A tad misleading. There are no wind speeds over 80mph save for a tiny area of the NW isles. The rest is pretty standard to say the least. I'd also be absolutely amazed to see any snow, transient or otherwise, to any low lying areas of Southern England in the next couple of weeks. 

i admit - im not saying we're heading into a sustained cold period with loads of snow... no.  But you have to acknowledge the increase in Pertubations going for clusters around -5*c @ 850hPa - adding into the Snow row that Brian has added and I think theres a very good chance of being amazed.  It is looking a tad dry though.

To say its all uneventful and not wintry is whats misleading.   Potential for some interesting weather across the uk over the next week.  We shouldnt discount it becuase it doesnt happen in our back garden.

Really???

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn25217.gif

Followed by 2 or 3 milder days

Then

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn34817.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.gif

Its certainly seasonal, although I don't find it that interesting at all. It's not what I would call noteworthy. All very typical of the time of year, not as dull as an endless train of Atlantic systems I'll give you that. 

On a selfish IMBY note, hopefully the changeable conditions and the brisk westerly wind may even do me a favour by shifting this dead "No Man's Land" col-like stalemate situation I'm currently experiencing right now at this end.

You'll be telling us you want the wind to die down next

Ouch. A strong blow on this run and with uppers as low as -8*C for Scotland and -6*C for England and Wales. Enough for a bit of overnight snow perhaps, most likely as showers in the polar maritime air mass. It could lead to intermittent blizzard conditions in places.

Despite the next trough in line storming straight NE with a flat jet (shame that - it takes down the developing -ve AO signal), the trough after that behaves much like the one in 8 days time, digging south and bringing another cold NW'rly flow to the UK, though veering more westerly at times and not of the magnitude of the event a week on Wednesday. Both of these troughs dig south at the same time as deep troughs form on the opposite side of the pole - a curious repeating pattern there, but with a bit of a shift west the second time around.

This is consistent with most recent GFS and GFSP runs, and again shows the gradual increase in heights over Scandinavia, even getting to Svalbard by the end of this run. This sort of thing is needed to bring a new round of attacks on the strat. vortex and steer us toward a significant warming event later in the month, but it does seem to rely on the MJO progressing to the East Pacific (phase 8 or 1), which GFS is keen on but ECM and the Met Office are not.

That is of some concern if you're hoping for a significant cold spell prior to 2015, as it's all very well having beat up strat. and trop. vortexes, but we need a trigger to be able to land the final blow. If the MJO stays in the West Pacific, we're missing the most likely form of trigger.

UKMO's got the Azores High a little further west than GFS which implies that the storm would go on to track a little further south.

Comparing it to the past two ECM op runs, it seems to lie somewhere between them except for a slightly reduced Azores High influence on day 5.

Overall, GFS, ECM and UKMO aren't all that far apart with the storm track leading up to the UK. The real divergence begins after that time, as GFS/GFSP drive most of the energy NE while ECM has been holding more back across the UK and head into Europe.

Having said that, the GFS and GFSP 12z op runs have allowed more energy to venture down to Europe, which places them lot closer to the ECM 00z op run, in fact GFSP seems to be trying to take things even further:

The low heights split quite nicely there. Had the Atlantic trough behaved more like the ECM 00z showed, an easterly would have turned up soon afterward, and a cold one too.

It's an example of how a Mediterranean trough can help us out even when the polar profile is lacking the high latitude blocking we usually look for.

Worth keeping an eye on, behind the cold NW'rly (perhaps N'rly for a time going by GFSP) that precedes it. After all, there's nothing much in the reliable range to focus on aside from the chance of a bit of high altitude snowfall at times.

I have to say, 'cooler' hardly does the GFS and GFSP day 8-10 output justice:

Okay I'll admit, that's the coldest version of event so far, but it represents today's trend toward a more amplified solution.

If ECM doesn't follow that trend that I'll concede that 'cooler' is not a bad description in terms of ambient conditions, though the wind will make it feel otherwise.

Just seen the GEM 12z op run and I don't like it; shortwave development south of Greenland flattens the flow and washes out the half-decent cold.

The GFS parallel will be unavailable due to planned supercomputer maintenance from the 12z cycle on December 3, 2014 through the 06z cycle on December 8, 2014

Looks further south?

ECM 12z op run looks as though it could deliver quite a lot of the white stuff to high ground up here! Possibly lower ground as well if cold enough.

Ooops! Thanks for pointing that out, John. Have edited my post above so it reads as intended.

ECM's in the flat-jet camp as far as the Atlantic goes, so Jacko's use of the word 'cooler' rather than colder might well be justified after all, at least for the coming 10 days or so.

There could be a silver lining though, as the storm of 9th/10th December still digs far enough south to allow the that flat jet to aim its sights at the eastern Mediterranean (the band of green on the below chart provides a rough estimation of the jet path):

This is where I was harsh on the GEM run earlier - it doesn't deliver from the northwest but it does get low heights to the eastern Med. very effectively indeed. ECM lifts a lot more of the low heights out northward from the storm of the 9th/10th, taking until day 10 to produce the right setup for a more significant push SE from the UK.

I'm not convinced that we would see the higher heights extending NW from Scandinavia for quite a while after that ECM day 10 chart though. Too much progression of the low heights from the Atlantic to Siberia.

Looking at JMA's day 8 chart, the trough behaves similar to the GFS 12z op run, but the strong mid-Atlantic ridge is absent. Probably headed somewhere between the ECM and GFS output which would be often wet and windy and without the height rises to the east. I imagine that would have some members turning back the clocks by 12 months 

great analysis again SC and all to play for with the trough position at about a week out. Not too sure if the latest output places this a little too further South though without any strong mid Atlantic ridge behind it may all be in vain. It wouldn't surprise me at all if December sadly turns out a little wetter than some envisage.

Here's the all-important MJO outlook from the models.

To summarise:

The green GEFS outlook is what we want to see for developing a pattern which can attack the strat. vortex.

The orange JMAN (to do with the JMA) outlook seems to be in line with GEFS at the end of it's run, which is encouraging.

The blue UKME (UKMO related) outlook is striking in how it really amplifies the MJO, which would bring a stronger response in the pattern outside of the tropics. I'm not sure if that increases the liklihood of it pushing on all the way to phases 8 and 1 though (E. Pacific).

The yellow ECMF outlook is the much-feared scenario in which the MJO 'recycles' in the W. Pacific, much like it did a year back.

Snow piling up for some northern and western areas, over a foot across Highland Scotland.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014120218/180-780PUK.GIF?02-18

Aye been years since we got a northerly that delivered to the northwest.