This is basically the heathen of all possible synoptic situs.

Large height gradient, Lowest heights concentrated just south of iceland, highest heights concentrated in the azors and threatening to move to Europe, 552 isopleth right over the UK. I suspect there have been worse outlooks, but this is a textbook example of what we don't want. 

Yep they don't call it the silly season for nothing.

Cmon SC you know the AO is just a single number, you would be far better off looking at the charts in their entirety. It doesn't matter if the radial pattern is good (and it isn't that good) if the angular pattern is terrible. Some of my remarks were tounge in cheek though, and that was obvious from the context, I'm not actually ruling out the whole winter but I am pretty much ruling out this month. 

Call me when that 552 isopleth reaches greenland. Until then I'm not interested. 

well ive just been out to buy my water proof t-shirt for this winter,  

Shall I be the first one to say it? Winter is over.

Nah.....Autumn is over 

Right so we have moderate warming at best which will take weeks to propagate down, so in the medium term there is still little on offer.

Why not?

To the Atlantic . . .

Yeh but if its close to the west or south west than that is worse than if it was not there at all! Of course last year the -5 line was quite close especially as time went on and the bitterly cold -30 850s reached the UK as -5 850s. Warm air from the north west to south east though which are really the only directions that matter.

Come on everybody lets all cheer up and embrace the atlantic and all it will want to throw at us in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

It's not even the middle of November. The models aren't even going out as far as December yet, so making any forecasts about winter is ludicrous.

Might I remind you that at the beginning of December last year the model thread was full of predictions of anticyclonic gloom until the beyond Christmas, driest ever December in prospect etc.

Nobody has the foggiest clue what the weather is going to be doing in two weeks, let alone two months.

I thought the OPI was started last year? 

Yeh but thats a case of sods law.

"Just when life is at its lowest ebb, when you don't think anything can ever get any better, it suddenly get's worse!"

Which is Autumn

Some folk really need to get a grip!!

It's mid November (still autumn) in the British isles, and we have plenty of wind  rain forecasted... Shock!!! Horror!!! 

As I've seen mentioned already it does seem like one or 2 on here might have some sort of mild agender, perhaps hoping to prove something, and there are definetly a number of coldies with bipolar dramatics - first sign of the Atlantic and their doom and gloom, winters over etc etc, first sign of blocking and their ecstatic, polar bears and iceage is coming bla bla bla.

The weather will do what the weather wants, but this is the UK so we shouldn't expect a great deal with regards to cold & snow. 

Only a few days ago people were saying how frequent and notable northern blocking was at the moment (I was one of them). Very few were actually calling for a specific cold spell as it didn't show in the output. It was argued that the signs and signals were promising for some more unusual synoptic setups, potentially good signs as we head into winter. I'm sorry, that hasn't been proved wrong yet. Northern blocking has been more prolific so far throughout Summer/Autumn 2014 compared to 2013, I'm fairly confident of that.

Literally a few days later (a matter of hours), a flatter pattern is shown, and now several people are writing off the winter.

Unbelievable. Same old story, every year. When will people ever learn?! To think we have months and months of this..... :D

If the Models dont look great... wait 48 hrs.