Thanks Martin, it all helps me to get things straight in my head so it may as well be of benefit to others as well 

Of course, It's only thanks to you that can only afford to explore the model output in such detail  - without your detailed summaries each day, I would spend a large part of my time putting that stuff together prior to any investigation of what may be or have been.

We've recently seen the return of a number of other valued winter/spring (for the most part) contributors who are further adding to the value of this forum to those interested in the weather and/or computer models.

So cheers everyone, let's keep up the good work and hope for a great season to discuss 

Good evening all,

My last MO prognosis verified reasonably well, cooler air was introduced from the north and it does appear that HP over the country looks the probably prognosis into next week.  Slightly more cloud about in the present and possibly into next week although 'frequent fog' looks like it was a good shout.

So into the next 7-10 days, again a quick review of the ENS at this range:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

We appear to have a weak vortex to the north of us keeping the possiblities for decent cold pooling into W.Europe as rather limited.  The setup into next week looks to start cloudy, but with the jet passing to our north I would expect some weak fronts to pass over the north especially and possibly the south to clear the skies towards the end of the period.  Therefore, second half of period sees  brighter and frostier conditions where weak frontal systems pass through (particularly in the north), but in between these I think some inversions bringing lingering fog, potential freezing inland, towards the end of the period.

You are both great value posters and I appreciate the effort both of you make! Although I don't post as often as I used to, 2 kids took care of that, one thing I have learnt from people like your good selves is that all types of weather at all times of year are great. Being on TWO for many years now has helped me to appreciate this more! At first I was just a winter type, but now I look at TWO threads, such as model output almost every day and all year. So thanks guys for stoking my interest and keep it going😀

PS a dry interlude via a cold and frosty high would be okay for early December IMO, but sure the models will chop and change as always.....

Yes, the same here!

HERE IS MY LATEST NO FRILLS ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A strengthening SE airflow will develop across the British Isles later, today, tonight and through tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow simplifying but fairly strong in a flatter pattern across the far North of the British Isles through the latter stages of next week before slowly migrating South towards Southern England later in the period.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows that High pressure will soon become the dominating factor over the British Isles following the passage of a cold front SE early next week. It's centre is shown to lie across Southern Britain innitially before weak cold fronts attack it from the NW on occasion only for it to rebuild in situ over the UK once any front has passed maintaining the dry weather with variable cloud and only very occasional rainfall and periods of mist and fog and local frost issues intermittently over the whole period.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run keeps High pressure just that little bit further towards the SW and this allows some troughs SE across the UK at times with some rain at times chiefly in the North. On each passage of fronts a slice of colder clearer air will likely deliver frost and fog night and morning in places before the skies gradually infill with cloud off the North atlantic ahead of the next front. Late in the run the High slip further South allowing a more pronounced dig of unsettled and at times colder weather across all areas with some rain and snow on Northern hills.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows High pressure being the dominating factor across the UK. It's centre over the South next week gives rise to frost and fog issues and rather cold conditions as a result for a time. Later in the run as the prallel run the High shifts further to the South and allows a charge of more unstable and Low pressure from the NW to bring rain for all and as this clears to the SE later winds switch NE with cold and grey skies with rain, sleet and snow in SE areas with drier and clearer weather in the NW.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles show that the most likely scenario is for a pattern towards Low pressure to the North of the UK and High pressure near the Azores is the most likely place we arrive at in two weeks from now with rain at times for all in average temperatures. In the short term High pressure close to southern Britain next week will keep things dry and chilly here with night and morning mist, fog and frost issues.

UKMO UKMO today shows a trough of Low pressure moving away East early next week having introduced cold and cleaner air to all of the UK with frost by night. As High pressure then moves in over Southern Britain midweek fog will also become an issue in the South while the North becomes rather cloudy but largely dry and less chilly as winds freshen from the WSW.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support the models raw data well this morning with a freshening SE flow in a day or two gradually backing Easterly and dying down over the weekend. Complex troughs will gradually decay and move away from the UK for a time before occluded fronts move in from the West late on the 5th day.

GEM  GEM this morning also shows High pressure developing to the SW next week replacing the slack weather pattern of the weekend with a light North or NW flow following a trough East. This will bring a day or two of cleaner air with patchy frost and fog at night. Cloud will roll around the top of the High by midweek extinguishing the frost and fog issues and as the High then relocates to an intense feature in the mid Atlantic the door is open for cold weather to arrive on Northerly winds for all with wintry showers in the North and East together with frost at night for many.

NAVGEM NAVGEM prefers to keep a ridge across the UK from the High over Eastern Europe in a weeks time with dry and benign conditions for all with frost and fog patches in places, slow to clear in the light winds.

ECM  ECM this morning maintains the theme developed yesterday in that High pressure to the SW of the UK looks the driving force from next week. There will be a period of chilly and frosty weather early next week especially over the South as the High drifts over Southern Britain for a time following an early week cold front. From the charts late in the period a rinse and repeat pattern looks likely in the days that follow with another cold front introducing another pulse of chillier and cleaner air with patchy frost and fog in the South following a cloudier and milder interlude for all with a little rain.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES A slightly more encouraging 10 Day ensemble chart this morning shows High pressure further out onto the Atlantic towards the Azores with a ridge to the UK moving SE ahead of a Westerly flow. With a Jet flow sinking South synopticsjust to the East of the UK conditions look encouraging for an impending Northerly flow a few days on.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the SW of the UK over the period.

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to theme around High pressure to lie close to the SW of the UK through the period. This makes predicting day to day and place to place conditions at this time of year very difficult but I would have to base the theme as a fairly dry outlook with only small amounts of rain at times as weakening cold fronts make their way SE at times. What is far more difficult to predict is how much cloud is trapped within the High's circulation which can of course have major implications of amounts of fog and frost that occur and how once formed this clears each day as this can have a massive impact on daytime and nightime temperatures. These details cannot be predicted at this stage as the positioning of the High will help dictate this come the time. Basically if it makes landfall across the South which is shown by some output then frost and fog could be widespread and persistent but if it is held to the South and SW as some other output shows then cloud spilling arond the North of the High along with more in the way of a Westerly breeze will keep things milder and benign for many. Then we move on to where we go later in the run with the majority showing some degradation of the High both away from the UK and also to the West which in theory opens the door to cold air from the North of the UK to advance South and perhaps give the chance of some snow for some in the North and East later. With a predicted slow shift South of the Jet flow over Europe in Week 2 this becomes a distinct possibility and is becoming the UK's best shot at cold in the near future so lets see if it develops and gains cross model support in the next few days. In the meantine we must settle down to a period of benign and quiet conditions weatherwise with chasing cloud cover along with frost and fog patches and the odd patch of rain the most exciting it gets over the next 10 days or so I'm afraid.

GEFS ens have HP lodged to the SW of the UK.This counts as my least favorite synoptic situation Its HP without sunshine and frost.Cloudy mild air from the west or  northwest dry an boring temperatures.By 240h the ens show the Atlantic in control with a strong sw/w flow.

A more scattered pattern at the end of FI but liitle sign of cold dominance.

Indeed. Kevin may be able to dig out some obscure examples of cold winters with a strong Azores HP, but in general they are likely to be average to mild. 

when do pro forecasters/forecasters start issueing there full winter thoughts/forecasts. ??? 

Normal service has resumed, hang on but it had never gone away 

I wouldn't worry because as soon as they do and they go for Average to a Mild Winter this place will go into meltdown. If you want something more Ice-Age extreme then purchase the Express within the next week 

Now back to the models..  The GEFS still have some snow symbols but a few have dropped to only 5%.... so the same old same old then 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

HP to the south well in control . Succession of LP systems darting west to east across the north of the uk.  When one moves away from canada another develops in its wake.  This by the looks of it, is the start of the PV starting to get a bit more organised.

Could we be heading into another pattern of a winter dominated by Northerly topplers? same as the early 2000's?

About as bad as it gets. We can almost write off much of December if the pattern is locked like this

OMG worst winter model output ever - oh no hang on its November phew. At least it looks different to last year and will be nice to have some dry weather

The model i pasted above actually reminds me alot of the winter from last year.  Just not as much energy and a stronger HP to our south.  Effectlively shunting everything 500 miles north.

Saying that, Im not taking this as gospel. Its just discussion.  Models might be different in a few days.

Things were looking incredibly blocked to our north east last week.. now not so much.

if winter was going to be spectacular im sure a forecaster would of called it in by now, i think we are in for a bit of everything this winter mild/cold/snow/rain wind/ ect, a mixed bag, just a hunch, from what im seeing and hearing

What is it with this N. Atlantic high pressure off the Bay Of Biscay!?? - Just doesn't want to move for 2 weeks. Is this called the Bartlett high?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

All in the wrong place is it not???

Its not just that it wont move.. its that it stretches so far south.  Weve just got rid of the wrong kind of Scandi HP which stretched down to Cairo and back.  To replace it with an even worse kind of HP, which looking at the GFS will draw in air from somewhere near the tropics!

Why cant we get a HP that stretches over to the Bearing straight?!?

Return of the 'Bores' hp. Doesn't get much worse than this IMO.

It goes by the title 'Displaced Azores High' in which the centre aligns further NE of the Azores than usual, often near SW Ireland or SW England and gives rise to familiar cloudy and benign days with little fog, frost or sunshine resulting in little diurnal variation in temperature in a light WNW flow. It can become remarkably persistent and intense as the GFS 06z shows. It has also been the bug bear of many past Winter synoptic over past years but it is much too early to say that this will feature prominently this season though I confess it looks a bit worrying at the moment.