Even by their standards that Express article is insane. 

I expect nothing less from the US...

On another note, any day, soon, I'm expecting the The Daily Ale to warn us of a Snowmageddon event..........

Any moment.......... Shouldn't be too long to wait........

The Met Office is now issuing dual warnings where a warning for two weather elements is relevant for broadly the same area at the same level of warning. First one issued today for wind and rain.

This makes sense and should reduce the instances where multiple individual warnings are posted for the same day which just creates a mess on the map. We had that a lot last autumn / winter. Good to see they have listened to feedback.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/dual-warnings/

The Met Office are almost bullish in their longer range forecast up to Mid December.

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Nov 2014 to Saturday 13 Dec 2014:

At the start of the period the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled weather to affect western parts of the UK, where rainfall may well be above average. Spells of rain are likely further east at times too but the best of the dry weather is expected here. As we head into December there are signs that rainfall amounts should become nearer normal. There is currently no signal for temperatures to become lower than average but instead stay around normal for many, perhaps slightly above, especially across southern Britain. Of course, a few rather colder spells are likely during any quieter periods of weather, with a chance of overnight mist and fog in places, and patchy frost - this may be more likely across northern areas.

Updated: 1126 on Fri 14 Nov 2014

 Sounds exciting doesn't it ?

MetO hedging its bets according to the 5-dayer on BBC News Channel last night. At the end of the 5-day more-or-less-certain period, high pressure could either take up residence over central Europe, with a dry and fairly mild SE flow; or over Scandinavia with ENE winds and much colder (and with a warm N Sea, it looks to me as if snow showers might feature, too)

A Marr this morning mentioned Sunday T quoted Met Office warned could face one of the wettest winters in 30 years. 

No link! Bothered not!

The update before that they was stating pretty much the same, so now there is flirts of something more cold in the MO thread is surprising given that meto outlook.

 I'm keeping my eye on you Steve...as when you get excited and appear more, I know something is brewing 

They're just holding the line rather than jumping around with the model output from run to run. It's the right approach. Sometimes it's better to say nothing rather than chop and change on your public facing forecast. This morning's GFS and GFSP both back the current Met forecast.

As others rightly highlight, it's simply impossible to be bullish about outcome into trend period (beyond D 10)... albeit a weak signal to resume mobility shows beyond D13, the inconclusive prognosis shown collectively through MOGREPS-15 and EC DECIDER products into next fortnight is well summarised by the UKMO Dep. Chief: "…the dominance of anticyclonic S-SE’ly or neutral-cyclonic S-SW’ly remains undecided, with implications for a possible drier, and colder spell."          

^^^^^ From Fergie on NW ^^^^^^^

Brian, I don't know what the computer is on churning out those White Christmas 2014 forecasts......

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

The computer says [Issued 16/11/2014 11:03:34]

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
Snow is expected in the Midlands
Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north

Snow is expected in Scotland

It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

........but it's absolute meteorological gibberish! There's no rational weather pattern that could produce the above.

It's the same computer that used to produce those old ceefax 5 day city outlooks

Yes there is.  In fact this seems like a very simple pattern, snow showers in Scotland, a trough in the midlands or a streamer or the showers getting inland (it isn't that unusual). The south could have a 850hpa of -4C or so while its more like -6C further north, likewise in a north easterly Ireland would be milder. And this fits perfectly with a cold dry neverlands. 

OK, work yesterday's out

The computer says [Issued 15/11/2014 15:02:44] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
Snow is expected in Wales
Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
Snow is expected in Scotland
It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
Snow is expected in the Netherlands.

This could be an amusing game in the run up to Xmas? 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2836587/Britain-facing-wettest-winter-33-years-warns-Met-Office-amid-claims-conditions-right-series-powerful-Atlantic-storms.html

I have asked the Fail for evidence to support their statement, which I believe to be lie with the deliberate intent of misinforming the public.   I doubt I will get a response.  

But unlike the Express, I believe that the Fail are signed up to the Press Complaints Commission.   So this may go on ....

A similar story was in the Sunday Times and apparently the Independent as well.

Since it is in at least three different newspapers with different owners, get the feeling that this story is closer coming from the horse's mouth than you think.

Presumably because exaggerating every aspect of wet weather in the south last winter was a big seller?

btw I see the Dimdependent are claiming it is going to be the wettest winter for 30 years ......

Conveniently ignoring the Met office saying that last winter was the wettest on record

It doesn't quite fit with this statement further down the page in the same Daily Mail article

The outlook's summary suggests that the probability that precipitation during the November to January period will fall into the wettest category is around 25 percent, although this comes with the caveat that the probability of it being in the driest category is 15 percent. 

Latest Meto outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Dec 2014 to Monday 15 Dec 2014:

At the start of the period the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled weather to affect western parts of the UK. Spells of rain are likely further east at times too but the best of the dry weather is expected here. As we head through the first week of December there are signs that rainfall amounts should become nearer normal. There is currently no signal for temperatures to become lower than average but instead stay around normal for many, perhaps slightly above, especially across southern Britain. Of course, a few rather colder spells are likely during any quieter periods of weather, with a chance of overnight mist and fog in places, and patchy frost - this may be more likely across northern areas.

Issued at: 0400 on Mon 17 Nov 2014

 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41#?tab=regionalForecast

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2836587/Britain-facing-wettest-winter-33-years-warns-Met-Office-amid-claims-conditions-right-series-powerful-Atlantic-storms.html

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-weather-heavy-rain-and-strong-gales-expected-in-wettest-winter-since-1981/ar-BBe5dPx?ocid=iehp

I expect what the press are using is the latest version of this:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/5/d/A3_plots-precip-OND_v2.pdf

although I can't find the current one by searching their website.

Here we go:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

FWIW I think the MetO have really upped their game in the last couple of years. Credit where it's due!