Looks like an omega-type blocking high are on the cards as we go into next week. While that is unlikely to bring that much in the way of proper wintry weather since that block in question is of Atlantic origin, it is infinitesimally preferable than cyclogenesis bombing depression systems smashing their way in. 
  A rest is as good as the . . . err . . . well, you know what I mean.

Evening chaps and chappesses.

I've come out of my summer hibernation to rejoin the madhouse for the mad winter season.

I've been watching developments with great interest and following the analysis of the great and the good on this wonderful forum, not least Gavin P and SC, who has been absolutely outstanding.

From my perspective, I have to admit, I have no views either way on the "OPI", but having read the hypothesis, it's certainly going to be interesting to analyse this theory throughout the course of the winter.

I have been working on other ventures this year, having started an OU degree in environmental and earth sciences, and so regret that my winter LRF for 2014/15 is running behind schedule. That said, it will be produced, but may not be for another week or so.

Suffice to say, I see enough interest in the models this year to suggest that we are not looking at a repeat of 2013/14 in my view, although equally, I don't think for one minute we are looking at a 1962/63 either.

I will post some more detailed analysis and thoughts in the coming days, but very happy to be back for the silly season.

okay so here are the same charts for the 500 geopot

3 day http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

5 day http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

8 day http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

10 day http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Greater accuracy yes although by day 10 the accuracy is not that much greater than for SLP (0.415 compared to 0.361 for ECM)

ECM still comfortably ahead of the other models on this measure as well.

Welcome back Moomin.  I spent some time going through some of the older msg forums on here, in which are some of your older forecasts for past winters, and i think you did a very good job with them.  For that reason im very much looking forward to your thoughts when you publish them.

Best of luck

It is the GFS as well as UKMO and the ECMWF - but more so GFS and ECMWF that differ than the UKMO when it comes to forecasting day 6 and and 7 outlook Model charts, the impression re: the Long wave and Short waves Splitting it seems to be as has been known for a long time this changes the forecast but different years show and reveal a actual and short to mid range forecasts ability that varies depending on what is happening with the Position behaviour and tracks of these systems of High Pressure and Low Pressure- and most often than not it is the both combination of Jetstream Split that is positioned out in the North Atlantic as has been the case for a very long time- most of the time our UK weather is much better positioned in relation to where the either SW to NE pattern goes or it dives SE.

I always think and look at the Europe and North Atlantic and the USA especially the area South to North running from 40 deg. South to about 70 deg. North.

We will always need to keep watching upto days 5-7 max for being able to put clear synopsis and forecasts based on where x and Y is to go.

I generally often take some time off worrying not about saying what to happen as the output is always changing especially in November to March in general- our part of Europe is less often affected by interesting cold and frosty wintry weather but though there are some exceptions that in some winters it can take upto from November to Mid December for our fortunes to change and provide us some wanted winter snow frost and crisp cold sunshine!!!.

Thanks Stormchaser for that GFS charts discussion talking about how the forecasted day 6-7 chop and change.

The Situation at the moment is not that clearly exciting but it may get interesting after this month gives way to December.

Next weeks weather is still not clear cut yet in my books ahem.

By the way also not forget to mention watching the NW N and NE Pacific Jetstream and Weather systems, and Siberia Svalbard Iceland Greenland and Russia as well as NE Europe it is all these places that checking how the Weather systems are affecting parts of the Northern Hemisphere particularly in Late Autumn and All of winter months, even March and April can provide some good Synoptics.

I've seen the GFS ahead at day 10 before. It varies.

very interesting GW and thanks for posting. I suspected this may have been the case- GFS too keen on monster lows and Atlantic domination in lower res for my liking, but sometimes reasonable at spotting a new trend.

Something to bear in mind is the fact each Model performs different in different weather conditions. Each Model as we know has its own faults the statics are for that moment in time thus in general terms ecm generally seems to leads at the moment but dependent on what it faces with what’s ahead.

Hope that makes sense

Thanks for the stats GW.The key figure for me is the  higherr ECM v GFS verification from 144 to 240h 240h ,though both are pretty low by 240h!

Something we would all do well to keep at the front of our minds over the next 4 months. Certainly a hint at something different yesterday, let's hope the model runs today keep the theme going. If you prefer the cold that is

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack pressure area across the UK will slowly give way to a freshening SE flow tomorrow and Friday

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow gradually strengthening over the Atlantic over the next week and crossing on a more direct West to East motion in the vicinity of the UK thereafter.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows disrupting Low pressure to the West of the UK by the weekend with a ridge from High pressure both to the East and to the West of the UK lying across Britain for the latter part of the weekend. Then the High to the West becomes the dominant feature moving into Southern Britain at times and lying just to the SW at others. A strong Westerly flow will lie across the North then with cloud and occasional rain in relatively milder air. The South close to the High pressure will see lighter winds and patchy frost and fog where clearer skies prevail.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is in unison with the operational in the first half of the period with the Atlantic High held slightly more out over the Ocean meaning once a few nights of chilly and potentially frosty conditions early next week a West or NW wind would bring rather cloudy winds for all with benign weather types developing when temperatures remain near average or perhaps a little above. A little rain is likely across the North from fronts passing by to the North whereas elsewhere would be mostly dry. Frost and fog would be limited in this arrangement as the UK would be covered in a lot of shallow cloud. the end of the run illustrates an attack from the North with colder and frosty weather likely should it evolve.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also follows the same basic pattern with High pressure to the SW of the UK looking the most likely option with time bringing rather cloudy and benign weather to all regions in temperatures generally settling close to normal after a few cold days early next week under a brief Northerly.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles this morning show the most favoured point likely to be held in two weeks from now is the UK to be locked in a trough from Low pressure close to or over the North of the UK with the Jet flow quite well South with unsettled and at times chilly weather with rain at times and snow over Northern hills, though this brought about on a mostly Westerly flow.

UKMO UKMO today shows a finger of High pressure lying across Central Britain at the weekend and start of next week. A large High is developing in the Atlantic with abroad Westerly flow across the North and a slacker easterly breeze over the far South. Many areas would become dry but probably rather cloudy with patchy frost and fog away from the windier North and far South.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support the models raw data well this morning with a freshening SE flow in a day or two gradually backing Easterly and dying down over the weekend. Complex troughs will gradually decay and move away from the UK as pressure rises later.

GEM GEM this morning also shows High pressure dveloping over the Atlantic next week, although it is further away from the UK which opens the door to the North on this run with a shift towords cold North winds and a temporary burst of wintry showers and overnight frosts towards the end of next week.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains a ridge across the UK throughout this morning's run once the keen SE flow at the start of the weekend subsides. Dry weather would prevail for many with some frost and fog patches at times in locations where skies clear by night.

ECM ECM this morning develops High pressure in from the West too next week and with the centre lying over the UK for a time the lack of a West flow rounding the North of the High is less influential giving all areas mist, fog and frost in abundance. Late in the run a small but vigorous Low to the SW does the UK a favour by preventing the High from collapsing South and allowing it to strengthen North through the Atlantic by Day 10 which would feed a brief cold Northerly down across the UK just outside the term of the run as Low pressure exits East away from the Northern Isles.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run shows strong support for much of the UK to be under quiet and anticyclonic conditions in 10 days time with much of the UK likely to have surface air pressure values in excess of 1020mbs. The centre of High pressure will be of paramount of importance as to what conditions will be experienced in any one place at the surface in terms of frost and fog amounts.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a strong trend this morning for the UK to become under the influence of High pressure from the Atlantic in one shape or form from next week.

MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be settling down in terms of agreement in that the UK is likely to become influenced by High pressure originating from the Atlantic next week. What is not in agreement is where that High pressure will eventually lie and it is this that will become important in ascertaining day to day conditions in any one place. The one constant is that there will be a lot of dry weather over the UK with only brief flirtations with fairly weak troughs giving a little rain at times chiefly to the North. Apart from that there is little agreed consensus on the resting place for the High with some output including ECM bringing the High across the UK meaning clear and cold conditions would develop with extensive frost and fog issues, slow to clear by day. There is also support for the High to lie or become close to SW Britain bringing an ever cloudy and benign WNW flow over the UK which means the air would infill with shallow cloud off the Atlantic and bring days of anticyclonic gloom but temperatures close to average with small diurnal variations. As usual the longer term models toys with bringing the occasional blast of chill down from the North later as the High relaxes and rebuilds North over the Atlantic but from past experience this just means a reset pattern once the following ridge topples over. The main hindrance of this High should it evolve as shown the Jet stream will be riding East to the North of the UK which will have the effect of suppressing the High South or SW and this theory has acquired some support from the ECM Ensemble 10 Day chart just released so I have to favour the least desirable option of it likely to be lying close to SW Britain with time and ensuring that no real notable weather of any kind affects the UK. There is of course a lot of water to pass under the bridge before the resting place of the Atlantic High is finally nailed as the block to the East has to subside cleanly first and the disrupted Low pressure down over Iberia in the short term behaves as anticipated currently. As a result I anticipate more shifts in forecast for the period of next week onward over the coming model runs as the synoptic pressure pattern changes.

 A tilt towrrds the Atlantic in GEFS ENS this morning ,.At 240h HP in the majority but increasing Atlantic and Biscay HP.By 360 h Atlantic dominates with anticyclonic ENS being Biscay/Atlantic.The block to the east is pushed away SE.

There is always the possibility that the HP at 240h could develop into something colder.  However the absence of any height increases to   the north suggests that  likelihood is for the HP block to the east to be squeezed away SE.

Still I'll take the possible frosty spell next week -anything to get rid of the current  cloudy gunk.

Contrary to Roger's post above, I was just thinking that the height rises to the north could easily allow the UK high to become a notable block if the Atlantic flow amplified enough:

...but to be fair, the high still gets flattened, and the GFSP 00z does not hold such promise:

...but if you want to see a situation where GFS's progressive trait really shows, the following chart is somehow followed by low heights taking over Greenland:

Past experience tells me that in these situations with such a notable -ve AO, the Atlantic jet is nearly always walled off.

Which makes me wonder where ECM is going at day 10:

Hints of a split in the trough by Greenland, along with warm air advection up the western coast of Greenland and a low sliding south towards Europe to support a high around Svalbard.

It looks like a close call, but these sort of 'unclean' scenarios can sometimes produce results from high latitude ridges sat above European lows.

So that soon-to-be Euro low is the critical difference really, or at least part of it; it's a slower progression of the upstream trough through Canada that allows the sliding low to escape phasing with it. GFS is faster with the Canadian trough and phasing occurs.

GEM matches ECM for progression of said trough, and also makes less of it, giving an end result that would be very promising indeed if only it had the Arctic High modeled in the same way as GFS and ECM:

So, this morning has brought lots of potential for a cold outbreak from the north for the second week of December, but GFS and GFSP have displayed their usual tendency to be the most progressive with the upstream trough and in doing so have denied us some entertaining lower-res output to remark upon 

Interesting comment from Matt H on Twitter about the ECM ENS.....

Good analysis there SC..I Concur 100% with that.

Dont have access to Twitter in work.

FI back to mild southwesterlies with no real sign of cold developments.

Transient coldfronts cliping scotland.  Fog and frost for southern counties of England, where winds fall light and skies clear.

Will be interesting to see what the GEFS says about this, as this is more of a milder solution than has been progged recently.  Hopefully an outlier.

On another note - has anyone noticed the pattern for atlnatic based deep lows to be forecast - and then on every subsequent runs the low backs off and lessens in intensity?  I think this could play into our hands if and when we see colder weather.

Hi Russ, here you go:

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81

26 out of the 51 EC ENS members from the 00Z run show potential blocking to the NW of the UK and a poss N'ly by approx 6th of Dec...

 

Hi Russ, here you go:

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81  ·  2h 2 hours ago

26 out of the 51 EC ENS members from the 00Z run show potential blocking to the NW of the UK and a poss N'ly by approx 6th of Dec...

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

That's very encouraging. 

Its 50/50 but about the only positive we can hold onto for the time being

 

Hi Russ, here you go:

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81  ·  2h 2 hours ago

26 out of the 51 EC ENS members from the 00Z run show potential blocking to the NW of the UK and a poss N'ly by approx 6th of Dec...

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

cheers dude :)

Hi Kieran, it is encouraging, FWIW I think we could be on for a 'snap' in December, certainly a world away from last year thank goodness.