10mb strat temps from GFS:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=10&carte=1

If someone can scroll through them and tell me where the 'forecasted' warming at 10mb or lower is I'd be grateful.

HERE IS WHERE I  GIVE MY TWICE A DAY ANALYSIS OF THE OUTPUT FROM  5 OF THE MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS IN THE WORLD AND GIVE AN INSIGHT AS WHAT WEATHER MAY BE UP AND COMING ACCORDING TO THESE SUPERCOMPUTERS.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Easterly or SE flow across the UK will back ENE tomorrow and decrease.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow undulating North and South across the UK over the next week on the Northern flank of High pressure to the SW. In Week 2 a flat West to East flow over Scotland will persist with little change through that period between High pressure to the South and Low to the North of Scotland.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows that High pressure firstly to the SW and later to the South of the UK ensures the UK lies in a broad and eventually quite mild Westerly flow with little significant weather features affecting the UK. Some rain from fronts to the NW will undoubtedly affect the North and West at times but the South will see a lot of dry and potentially mild if rather cloudy weather with very minimal amounts of frost and fog.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar in structure as it moves through the period with the caveat that High pressure slips further away to the South later in the run with more influence of cloud and rain off the Atlantic and the hint of a pattern change from the North right out at the extremities of the run.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run mirrors the operational well this morning with mild Westerly winds affecting all of the UK with the North seeing some rain at times while the South stays fairly dry and benign day and night.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles show that the most likely scenario over the next few weeks is covered well by the operational, control and parallel runs in that there is strong agreement from most of the members that mild Westerly winds on a flat West to East pattern will become dominant through the period covered with limited amounts of fog and frost.

UKMO UKMO today shows a belt of High pressure stretching from the Azores to SW England by next Thursday with most of the UK dry and bright with patchy frost and fog but temperatures close to average outside of where any fog lingers. The NW will be rather cloudier and breezier but milder than elsewhere.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weak cold front clearing SE through the middle of next week as pressure then builds from the SW. A lot of cloud at times will clear midweek to a chillier period with frost and fog patches in the South in light winds.

GEM  GEM is the shining beacon for cold lovers this morning as it replaces quiet and benign High pressure based weather through much of next week with a plunge of cold Arctic air and Low pressure next weekend with spells of rain and showers falling as sleet and snow to quite modest levels anywhere in the UK under cold and fresh NNE winds.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High to the SW and Low to the NE by next weekend with a chilly and fresh NW flow with colder weather with a few wintry showers across the North and East for a time soon to be replaced by a cold and frosty ridge moving in from the West next weekend.

ECM  ECM this morning is not without interest for cold fans as the High pressure remains a little further out in the Atlantic and with lower pressure towards Scandinavia the tendency for cold fronts to cross South over Britain later next week is high with wintry showers flooding South briefly later next week before milder air topples over the top of a ridge crossing SE over the weekend.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES High pressure towards the SW of the UK remains the powerhouse within the 10 Day ensemble chart with Westerly and relatively mild weather engulfing the UK with limited rainfall for the NW and even more limited amounts of frost and fog across the South.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the SW of the UK over the period with a variety of long term solutions shown.

MY THOUGHTS The weather patterns shown by the models all hinge around the positioning of High pressure close to the South or SW of the UK and the resultant weather brought about by that positioning. The one certainty is that nowhere is going to see much in the way of rain over the next two weeks with the main thrust of Atlantic depressions held well away to the North. GFS this morning has Black Friday fever and is a horror show on all sets of it's output this morning showing a very flat West to East Jet flow over Scotland and keeping High pressure over France with resultant mild and benign conditions for much of the UK. Conversely GEM is the bright light for cold fans illustrating a plunge into a wintry scenario with cold and wintry North winds and snow for some as Low pressure develops and plunges SE across the UK then NW Europe next weekend. ECM this morning has some interest in that field too as it brings a brief Northerly late next week with enough potency to deliver some wintry showers and some sharp night frost before the inevitable toppler ridge follows a few days after. What all this means is that the models are struggling to handle how and where High pressure is likely to sit later next week and small synoptic differences in positioning can have major impacts on surface conditions across the UK. From what I can see there are three options on the table. 1. The High takes a GFS storyline with benign and mild Westerly winds taking precedence with limited weather features of any kind. 2 The High centre sits over the South of the UK with more in the way of frost and fog as a result in the Southern half of the UK or 3 the High sits out further into the Atlantic with a trend for pressure to be lower over Scandinavia helping as a catalyst to aid cold Northerly winds to cross down over the UK albeit briefly before a toppler ridge follows. The Jury is out on which of these options will actually verify but I will say the GEM operational though mouthwatering for many is probably a little extreme but nice to see anyway. So despite a lot of disappointing and benign looking conditions borne out of a flat Westerly pattern is shown this morning there is some more interesting  output on offer and as I indicated a day or so ago I wouldn't mind placing a wager on our best chance of a first taste of winter will come from the North, something akin to ECM or GEM this morning given time.

Incidentally, no report from me tomorrow, too busy with work I'm afraid but back for Sunday

Hi Gibby, I am not normally one to comment on your posts and they do make good reading - thankyou for providing these.

However I must say that I don't agree with the 'So despite a lot of disappointing and benign looking conditions', surely anything is better than what we had last year with all the flooding, wouldn't you agree?

Poor output yet again but that should be no surprise.

If sky's are clear then frost and fog could be a feature under high pressure but that's a big if.

A bit more amplification to the flow on the morning ECM and GEM runs. Actually, a lot more on the GEM run and ECM not far away:

GFS and GFSP are a lot flatter with the pattern at day 6, which is no surprise at all. It means they don't achieve the separation of the Canadian and Atlantic troughs that's required for the ECM or GEM pattern to evolve.

UKMO is close to ECM so there's a fair bit of weight behind the more amplified solution.

Hopefully GFS will start showing something as interesting as the other models soon, because I'm getting tired of seeing negative mood posts on here that are clearly the result of focusing on the GFS runs rather than considering the output of many models.

If all the models were showing flat jets and 'displaced Azores/Bartlett highs' then I would say fair enough. Hope that doesn't come back to bite me 

For those with the razor blades out this morning (though not sure why), there are some interesting posts from Matt H on twitter, this for example:

'Some interesting signs from the latest EC32 one obvious sign is a complete lack of a polar vortex/low over the pole throughout December'

The ECM northern hemisphere plots have been converted to the same format as the GFSP ones. 850s and 500hpa / MSLP. I've scaled them down here but the full size ones are on the chart viewer.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Its a little off topic, but I have to say; Brian is really excelling himself on the TWO charts at the moment. They are fantastic.

The model output over the past week has been very uninspiring I have to say. First the eastern block which was doing nothing for us, now we're look to be heading into Bartlett-esque territory.

'At least it's not wet like last winter' some say but it seems forgotten that the unsettled weather last winter didn't get going until about the 13th of December. Late November-early Dec last year was mostly settled with high pressure from the south dominating. Very similar to this year. (+the strong jet)

ECM +120 forecast. Dec 1st last year.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014112800/ECM1-120.GIF

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-12-2-0-0.png

Not saying we will see a repeat of last winter, that was a freakish perhaps once in a lifetime occurrence but to me the current pattern looks pretty rubbish for cold for the foreseeable future. Hopefully we can see a shift in time for Christmas.

single digits temps for many next week, will certainly feel chilly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.gif

A significant cluster on the ECM ensembles go noticeably cold from about the midway point - in fact, it's the largest cluster on the chart. Several GEFS runs opting for a Mid Atlantic/UK High pressure, so at least the options are there and the weather isn't as miserable as it was a year ago. It's not the meteorological winter for another 3 days yet so nothing to get too depressed about. Some mild, some chilly and some reasonably seasonal weather on offer over the next week or two. Nothing to get too dramatic about

What's the odds one of the pub runs tonight gives us a 'Carling'?

With all the observations and opinions at the moment it is always worth noting that the modelled diagnostics will always swing to and fro offering all sorts of solutions as they do. Whatever the models predict, the future is in a nutshell uncharted territory and will do whatever it does without any assistance from algorithms and theories and subjectiveness.

To illustrate my point, and as an amusing reminder during this 'quiet' period of model-watching, here again is something I penned several years ago. I've added a few lines to update it a bit LOL. Sorry mods - way off topic. Enjoy:

Waiting for the snow

I’m waiting for the snow. 

Ten days out, it all looks fine,
the models are coming into line.
On each run it seems the more they try
To slowly build a Scandy high.

A week away, and blues not greens
Are flooding my computer screens.
With sub-zero air from way out East
That retrogressing block is quite a beast.

Four days to go, and the latest chart
Is superb – some say a work of art:
A deepening low moves into France
And now there’s a 70/30 chance
Of ‘disruptive snow’, a ‘blizzard’, a ‘storm’
(a polar low could even form).

The Weatheroutlook is hot to touch
For some it’s getting all too much.
Q’s fingers burn, and then there’s Gooner
who says ‘ why didn’t this happen sooner?’
Steve Muir is frantic – his keyboard’s worn out,
A hundred year event’s about
To hit us all with lasting snow
And thermometers fall as we watch the low.

A day to go and the warnings are out:
‘Severe winter weather is about
to block our roads, to close our shops.’
The wind picks-up and the pressure drops.

I try to sleep, to clear my head
So I leave the net and head for bed.
A restless night with fleeting dreams
(too excited about the snow it seems)
In the night I hear the gale
A freezing blast – an icy wail
But I resist the urge and sleep to dawn
And prepare to greet the arctic morn.

The first words I hear are the wife complaining,
‘Wake-up! And by the way, it’s raining.’

N S Robinson 2004

^^^^^^

Hi all,

It's JMA Friday with today's video update:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Also still trying to make sense of next week's weather. Think it will be mostly dry and quite cool.

#FrostAndFog

I always loved this poem and had a good laugh at the new version.

the dark humour reminds me of the mid 2000's when the models would come out with some fantastic charts only for it to go wrong at t-06.

We don't have to worry about that yet, all good charts are out in FI!

andy

have i just entered the right weather forum, this is WEATHER OUTLOOK TWO, cos i thought i just read a poem above LMFAO , great poem why not post another nothing else happening, looking cold dry average frost fog next week, from what im reading, suits me

It's quiet because everyone is out buying Snow Shovels in the Black Friday Sales, apart from Matty of course who's opted for a pair of flip flops and sun lotion instead 

..Anyway still them little snow symbols showing  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Bit of a chilly wind for the SE on Tuesday http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=uv10&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

The new northern hemisphere plots are now available from the GFS op as well as GFSP and ECM:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Well the UKMO and the GFS today 12z maintain that Central Mid N Atlantic UK and Europe Belt of three Highs, are showing settled dry and not cold but fairly cool December Weather.

And Deep North NE Atlantic S and SE Greenland Iceland areas of cold wintry and stormy weather around the Arctic Circle.

The large Arctic High in Arctic to our NNE (NE of Svalbard, will move towards North and NE Greenland and push very cold subzero Arctic Air to East and SE Greenland and over Iceland by the the Deep PV Lows Northern and NE Atlantic away from UK and West plus Central And Mid North Europe where Atlantic High and Europe High maintain.

Later in NW Atlantic A Very Cold High might try and extend through Greenland and link NNE to Arctic High of 1030-1035mbs, while It gets Iceland to get Cold Cyclonic flow with NW blast there extend SE but the UK still fine with dry bright High Pressure oriented domination.

 Nice poem Neil 

GFS remains as stubborn as ever tonight. The difference between it and UKMO is clear to see at day 6:

The key differences begin to materialise on the previous day, with UKMO starting to dig the trough down from Canada into the U.S. while GFSP shows no such inclination. The model hasn't even trended in any direction with that since this morning. Meanwhile GFS has actually trended a little flatter!

GEM digs the trough down as much as UKMO on day 5, and by day 7 the more amplified solution is really showing its hand:

The bombing out of low pressure on both sides of the ridge reflects the typical bias of the model, so this is likely overdoing things quite substantially.

Odds are the ridge will be a toppler, but if we can get it to extend right up through Greenland, it will be a good milestone on the road to taking down the strat. vortex later in the month.

There's also the possibility of a trough becoming cut-off across Europe and supporting the fallen form of that ridge for a few days as I mentioned with regards to the GEM 00z op run. Still transitory cold for the UK, but far more entertaining than the flatter evolutions GFS and GFSP keep throwing out for the 6-10 day period.

Important ECM and JMA runs tonight - if they back UKMO/GEM there will be a very strong voice in favour of some chilly weather about a week into December with a chance of snow, albeit very low away from the north. Even with it's extreme evolution, GEM is on a knife edge for the evening of Saturday 6th. The big issue is low-level modification of the Arctic air mass by the relatively 'warm' sea surface temperatures.