried over to the new look GFS when the time comes? At the moment I'm only seeing a limited set on the new GFS (pressure, precipitation, etc but no 850's, Jet Stream, Dewpoint, etc). Or am I looking at the wrong place? (I use WeatherOnline).


Originally Posted by: idj20 


They're all here:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
12 November 2014 16:27:34


 


They're all here:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 May have to train myself to use those on a daily basis for my own forecasting needs (it's all in the familiarity, a bit like reluctantly giving up a favourite sofa, one that is well worn with springs sticking out, for a brand new one that may take some time to settle in).


Folkestone Harbour. 
Brian Gaze
12 November 2014 16:30:57


 


 May have to train myself to use those on a daily basis for my own forecasting needs (it's all in the familiarity, a bit like reluctantly giving up a favourite sofa, one that is well worn with springs sticking out, for a brand new one that may take some time to settle in).


Originally Posted by: idj20 


FYI the new GFS is scheduled for Dec 17th but this is subject to change. The upper limit of the 3 hour step interval is increased from 180 to 240 hours and an additional parameter for dewpoint is provided. Previously dewpoint had to be derived.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Stormchaser
12 November 2014 16:42:53

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Yesterday, GFS modeled precipitation along the south coast, like we can see in the above chart, for the whole of the daylight hours today, but the real situation has been organised convection travelling way, way inland.


The above chart is for 3-6 pm today, yet on the radar there is a line of organised convection, preceded by sporadic convection, already about twice as far inland as modeled, and showing no real sign of dissipating.


I'm pointing this out because GFS shows the same sort of thing for Friday night, so we can probably expect a lot more rain around than is being shown:


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Though to be fair, the showers are shown to get inland as the day progresses, so at least it's seeing the potential on that occasion.


The winds will be lighter than today, with the showers slow moving, so they could make a big difference if they really get going in the way that they did today. It shouldn't be as extreme as we would face in summer for example, thanks to much lower solar input, but it won't help matters after what looks like a fair bit more rain Thursday-Friday:



Yet again we see a focus of the rainfall across coastal counties, with 20-30 mm widely, and high ground, with 40-50 mm shown in England and Wales and as much as 200 mm across the highest terrain in Scotland.


By comparison, the GFS 12z op has 20-30 mm for the above areas, but follows the same sort of distribution.


Both models then show much of the rest of the UK receiving somewhere between 5 and 15 mm.


The key exception, both in the above and the GFS projection, extends from the western reaches of East Anglia down to a line extending from the London area almost as far as Reading. Here, totals are mostly in the 0-10 mm range, a little above in a few areas. This particular WRF-NMM run produces next to nothing in parts of the Capital.


 


It's just hammered it down with rotund raindrops again here - it really is like April showers but without the warm sunshine!


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
12 November 2014 16:55:51

YELLOW WARNINGS OUT for a few days. For South and West...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gooner
12 November 2014 17:56:09


 


 


You've been spending too much time on NW! Definitely more chilled out here. 


 


Back to the models GFS and GFSP have been coming up with different solutions from the start. Has anyone worked out yet when the differences start is there a particular situation that they come apart (e.g in leymans terms is one more in tune with ramping up the atlantic than say the other one is more keen on blocking) or is it too early to be looking at this.


I guess come December its by the by as we'll lose the GFS anyway.


Originally Posted by: festivalking 


Oh no way


It is very amusing , as I pointed out the other day


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
12 November 2014 18:00:52


I've ordered the egg for the faces of Cooling Climate and Solar Cycles 


 


I jest, of course, still too early to call what will happen in a couple of weeks, that's unless you subscribe to the LRF myth. 


 


Edit: MO threads, and any other consumable threads will run to 50 pages now. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Err why, as I never said cold was coming in the short term and always said to look at the bigger picture of the NH for the building blocks being laid.

Quantum
12 November 2014 18:12:47

Looks like all my werreting was justified in the end :S, on the plus side, I hope people will remember that I don't always cold ramp! Anyway, there is nothing much of interest in the models, the downgrades have gradually killed our greenland high and slicer low, a scandi high on the southern side of the jet is useless (unless you like barely subzero nights, fog, drizzle and general dankness). Will continue to watch the models with less enthusiasm. Let's see what the ECM does with that 552 isopleth.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
12 November 2014 18:14:17


 


FYI the new GFS is scheduled for Dec 17th but this is subject to change. The upper limit of the 3 hour step interval is increased from 180 to 240 hours and an additional parameter for dewpoint is provided. Previously dewpoint had to be derived.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Which parameters are derived? 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
12 November 2014 18:19:59


 


Which parameters are derived? 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Currently? Dewpoint and wbt are 2 common ones.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
12 November 2014 21:17:44


You know things are getting dire when the -5 line comes from the west.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
12 November 2014 21:37:49


You know things are getting dire when the -5 line comes from the west.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


9 times out of 10, anything coming from the east in November isn't going to be especially cold.


And, being pedantic, isn't that cold strictly coming from the north, but on a bit of an arcing trajectory?



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
12 November 2014 21:43:26


 


 


9 times out of 10, anything coming from the east in November isn't going to be especially cold.


And, being pedantic, isn't that cold strictly coming from the north, but on a bit of an arcing trajectory?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


That was kinda the point, its textbook returning polar. I was implying that last year was basically non stop returning polar airmasses and we know what happened then. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
12 November 2014 22:18:45


 


That was kinda the point, its textbook returning polar. I was implying that last year was basically non stop returning polar airmasses and we know what happened then. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It was the RPM airstreams that caused so much convective rainfall in prone areas last winter, thereby exacerbating the copious frontal rain

Gavin P
12 November 2014 23:59:48

Does look as though the Atlantic is cranking up for late November... Looks like it could be another November without a widespread UK snowfall.


I think on average you normally get a significant November snowfall one in three and we've not had one since 2010 so we're over-due...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Quantum
13 November 2014 00:56:13


Does look as though the Atlantic is cranking up for late November... Looks like it could be another November without a widespread UK snowfall.


I think on average you normally get a significant November snowfall one in three and we've not had one since 2010 so we're over-due...


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Yeh but 2010 probably counts as 2 decades worth!


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
nsrobins
13 November 2014 07:12:32

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


Unusually tight grouping into FI.
Closer agreement now that to month's end the Atlantic rules.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
jondg14
13 November 2014 07:41:04
All hail the mighty Atlantic. The Snow Advance Index was impressive during October but a snow retreat index might be needed for Europe this month.

It's looking like us coldies will need to bide our time and see what the start of December brings. In the meantime let's hope we don't see too much flooding which is clearly the concern at the moment.
Maunder Minimum
13 November 2014 08:06:57

All hail the mighty Atlantic. The Snow Advance Index was impressive during October but a snow retreat index might be needed for Europe this month.

It's looking like us coldies will need to bide our time and see what the start of December brings. In the meantime let's hope we don't see too much flooding which is clearly the concern at the moment.

Originally Posted by: jondg14 


Same story as last year - I am afraid we are in for a repeat performance. 


New world order coming.
GIBBY
13 November 2014 08:41:12

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13TH 2014.


NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14TH 08:00


THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A large depression covers the Atlantic ocean with a series of fronts crossing North and slowly East across the UK both today and tomorrow.


MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Remaining largely unsettled with rain at times, heavy in places and coupled with spells of strong winds in near to average temperatures for all..


THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows little sign of any significant shift in the flow from it's 50-55 deg North location with a particularly strong phase of the flow crossing the Atlantic to a position close to Southern Britain through Week 2.


GFS OPERATIONAL The general message from the GFS operational this morning is for a sustained period of unsettled and Low pressure driven weather with rain or showers at times for all. A short quieter phase is shown briefly at the start of next week as the current Low pressure fills up near to Southern England before a renewed Atlantic drive from intense depressions to the NW delivers severe gales and very heavy rain and squally showers in temperatures gradually falling closer towards the seasonal average after the weekend.


THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is very similar to the operational with the only slight difference being the emhasis towards the heaviest rains and the strongest winds focused more towards the North and West though all areas are shown to come under repeated attacks of wind and rain in a very volatile and mobile Atlantic.


THE GFS ENSEMBLES.  The GFS Ensembles are likewise similar to what I have already printed in the above text with strong winds and heavy rain being the driving force in a more mobile pattern following the current unsettled and more locked pattern with temperatures close to average.


UKMO UKMO today illustrates the quieter phase in the weather shown by most models early next week as our current deep Low has drifted down towards Southern England while filling bringing lighter winds but still some rain early next week at the top and tail of the UK. The Day 6 chart shows a deep Atlantic Low approaching Western Britain later to renew the drive of Low pressure based weather later in the week.


THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts maintain that the UK skies will be governed by Low pressure with concoction of troughs moving gently North and NE across the UK. Innitially there will be strong winds and heavy rain in places but later pressure becomes slacker as Low pressure is shown to fill near Southern England with rain at times still for the South and far North well into next week but with quieter weather in Central areas permitting frost and fog possibilities night and morning for a time.


GEM  GEM shows Low pressure governing the UK weather over the period but does differ in as much as the Low pressure areas come in on more Southerly latitudes and slower in movement maintaining rain and showers for all areas at times in a cyclonic airflow and temperatures close to average.


NAVGEM NAVGEM is very different than the above models this morning in that once the current Low pressure complex fills near Southern Britain early next week pressure rises further with slack High pressure covering many parts a week from now with dry and benign weather with mist, fog and frost patches much more likely than rain a week from now away from the far SW.


ECM  ECM this morning has finally shown closer resemblance to the majority of output this morning in ratcheting up a more powerful series of Atlantic storms later next week crossing quickly East between Scotland and Iceland and delivering Westerly gales and heavy rain and showers in temperatures falling back from the somewhat mild conditions currently to values much closer to what we expect at this time of year. All this follows the current more locked pressure pattern which in itself continues to give heavy rain and wind at times between now and then especially over the South.


THE ECM ENSEMBLES  The Ensembles point to a SW flow across the UK in 10 days time in association with Low pressure most likely to lie to the NW of the UK. In this pattern one can only expect unsettled and relatively mild weather to persist in spells of rain and strong winds for all.


NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today generally focuses on maintained unsettled weather but with a change of emphasis of rain shifting from the West and South to all areas as gales develop widely later.


MY THOUGHTS  I suppose the main focus for people who read my reports daily is when will the weather turn more wintry and cold but more concerning than any of that is the concerning charts this morning that show the UK is likely to experience a lot more rain and wind with likely flooding issues likely to develop in areas that least need it as the current locked pattern of Low just to the West and SW is replaced by a much more mobile Atlantic and powerful Jet Stream still quite well South. This pattern in some ways mirrors what we were under repeatedly last Winter. This will encourage some powerful storm systems to develop to the NW of the UK as the High pressure block to the NE collapses next week. All areas will then see further spells of heavy rain and squally winds with brighter and more showery weather in between. There is little sign of any dry weather over the UK over the next few weeks with the exception of early next week when a Central swathe of the UK sees a drier and calmer phase before the aforementioned pattern develops. Temperatures will fall back somewhat from this weekend towards a point close to the seasonal average and in the strength of the winds likely later next week I'm sure it will feel chilly with the chance of mountain snow at times across the North. NAVGEM is the only model that does suggest higher pressure from the block to the NE developing later next week but does look very isolated in it's evolution and is best disregarded this morning. So going back to my early point about when the UK can expect to see cold weather arriving my answer would be as far away as ever this morning as all the building blocks shown late last week and to some degree early this week are largely removed and in their place we have a powerful Jet flow next week winding up powerful storm systems which look like battering Britain from the West in the second half of the period shown by the models this morning.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



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Gusty
13 November 2014 08:49:52

It's all uncannily similar to the winter 2013/14 pattern.


I note that New York at latitude 40N (same as Rome) are already in the firing line for two brief albeit major arctic plunges within a few days of eachother.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC


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idj20
13 November 2014 09:02:00


It's all uncannily similar to the winter 2013/14 pattern.


I note that New York at latitude 40N (same as Rome) are already in the firing line for two brief albeit major arctic plunges within a few days of eachother.


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Yep. And so it begins.

I just knew from the start that as soon as North America get to have prolonged and widespread cold, then we here in the UK can kiss goodbye any prospects of cold settled weather - at least for a good while as once the Atlantic regime is set in, it is difficult to shift.

Mind you, last November, we did have an extended quiet spell where high pressure settled over the UK in the second half of the month before the Atlantic got to work on us in December. This November it looks like being changeable and wet from one end to the other end of the month. Not that it has any bearing in terms of how the rest of the winter season is going to turn out as I've always said that no two years are exactly alike when it comes to our climate.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Charmhills
13 November 2014 09:29:03

Looks like the mighty Atlantic is about to fire up big time with potential storm and heavy rain events.



Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
David M Porter
13 November 2014 09:54:32


 


Same story as last year - I am afraid we are in for a repeat performance. 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Off-topic, but I for one will be very, very surprised if this winter turns out to be anything like a carbon copy of 2013-14. As much as severe cold spells such as December 2010 were exceptional, last winter in my book was just as much so for totally different reasons and will be very surprised if the get the same pattern week after week without interruption for two months solid. Only my view of course, but as Ian said above we don't often if ever get two winters exactly the same back-to-back.


Way too early to be writing off the next three months IMO. I could have written off this year's summer during the first two weeks of June when the weather wasn't exactly very summery here; had I done so I'd have made a big mistake as the rest of the summer generally was pretty decent, albeit with a much cooler August.


The models seem to have renaged on the colder, HP dominated outlook they were going for a few days ago and now have the atlantic in control for a while. However this may change if a stratospheric warming event does occur as SC mentioned above. No need to be pressing the panic button yet.


 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
13 November 2014 10:36:04

That 552 isopleth is slightly closer to greenland today, but until it touches it there is no point in having any hope. The angular pattern is exactly like 2013/2014, winter is over e.c.t. e.c.t. On the plus side there is some strat warming so perhaps we could see some blocking in the first half of December; maybe even in the right place this time!


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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