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kmoorman
13 January 2015 14:12:38


Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


Looking cold and wintry from the weekend



Obviously it's cold and wintry today/tonight, but I've already done an update on that with Snow Watch.


This may well be the coldest video I've done since March 2013...


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 


Very good video Gav.  I've shared it with a football forum I do forecasts on.   Very informative.


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
The Beast from the East
13 January 2015 16:07:19

12z is more progressive. High is weaker. Is this the start of yet another  pete tong


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
13 January 2015 16:08:08

GFSP12z doesn't seem to be running. That'll put the kibosh on any sites and apps who decided to switch across early. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
13 January 2015 16:10:45

UKMO so far


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011312/UW96-21.GIF?13-17


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
13 January 2015 16:13:12


12z is more progressive. High is weaker. Is this the start of yet another  pete tong


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


A tad less strong but there are still troughs disrupting over the UK


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
13 January 2015 16:14:10

A lot weaker than the 06z. We might get away with it but it shows that nothing can be taken for granted in this country. Everything has to fall into alignment for us to get a cold spell ,so more often than not we dont


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011312/gfs-0-144.png?12


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Matty H
13 January 2015 16:14:44


UKMO so far


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011312/UW96-21.GIF?13-17


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

wow 


The Beast from the East
13 January 2015 16:16:18

I think I ve seen enough of this one. Hopefully GFSP is better


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
13 January 2015 16:17:45

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011312/UN120-21.GIF?13-17


UKMO is better but our block is coming under a lot of pressure


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
13 January 2015 16:20:49

A fair chill in the Highlands!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
13 January 2015 16:23:56

UKMO at 120 looks potentially rather snowy to me? http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011312/UW120-21.GIF?13-17


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
13 January 2015 16:27:20

We are walking the tightrope with this one.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gusty
13 January 2015 16:29:46

UKMO 120-144 looks very good to me.


Mid Atlantic High is actually retrogressing with more trough disruption in already established cold air over the UK on a NW/SE axis.


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011312/UW144-21.GIF?13-17


 


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Rob K
13 January 2015 16:33:34


UKMO 120-144 looks very good to me.


Mid Atlantic High is actually retrogressing with more trough disruption in already established cold air over the UK on a NW/SE axis.


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011312/UW144-21.GIF?13-17


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Not sure the air is cold enough for the southern half of the country. Looks to be about 530dam for London at 144 hours which is surely too warm for snow in a westerly regime?



Edit: but I take the point that the high in the Atlantic is retrogressing, so a 168hr chart would probably be colder.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
13 January 2015 16:37:49


 


Not sure the air is cold enough for the southern half of the country. Looks to be about 530dam for London at 144 hours which is surely too warm for snow in a westerly regime?



Edit: but I take the point that the high in the Atlantic is retrogressing, so a 168hr chart would probably be colder.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes I make it around 530, although it's difficult to read those colours. I'd say snow is unlikely too in the south.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
13 January 2015 16:38:20


We are walking the tightrope with this one.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Really???


Id stick with the latest Met update


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Brian Gaze
13 January 2015 16:38:21


 


GFSP is much better than the oldie


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


have you got a link to the GFSP12z?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
some faraway beach
13 January 2015 16:43:00


 


Not sure the air is cold enough for the southern half of the country. Looks to be about 530dam for London at 144 hours which is surely too warm for snow in a westerly regime?



Edit: but I take the point that the high in the Atlantic is retrogressing, so a 168hr chart would probably be colder.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes. The 528 dam line is over the Midlands. But the same chart on the hemispherical view looks much more dramatic going forward:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=144&nh=1&archive=0


I like that acute straight line all the way from Greenland to Spain.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Rob K
13 January 2015 16:44:59


 


Yes. The 528 dam line is over the Midlands. But the same chart on the hemispherical view looks much more dramatic going forward:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=144&nh=1&archive=0


I like that acute straight line all the way from Greenland to Spain.


Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Hmm, animating between the 120 and 144 hr charts on that view it does rather look as if the Azores high is about to topple across us.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin P
13 January 2015 16:45:39


 


 


Very good video Gav.  I've shared it with a football forum I do forecasts on.   Very informative.


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Thanks!


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
some faraway beach
13 January 2015 16:58:34



Hmm, animating between the 120 and 144 hr charts on that view it does rather look as if the Azores high is about to topple across us.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Really? I thought it was pulling northwards. Maybe you're right and it's going to pivot eastwards over us. but that wasn't my first thought.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Stormchaser
13 January 2015 17:04:52

Hmmn I see UKMO has the main trough a little further south on Saturday compared to GFS... I guess that explains how the BBC forecast could feature widespread snow and GFS hardly anything.


As for next week, we see GFS very reluctant to split energy in the vicinity of Greenland and send some SE. The result for us is a bizzare soup of very weak disturbances, inadequate for supporting high pressure to our N/NE.


UKMO is not nearly as reluctant - see how the one trough on day 6 becomes two on day 6, one riding up the west coast of Greenland, the other sliding nicely SE to the UK:


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions   Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


 


Historically, GFS is useless at splitting energy in this way. Well, that's what the likes of Steve Murr will tell you, and from past experience I'm inclined to agree that it does struggle with it.


GFSP had been making a better effort but appears to have gone AWOL for the 12z run. Just waiting for it to turn out that what we're seeing as 'GFS', with it's severe lack of a splitting trough, is in fact GFSP in disguise 


 


How likely is it to actually split, you may be wondering... well, you need a split in the jet first, and that shows up on all output by day 4 (over far northwestern N. Atlantic), but there are differences in the balance between how strong the right arm of the jet heading across the Atlantic is when compared with the left arm which heads due north toward the west coast of Greenland.


The GFS run has more going north, leaving the Atlantic jet weak - that's why the ridge there is stronger and lasts longer than on the UKMO or GEM 12z op runs.


The GEM run, which is more like UKMO than GFS, though more vigorous with the Atlantic troughs, has the majority of the jet energy heading east across the Atlantic. The results on the GEM run are rather dramatic with a deep trough over S'rn UK - probably very snowy (if viewing, account for the fact that the model modifies maritime-track air masses far too quickly, causing them to be projected as less cold than would actually be the case).


 


There is room for debate over how decent UKMO is for snow on day 6, but with quite a weak flow and an established cold pool across the UK, I reckon the low-level cold would be sufficient for either snow or freezing rain in the south. Looking further north it's a snowy picture with little evidence of pronounced warm sectors to worry about.


Going forward, something loosely along the lines of days 6-7 of the GEM 12z looks possible, though I doubt it would be that extreme in terms of the high pressure to our NW.


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kmoorman
13 January 2015 17:10:44
Is anyone else not seeing a 12Z GFSP run tonight?
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
White Meadows
13 January 2015 17:12:40
12z goes flat as a pancake after the weekend. "Boo, hiss!…."
kmoorman
13 January 2015 17:20:06

12z goes flat as a pancake after the weekend. "Boo, hiss!…."

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


 


Do you mean the Op run only?  There are still plenty of ensemble members that show decent setups next week


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

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