It's ok, you're just lucky Chrissie wasn't around. She's nuts 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014112912/ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

A decent end to ECM

I've sure seen worse runs; virtually every night of every week for two months solid last winter for example.

True.  Eye Candy reserved for day 10, as you say, better than last year...Nevertheless its more "jam tomorrow" from ECM. 

That's true. In saying that though, we never really got anywhere near the "jam tomorrow" stage with any of last winter's model output. Quite possibly there was the odd GFS run that showed a change of sorts in far FI, but there was never any consistency with that and it always disappeared to be replaced by more wet, windy & mild charts as the time got nearer. It was quite remarkable how every week from mid-December to mid-February had the same type of weather, hence the nickname it got as the "copy & paste" winter.

Ive just checked through the threads from last winter and they make grim reading, quite unbelievably disturbed, wet and wild, almost without let-up.

Well the models are slowly progressing nicely for an extended cold spell from mid month onwards, prior to that a nice Brucie bonus with a Northerly toppler. 

The critical model divergence remains day 4-5 with GFS, GFSP and JMA faster with the Canadian trough and so flatter with the pattern while ECM, UKMO and GEM are more amplified.

The fact that it's still exactly the same models on each side means we have a disagreement about how the physics of the atmosphere will govern the evolution of the pattern Wed-Fri next week.

So to begin with the more amplified runs, in descending order of magnitude, we have - somewhat uncharacteristically for the model - the UKMO 12z op run (left-side), more or less matched by GEM (not shown), after which comes ECM (right-side):

Transient cold is the theme with these runs. Away from the north where snow showers could be widespread for a time, it only briefly looks cold enough for overnight lowland snow, and by the relevant time, ECM and GEM have built high pressure in enough to wipe out most of any showers. UKMO is inconclusive on that matter.

Really though, I'm not expecting anything more than perhaps a few snowflakes in the wind - usually best to keep expectations low with these things, especially when model support is only half what it could be.

If we get the GFS/GFSP/JMA version of events, a few frosty nights will most likely be the extent of any white deposits from the atmosphere.

What happens beyond this period seems to be of equal or even greater trouble for the models to resolve. All of them look fairly similar for day 7 apart from GEM which is more amplified across Europe as the trough there lingers on.

The same could be said for day 8, with slight differences in the timing of a shortwave trough over the U.S. but nothing much in the grand scheme of things. This includes GEM remaining the exception, as the impacts of it bombing out the troughs again sends it off on it's own journey into a parallel reality.

This is what the consensus among operational runs therefore looks like:

From this point is where ECM, GFS and GFSP all diverge from one another.

What ECM does is transfer the trough over Canada down into the Atlantic on the western flank of the trough that is located between Iceland and Svalbard in the above chart. This then drops down into the North Sea for an interesting finish to the run, the upstream arrangement being sufficient for sustaining the mid-Atlantic ridge to Greenland for an extra day or so. The evolution looks to rely on a strong ridge in the western North Atlantic days 8-9 that is supported by a cut-off low just off the East U.S. Coast.

GFS could have followed the ECM route from day 7, but instead a low develops some way offshore from the East U.S. Coast  and races NE (it's the same system as ECM has but treated very differently), merging with the would-be-sliding-low and creating a violent system that then pushes due east. Meanwhile another strong trough develops over Canada and the pattern flattens out again until later in FI.

GFSP is just... boring. The Canadian LP drifts into Greenland and makes itself at home there. This story is repeated over and over through FI and makes for pretty much the most tedious (but probably not unpleasant at the surface) run I've seen so far this season as a Euro High maintains a strong hold over the UK throughout.

So it's a confusing picture really.

ECM represents a very fast version of what a number of experienced members on other forums seem to be anticipating as a trend through the first two weeks of December, while GFS gets there at what they may consider a more likely pace, as a tendency for the U.S. pattern to amplify feeds back to a very strong mid-Atlantic ridge for 14th December, which couples with very low heights dropping down toward the Med. to make for an interesting day 16 setup.

GFSP does show that U.S. amplification right at the end of it's run but it still has too much in the way of residual low heights around Greenland for comfort. 

I'm crossing my fingers for more amplification in the flow as I enjoy the greater variation in temperatures that can bring. As for a significant cold/snowy outbreak, any time between 21st December and 1st January would be very satisfactory indeed, even though I intend to be travelling a little way south on the 25th. That's weather fanatics for you! 

Not sure if it means anything but the CFS monther has just provided one of the most wintry situs I've ever seen for Late December onwards. Is it picking up a signal?

great post stormchaser meny thanks, your one if the elite posters here,

Last December it was showing snowmaggedon for January 2014. 

It is picking up randomness.

Was it? I remember watching the CFS extensively last year; it seemed to favour very cold air over the american continent and mild wet conditions for us. Ofc the CFS run today was a little out of step with some of the others.

Can you post the link please Quantum of the wintery suite?? It sounds great, even if it is just eye candy for now.... 

Sure. Its quite a long cold spell:

Starts in late December, by xmas continental and arctic air-masses oscillating 

Really intensifies by the start of January, frigid ENE winds:

Gives way to anticyclonic but bitterly cold conditions. Upper air temps still negative double digits.

Snow storms a week or so later, briefly milder in the extreme south.

Ends with a very cold arctic airmass sitting over the UK:

^^^^^^^^^^^

Yup , certainly some cold air for us

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014112906/run1m/cfsnh-2-870.png?06

LRF at its best

So this CFS thing isn't entirely frivolous I will point out some obs from trendwatching. The post above is extreme, and it is an outlier; that being said there is a very strong trend for blocking of some description by Late december or Early january at the latest, however the favoured pattern is high pressure close to the UK rather than to the north.

To the North can still be classed as close , don't rule it out Q

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif

A much colder feel , next weekend

I've checked the 100hpa charts to be sure, and for this 500hpa chart here:

The polar vortex is sitting almost bang on Greenland; this can't be a good thing.

The 18Z is marginally better than the 12Z by 252hr; actually its pretty amazing how they agree so closely on the big picture.

Looks like some evidence of cyclosis in the west Atlantic and some mild amplification. 

Just another run Q and so far out, wouldn't get too concerned about that , charts cant agree on 120 hours at the moment