For us or u.s?

Cold air for US too as in USA!!!?

Quantum - am I looking at the wrong charts!?- this is what I am getting:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014112900/run/cfs-0-870.png?00

Either way - It does seem the more volatile like winter weather (beit wind, rain, snow or blizzards and cold... (the main action of weather wont be until end of December now!). At least it's not raining relentlessly and wet like last year!!

I am often amused by how much analysis there is of the super long-range CFS charts, so far into FI that you could measure the time interval in lightyears. Still, it's a model discussion thread and all model charts are fair game I suppose.

To the here and now, and up to +144 there seems to be good agreement on a predominantly high pressure regime, with the centre of the sausage seeming to drift a bit North with each run. This has an impact on the surface with fog and frost in abundance next week IMO, and a cool drift in the south at times.

There are all sorts of options on the table further out, but further out = FI and I don't normally go there.

It wasn't just me then... Playing a 'spot the difference' in the charts, Quantum's chart is labelled 'CFS - 9 mois' whereas the above chart is 'CFS -  1 mois'. ... Different runs like GFS and GFSP?

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 1ST 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Slack pressure over the UK will prevail with weak troughs slowly clearing SE but returning SW across the East later today.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to highlight a generally flat Jet Stream pattern with it's West to East axis lying across the North of the UK around High pressure to the South.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows High pressure dictating the conditions across the UK through the period. The positioning alternates between a point to the South with milder Westerly winds covering the UK and to the SW and West at times later allowing polar air to cross SE behind successive and stronger cold fronts with rain at times later followed by cold and frosty weather with some wintry showers towards the North and East later

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar in status although the push of colder air is less pronounced for the most part. It does show a separate High pressure crossing East across the UK and on to Europe making for more in the way of frost and fog for a time before colder air slips South again late in the run.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run mirrors the operational well this morning with mild Westerly winds affecting all of the UK with the North seeing some rain at times while the South stays fairly dry and benign day and night.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles also show a fairly flat pattern with persistent High pressure to the South and SW  minataining generally benign Westerly winds across the UK with just the briefest intervention of colder conditions from the North at times before a pattern reset takes place repeatedly.

UKMO UKMO today shows a riddge of High pressure about to topple SE across the UK late next week and weekend replacing the brief cold Northerly airflow across the UK after midweek. Dry and bright weather for many with frost and fog patches at night seem likely in rather cold conditions.

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure across the UK for the period with a NE flow over the South and a SW flow to the NW with dry and fine weather for many with areas of fog and frost in relatively dry and benign condions the most likely forecast

GEM  GEM shows a similar pattern to the rest with High pressure to the SW persistent and instrumental in providing a lot of dry and quiet weather for the UK with areas of cloud, mist, fog and frost at times the biggest factors controlling our weather. Occasional interventions of colder and more unstable weather will hit the North at times and these are indicated to perhaps trend South somewhat late in the run.

NAVGEM NAVGEM brings a change to colder weather than the rest following a cold front South later this week with new High pressure forming near Scotland before drifting towards Scandinavia and allowing cold NE winds across the South to be complicated by disrupting Low pressure feeding in from the NW or West later with wintry showers and perhaps more generall rain and hill snow possible after next weekend.

ECM  ECM this morning is reverted back to a flatter pattern with High pressure always to the SW steering depressions crossing East to the North away from most of Britain. Winds will remain between West and North and generally light. Average temperatures will prevail with patchy night frost and fog mixed with cloudier and benign periods when a little rain in the North is possible.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles continue to paint a poor picture for thos looking for cold over the UK with the pattern of High pressure to the SW or South and Low pressure to the North of the UK maintained on the 10 Day Mean chart today.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the SW of the UK over the period with a variety of long term solutions shown none of which point to sustained and notable cold weather.

MY THOUGHTS Time is my enemy this morning so a short report from me again today but the general message is one of a revolving pattern based around a general message of high pressure to the South and SW and Low pressure to the North of the UK the general theme. With pressure quite High overall the weather will base itself as relatively dry with just brief outbreaks of rain from occasional troughs moving down from the NW at times. As each of these take place some colder air will be dragged briefly down with them accentuating the risk of frost and fog before milder and cloudier West winds return. Long term today I can only see a slow trend for the High to slowly pull back closer to it's native home of the Azores allowing slightly deeper encroachment across the UK of cold fronts from the NW at times later allowing a bigger chance of permitting some wintry showers across the NE in particular but even then I'm afraid such an event would likely be short-lived. I expect to see further slight changes in model output over the coming days, all revolving around attacks from the North in varying degrees of penetration but at this stage with the angle of Jet flow and the positioning of such pointing to be where shown only temporary phases of this remain likely taking us out towards mid December.

Good post, agree CFS and the like are purely JFF and models are chopping and changing on every run past the near time frame - take ECM, showing a northerly blast only two runs ago now gone in FI. Definitely true nothing can be ruled out longer term and does look like a quiet chilly at times HP dominated week ahead.  Also people forget last December was incredibly similar in how it started off and the unsettled theme didn't start until mid month but was HP dominated in the first couple of weeks - I would not be surprised for a month of two halves again, however hopefully this time it will be a colder second half and not a wet second half.

morning all.

The HP theme continuing this morning with some quiet and useable weather at times in the coming few days. After that there are a few options available, but to me, the HP cell slipping South is almost inevitable with perhaps a spell of zonality thereafter. 

I agree with the first part of your post however if after that there are a few options, out of curiosity, how do come to the conclusion that one of them is almost inevitable? 

Morning Doc.

Jet profiles, ECM ensembles, default pattern etc, but it's only an opinion! There are a few options like I first posted and that does have to be said. At least we will hopefully see some sunshine this coming week, though I have a feeling there will be a lot of cloud about, especially in the East.

This morning is the sunniest it has been here since last weekend. The model output does look somewhat mixed but at least it isn't suggesting a return to the still pattern we saw last week, and there should at least be a reasonable amount of bright weather in between any atlantic systems that pass through.

hope so David, it's been very foggy and grey here recently, but at least there hasn't been any frost :-)

I agree entirely Neil

Just said on FB that there will be a lot more frost and fog about in the next fortnight given the preference for High Pressure.

All else beyond that is somewhat irrelevent

Kudos to GFS again. Euros have now flattened out. I remember a similar pattern last winter. ECM constantly teased us with amplification which never came. At least it looks drier and a bit more frost possible than last winter

Yes, GFS appears to be the form horse again this year with fewer phantom "amplifications " and ghost northern blocking highs.

Ive noticed GEM and ECM both show fantasy charts far too often.  I still regard the MEt O most highly as it only goes to 6 days and thus avoids a lot of nonsense.

So, the cold snap that some of us were "blind not to be able to see" for the end of Nov hasn't materialised. Seems to be a lot of support in LRGs for a cold snap/spell at the end of December. Q had linked some very long range charts as well. Start the clock. Again....

At least by then the nights will be pulling out and we'll be on the path to spring.

The ensemble charts have been pretty consistent in recent days despite what some people have been saying on here and elsewhere. I think part of the problem is they don't show an outlook which is very easy to categorise. One thing which is clear is there is little sign of snow for most of lowland Britain.

Fair to say ECM has had to alter its output more than GFS and GFSP, though those two still had to add to make quite an adjustment to get to what the consensus now is, as there are now two separate troughs to our N and NW for Friday when originally there was just one merged feature on the GFS and GFSP runs.

So really the outcome is not as flat as GFS and GFSP were predicting, but not nearly as amplified as ECM and UKMO were predicting.

It's the sort of coming together that does usually take place, as opposed to adjustments from just one side of the argument.

The scenario of an increasingly chilly regime under high pressure remains largely intact this morning out to day 10, though GFSP pushes the HP far enough south to bring a milder day in westerly winds next Sunday. I say milder, but the wind would probably make it seem as chilly as previous days.

After that, it all gets a bit mysterious.

Signs are that the majority of the low heights will be located from Scandinavia to Svalbard and Siberia some 8-10 days from now. If a broad ridge of high pressure manages to control conditions across the U.S. during that period, the likelihood of a mid-Atlantic ridge to Greenland is greatly increased for the 10-14 day period.

Trouble is, a complication looks to arrive in the from of strong storm development in the western North Atlantic, this being as the southern arm of the jet stream - which tends to originate somewhere west of the Azores - starts to strengthen after a long period of inactivity.

If it's a fairly weak jet, as yesterday's ECM 12z op run showed and today's GFSP 00z op run shows (see chart below), a low is likely to track towards the south of the UK or NW Europe, and it may serve to prop up the mid-Atlantic ridge mentioned earlier, encouraging a longer-lived feature. Then it would depend on to what extent low heights redeveloped around Greenland.

If it's a stronger jet like today's ECM 00z op run shows, a rapid and strong transfer of energy towards Scandinavia is likely. Whether a height rise behind it becomes a ridge to Greenland would again depend on whether low heights redeveloped around Greenland. For what it's worth, the day 10 ECM 00z op chart has the Arctic High nicely placed to prevent that from happening:

At even longer range, the idea of the strat. vortex moving to Siberia has again emerged on the GFS and GFSP runs after a few days absence, and this time the motion begins in 10 or 11 days time, which is a number of days closer in range than was the case before. IF it does happen, it will help high pressure become a more persistent feature from Canada to Greenland.

I suppose anything more than transient cold before then is a matter of chance really, for example it looks like the Pacific tropical cyclone could lend a hand by amplifying the Pacific/U.S. pattern and at least pausing the transfer of disturbances from the eastern Pacific to the U.S. which would give the U.S./Canada ridge an easier time, but this depends on the models having the cyclone's behavior modeled correctly.

Yep, I think this winter will be another "next please". Roll on 2015/16

LOL

Don't be silly .

Winter starts tomorrow and the outlook seems pretty climatically normal for the UK (albeit possibly more settled than is often the case). The GFS 12z op run shows a few repeated northerly/NWly toppler scenarios and there is little sign of a repeat of last winter's nightmare or exceptionally mild conditions. In the same way there is little sign of prolonged wintry weather or exceptionally cold conditions.

Perhaps the word unexceptional would summarise the outlook nicely? Nothing special but not unwelcome either.

edit: Yesterday's BBC extended outlook (TV forecast) surprised me with a mention of the risk of wintry showers here on Friday (albeit blink and you'll miss it stuff) but looking at the UKMO output I can see where they are coming from.

Personally I'd wait until at least mid-February before saying that. 

Andy Woodcock once famously said that winter was over early one February in the face of poor model output (2005 I think it was), and no sooner had he said that than the models did a complete volte face. We can never second-guess the models, especially at this time of year.

GFS (for my area) shows a cool down from 10c to perhaps 7 or 8c later in the week.  It will at least feel more seasonal.

The weather always evens itself out, no guarantee  the spring will be pleasant

Well it is the same in May  in here if it is not hot and sunny immediately. Summer washout , Dont like the look of this , e.t.c e.t.c  No snow and severe cold in the forecast on the 30th of November. Thats it for another year