Cheers Gav

indeed around 30m/m in 12 hours for parts of the s/e

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/42h.htm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/54h.htm

a wet weekend but turning chilly next week and dry in my postcode so far so good.  12z with the bartlett in FI  suits me, hope to see cold and snow in new year. save on heating for xmas, i think we will see a temp drop in december, but an average UK december. which is fine by me,

The 30-day parallel evaluation of the 2014 GFS upgrade was restarted on November 20. Implementation will occur in January 2015.

Sorry David was waiting for both to go live

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Reminds me of last Winter with cold spilling a long way out in the Atlantic from North America.

Still look to me like there's little hope of a cold snap in the next couple of weeks or so. 

all i know is there is no hardcore cold or snow beore xmas. if you want that go to the states,

One interesting point is how different the sea ice distribution in the arctic is to previous years. In recent years we have consistentlyy seen extremely low ice cover in the atlantic, and normal or even above average ice cover in the pacific. Its a dramatic reversal this year with sea ice, I think, the lowest on record at the moment in the pacific sector, wheras kara is nearly completely filled. 

Does anyone know what impact this distribution could have on our weather? More atlantic ice means the cold air is closer to us, but is that a good thing? It is never as simple as it first seems.

Beware the GFS 'default to Atlantic in lower-res' characteristic.

ECM isn't even close to blowing the block away at day 10, with further trough disruption west of the UK continuing the stalemate. I wouldn't be surprised to see it persist until if and when the polar vortex takes a serious blow from the stratosphere.

Shifting focus back to the short term again for a bit, here's the latest Euro4 accumulation chart for the coming 48 hours, which now reaches the final departing stages of the frontal rainfall covering most of this weekend:

You can see the effect of high ground enhancing amounts as you'd expect. There's also a narrow band of totals some 10 mm higher than surrounding values extending NE from around Poole. This is where the frontal boundary spends most of Saturday.

If I do see 25 mm here as the model predicts, my month total will be at over 145 mm and with a wet outlook for the final week! Again reminiscent of November 2009... but also January 2014.

Looking on to how next week may pan out, GFS shows 'attack of the blobs' for Tuesday-Wednesday, as multiple regions of precipitation drift northward in association with a shallow trough that is also moving north. There's basically the bare minimum of circulation associated with the low... rather unusual for the time of year:

It bears resemblance to areas of thundery rain moving north in association with a plume of heat in summer or early autumn. There is some unusually 'warm' and moist air involved so perhaps it will bring some thundery conditions.

ECM looks to be in agreement with the location of the low at noon on Tuesday, but the track between then and noon Wednesday seems to be more NW than N.

Later in the week, the Atlantic launches another attack, but yet again it is unable to blast through the blocking high, with the jet splitting and troughs disrupting as a result, the battleline again being close to the Meridian. For the UK that means... yep, you've guessed it, more slow moving or stalled frontal systems to contend with.

It also continues to produce the highest totals in the south and west. Next result for the coming 8 days:

It doesn't look all that extreme on the face of it, fairly standard for a wet week and not on a par with what we kept seeing last winter - though the usual caveat about showers being overlooked does of course apply.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

Even this deep into FI the block looks strong, cold air showing its hand out to the East

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn31217.gif

On the face of it this could be seen as a poor chart for future cold if you focused on the polar vortex established over Greenland and a fairly strong Atlantic jet... but how about that blocking out east - what happens if it isn't flattened as was shown on the 12z op run?

Well...

It brings a serious build of cold air to Scandinavia while also giving the polar vortex enough trouble to leave it in tatters by the end of the run.

This is why I'm not worried about seeing that blocking high to our east sticking around as far as the winter as a whole is concerned... but of course the potential for a lot of rainfall during the next 10 days or so is of concern.

We simply can't 'know', or even predict, that on 21st November.....  

Cant really find anything positive to say. It surely cant be as bad as last year?

Euro4 has increased the intensity of today's narrow band of precipitation. However, the idea was that the westernmost band visible on radar at the moment would intensify and become the dominant feature between 6 and 9 am today, while tracking across the slice of England that has 35-36 mm in the above image, but the radar shows that this has not happened as of 8:22 am. In fact the easternmost band remains far more active than Euro4 predicted.

Perhaps the transition is delayed, but even if it is, it's clear we have a long way to go before accurate forecasts of slow moving frontal precipitation events can be relied upon 

Don't have much time but the overnight GEFS runs are very interesting towards the end. Best stepping through the individual runs because the 850s don't tell the story. They can all be viewed here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY NOVEMBER 22ND 2014.

NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23RD 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slow moving front across the SE of the UK will ebb and flow NW and back SE over the next 24-48hrs. Pressure becomes High over Northern Britain in light winds.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Slowly becoming windier and more changeable later next week and beyond with rain or showers and strong winds at times moving in from the West. Temperatures near or a little above average at times later, especially across the South where a few drier spells are possible too.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the weak flow around the UK at present persissting until later in the week when the flow strengthens close to Southern Britain moving further North across the UK later.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows the slack conditions across the UK continue with a front close to the South with  rain clearing by Monday, Then after a few quiet and chilly days a strengthening Southerly wind will bring more rain across from the West later in the week. This then marks a trend to mild SW winds and an alternating pattern of bands of rain follwed by showers under a mobile Atlantic regime developing for all through week 2.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is very similar to the operational model in theory and sequence and trend towards a mild and more mobile SW flow with High pressure to the South and Low to the North from the end of next week.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles also are broadly in line with the above account of proceedings over the coming two weeks with the caveat that this run shows a slightly longer period of disrupting Low pressure sliding SE across the UK into Europe later next week before it then develops the milder and more mobile SW flow the others indicate.

UKMO UKMO today shows very benign conditions giving way to freshening Southerly winds  and rain in from the West later this week as Low pressure slips SE to the West of the UK following the quieter and chillier couple of days early in the week.

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts continue to show the UK very much in nomansland over the later part of this coming week with troughs mostly slow moving and instrumental around the UK with rain at times in stagnant air.

GEM  GEM this morning too shows a much more mobile pattern developing across the UK in it's latter stages following the quieter and chillier feel to things over the coming 4-5 days though still with rain at times. Winds strengthen from the SW or West later with gales at times around deep Low pressure crossing east over or to the North of the UK delivering temperatures well up near the average for early December.

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the pack in showing a similar slow transition from the slow moving weather pattern currently with one much more mobile as Low pressure winds up to the North of the UK with strong West or SW winds delivering spells of rain and showers at times in mild conditions overall.

ECM  ECM this morning delivers closer to what I feared yesterday in that a gradual transition to mild West or SW winds around a High pressure belt from Eastern Europe to the Azores develops later as the Jet stream moves North and sets up a pattern that would bring the wetter conditions towards the North and West while all areas see temperatures harmlessly in the average or even mild category at times.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run shows a familiar pattern of Low to the NW and High to the SW and far East on this morning's run with a mild South or SW flow affecting the UK with frontal troughs close by especially towards the North and West with rain at times as a result.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend still is relatively one of Atlantic Low pressure gradually taking control of the weather with an increasing indication across most output that the Azores High could become more influential towards Southern Britain later.

MY THOUGHTS Scouring the charts this morning to find anything remotely wintry is becoming increasingly difficult as the Atlantic looks like becoming the dominating feature of the weather over the UK once the period of slack and benign pattern over the UK in the next 4-5 days gives way. All models show pressure falling from the NW and some disrupting troughs affecting principally the West of the UK will gradually extnd over to all areas later next week as the Atlantic winds up. Thereafter, it looks like winds will increase markedly across the UK from the West or SW, pressure will rise closer to the South at times and all areas see troughs crossing quickly East from deep Low pressures running East over or to the North of the UK. Fast moving bands of rain and showers look likely for most through Week 2 with some drier spells developing across the South at times. There seems little hope of anything that would suggest anything cold and wintry affecting the UK this side of mid December I'm afraid as the building blocks that are needed to deliver cold to the UK look like receding rather than developing around and over the UK over the period.

Cooling Climate told us, in truncated paragraphs, to get the thermals and wooly mitts out for the last third of the month, and SC scorned those who couldn't see how good it was looking. He said it was "rare as hens teeth" for him to get carried away and it was 70% in favour of cold flooding the mid-latitudes and we were in prime spot. 

Now of course there may be 'another'..... "Complete model u-turn" (as he called it) and we could get all this happen in the next week or two, I'm not calling it; what I am doing is highlighting the potential folly of calling situations at such range with such certainty, especially when the models actually weren't showing anything of the sort at the time when taking as a whole. 

Unsettled appears to be the continued form horse, but personally - and for no real reason - I just feel this won't last all winter as it did last year. SC is correct in that the setup is different synoptically from last winter as it currently stands, and I think the coldies will have their spell, even if briefly. 

for you maybe but I am better off in terms of frost this year...................so far

The upstream jet configurations on the GFSP and ECM 00z op runs work to pile energy NE and flatten the blocking high to our east from around day 7. GFS gets there a few days later, though the block refuses to lie down completely.

With low pressure spending much of the time well to the northwest of the UK, it's a very uninteresting setup to end the month on - a westerly regime with spells of rain at times, these not tending to amount to much across the SE in particular. Temperatures generally above average.

Longer-term GFS/GEFS and GFSP suggest that it may start to break down about a week into December, so it's far from 'game over' for the first half of December (let alone the whole month), but I would still rather see a more amplified pattern as we transition between the months, as that puts more pressure on the strat. vortex which can only be a good thing for later in the winter.

Is that a LRF Matthew