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Gooner
19 December 2014 20:49:24


I saw the BBC London local forecast at 6.30pm presented by Stingjet Stav. He's a good forecaster, but describing temperatures of 8C to 10C tomorrow as 'cold' was daft. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
19 December 2014 21:10:44

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30556460?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central


Disruption possible


Snow or Rain............that's the Q


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Essan
19 December 2014 21:13:20


I saw the BBC London local forecast at 6.30pm presented by Stingjet Stav. He's a good forecaster, but describing temperatures of 8C to 10C tomorrow as 'cold' was daft. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Not daft.  Just ignorant and very misleading.  No wonder the public have no idea or what normal weather is


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
nsrobins
19 December 2014 21:27:58


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30556460?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central


Disruption possible


Snow or Rain............that's the Q


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


A decent summary of current thinking from Sarah Lucas there (who's the Keith by the way - need to shake his hand the lucky chap )


A huge amount of uncertainty and a careful watch by all concerned on events next week.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
19 December 2014 21:48:44
Weather for the week ahead 21:55pm BBC N 24. - Will be an interesting one to watch! :-)

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
19 December 2014 21:58:40


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30556460?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central


Disruption possible


Snow or Rain............that's the Q


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Just saw weather for week ahead - it's a repeat of above, obviously pre-recorded earlier today?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
20 December 2014 09:41:49

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:


A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.


 


UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Jan 2015 to Saturday 17 Jan 2015:


The most likely scenario for the coming New Year is for a continuation of changeable, and at times windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. In between the wetter periods there should be drier, brighter, and colder spells. Temperatures are most likely to be around or slightly below average for the time of year with overnight frosts and some snow expected, particularly over the high ground.


 


Looking at the above it could certainly be a lot worse,


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
21 December 2014 17:20:35

http://t.co/WkGUQWrVYo


Have a look at these , very good


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


festivalking
21 December 2014 20:03:39
Countryfile weather no clearer about Boxing Day onwards. Seems to be they are favoring the low to head NW of the UK but offered a second solution that the low heads SE. Not a scientific calculation but the impression I got they are going 70:30 of the low heading NW.
Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
Gooner
21 December 2014 20:35:19

Countryfile weather no clearer about Boxing Day onwards. Seems to be they are favoring the low to head NW of the UK but offered a second solution that the low heads SE. Not a scientific calculation but the impression I got they are going 70:30 of the low heading NW.

Originally Posted by: festivalking 


I saw that it does look as though its a NW low


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
22 December 2014 11:17:16

BBC weather update - looks like we won't see a cold spell in January now either!? - This is becoming a deja vu of last year, but just less rain!? I mean 14.5c now - this is ridiculously unseasonably mild. Hope Matty H or someone on admin can create a "No snow Moaning thread!"


------------------------


 


Monthly Outlook


Summary


A cold Christmas, but what about New Year?

Last week, most parts of the country saw particularly varied weather, even by the UK's changeable standards! Cloudy and damp spells brought in by mild westerly winds were regularly interrupted by incursions of colder, clearer air from the northwest. As result, overnight temperatures varied from values more akin to November daytime maxima through to the more seasonal sub zero temperatures that brought some icy patches on other nights. Northern parts of the UK experienced a decent stream of snow showers at times, but all areas saw plenty of mild weather too.


As we head through Christmas week and into the New Year, we look set to continue this varied theme mild and colder spells. Read on to find some of the details...




Monday 22 December—Sunday 28 December

A Christmas chill to feed in from the north?

The festive week gets underway with a familiar scenario. A weather front will lie across Scotland and Northern Ireland, marking the boundary between colder air to its north, and milder air to its south.


In the colder regime, skies will tend to be clearer with spells of crisp sunshine by day, lighter winds and overnight frosts, but there will be the risk of some wintry showers, that will bring some snow to the hills of northern Scotland in particular.


Along the front and to its south, we can expect much cloudier conditions and some prolonged outbreaks of rain, particularly for western facing hills, with eastern areas staying largely dry. The strength of the winds along the front and to its south will also be noteworthy, with particularly blustery conditions anticipated for areas to the east of The Pennines and the far southeast of Scotland early in the week.


Gradually, through Tuesday, Wednesday (Christmas Eve), and Thursday (Christmas Day), the weather front is expected sink southwards, allowing the colder, clearer conditions to reach to all parts by Christmas Day. Most places should become cold, dry and bright by Christmas Day, with just a few snow showers for north and northeast of Scotland. There is just a slight risk at the time of writing that the weather front may slow up a little as it transits southwards across southern Scotlland and Northern England. Should this happen, we could see a more prolonged spell of rain and possibly snow for these parts during Christmas Eve, but this is a low risk scenario.


Boxing day should start off clear and cold again, but as we head into the weekend, a deep area of low pressure is expected to swing in from the Atlantic, bringing some wet and very windy weather, particularly for northwestern parts, with even the risk of a transient period of snow for some more northern parts of the UK.




Monday 29 December—Sunday 4 January

A New Year but back to square one with the weather

The low pressure system that is likely to bring some particularly unsettled weather to northwestern parts of the UK through the previous weekend is expected to clear away to the east fairly readily through the last few days of the year. So at the time of writing, there seems to be a chance that the old year could end and the New Year begin on a relatively dry, clear and potentially chilly note. That said, all the latest weather forecasting techniques and computer models suggest that any such quieter, colder interlude will once again be swiftly replaced by a milder, wetter and windier westerly regime. In effect, this mean a return to the familiar pattern of cold and mainly dry conditions, followed by mild, wet and windy conditions that we have experienced through the last several weeks.




Monday 5 January—Sunday 18 January

Still no real sign of a prolonged cold spell

All the indications are that, as we move through to the end of January, the song remains the same! We continue to monitor the atmosphere and computer models, looking for any indications of a potential change to a less mobile and changeable weather set up over the UK. So far though, any sign of a prolonged cold or milder spell has yet to appear, and for the time being, it seems we will have to contend with large changes in weather conditions on an almost day to day basis! This means that milder, windy and wet spells will likely be interrupted by colder, clearer intervals. Of course, here at the BBC Weather Centre, we will continue to monitor the situation, and will keep you informed of any changes to the longer term forecast.



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jonesy
22 December 2014 13:10:09


BBC weather update - looks like we won't see a cold spell in January now either!? - This is becoming a deja vu of last year, but just less rain!? I mean 14.5c now - this is ridiculously unseasonably mild. Hope Matty H or someone on admin can create a "No snow Moaning thread!"


.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


If that's the case Matty H will be too busy sunbathing 


I reckon you may just have to post in the winter discussion thread 


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Justin W
22 December 2014 13:15:55

That is the most positive MetO update I've seen in almost 22 months!


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gavin P
22 December 2014 13:23:29

Nice update. 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
kmoorman
22 December 2014 13:30:29


Nice update. 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 


Just need to model output to stabilise on the cold outlook for at least a couple of model updates, or else we'll see a switch again!


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Zubzero
22 December 2014 13:32:18

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30568990

sam1879
22 December 2014 16:05:26

Current flooding from stuck fronts across SW Scotland/Cumbria remind of similar floods in November 2009


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-30573411

Gooner
22 December 2014 21:57:00

J Hammond starts his forecast


" from Boxing Day onwards all sorts of fun and games "


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
22 December 2014 22:00:00

Risk of snow if the LP sinks towards the South


 


J Hammond 21:55


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Sevendust
22 December 2014 22:37:01


Risk of snow if the LP sinks towards the South


 


J Hammond 21:55


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Interesting forecast. He's fairly confident that the low will bomb thanks to the interaction between the unusually mild wedge of air coming up against the pm stuff. The north will do well as usual but that risk of the low dropping south has me a tad interested

Essan
23 December 2014 13:02:23

Btw, he-who-cannot-be-mentioned is expecting it to turn much less cold over the Christmas period and for flooding to occur as all the snow melts......


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
moomin75
23 December 2014 13:54:03


Btw, he-who-cannot-be-mentioned is expecting it to turn much less cold over the Christmas period and for flooding to occur as all the snow melts......


Originally Posted by: Essan 

I am convinced he just calls the total opposite to whatever the charts show.


Much less cold...when its about to get cold? What a plonker.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Quantum
23 December 2014 13:56:47


Btw, he-who-cannot-be-mentioned is expecting it to turn much less cold over the Christmas period and for flooding to occur as all the snow melts......


Originally Posted by: Essan 


The models will have no other choice but to change.



2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Solar Cycles
23 December 2014 16:11:16
The MEtO updates have been as poor of late which is surprising as over the last couple of years they've been pretty much on the ball.
nsrobins
23 December 2014 16:39:36

The MEtO updates have been as poor of late which is surprising as over the last couple of years they've been pretty much on the ball.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


You are joking aren't you? The MetO LRF has pretty much been the only consistently accurate forecast for the last few months.
Give me some examples of where they have been poor and I'll be happy to reconsider.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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