Yes, people calling then end of the spell before it has started. ENS are the way forward, they were where it was first seen and that is where the end will be first seen, as as I don't go with the GFS ENS, I am with Darren and the ECM ENS.
No end in sight on the ECM ENS. Not terribly cold, but cold none the less.

I have feeling this is a first bite of the cherry anyway.

Looking at the short term (Friday into Saturday) - Parts of the NW & N England could see some snow distruption.

Looking quite decent for the hills too.

Top post - and the best way of looking at it.

I think we've all experienced the gutting disappointment of seeing a good cold & snowy spell showing on the NWP, then downgrading. Similarly, we've all seen a cold spell develop, but our own little patch miss out on the snowy fun & games (whether through getting rain or it being dry)

By splitting how this is likely to pan out into the different meteorological 'acts', it's useful to assess how likely one is to partake for each stage.

I'm hoping to benefit from the first two, then look for a bit of a freeze to preserve the snow cover. I do hope, however, that as many people as possible throughout the country get to see good falls of snow

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

LOL at the Control. looks cold but dry later on in the period

It's best to ignore 'pessimists' and 'optimists' because by implication they are more likely to see the outcome they want. Remaining objective is one of the most difficult tasks. More so than reading the numerical output.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015011506/51-574.GIF?15-6

Chance of some snow saturday am. Perhaps my long wait will come to an end

Rain / snow extent into Tuesday morning probably close to the MetO / IanF tweet earlier:

Yeh this is what I thought, I'm not sure exactly what I said wrong.

I'd be happy to be corrected guys, I'm just confused as to my mistake. Obviously lake effect is notorious in the US because of the colder air which can produce far greater accumulations. That being said there was a thames streamer in 2010 that was a very US style lake effect band, courtesy of very cold air imported from the continent. I think it dropped over a foot of snow which is standard in the lakes. 

Interestingly it was the control that first went with this cold spell.

2 clusters that I can see, and majority remain cold.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011506/gfsnh-1-186.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011506/gfsnh-0-186.png?6

We cant complain about this , no doubt some will

Think back 12 months

Despite the super -5 uppers it looks all to be snow at ~132 because temps are subzero, in the UK its rare for subzero temps to give rain, and usually only happens ahead of warm fronts. 

GFS 06z fi just looks very cold and frosty with the odd flurry down the east coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

Right out to day 10

That chart MUST be wrong, surely??!

;-)

It was for earlier this week, so yeah, good chance

Nice looking fax for Sunday

The charts are so much better to look at than last year, but as you have intimated, it's extremely marginal for many.

In my view (and it's just an educated guess more than anything), next week will be seasonal for most, but away from favoured areas north of the midlands, there will be very little in the way of wintry precipitation.

However, with my CET "guess" for January being the lowest of the lot, and the fact I mentioned that I felt the middle of January would be much colder than average, I'm not too disappointed at what is being modelled.

I guess as has been said many times, get the cold in, which tends to prove stubborn to shift, and then worry about the semantics of what may happen next.

Edited for you.

Your honesty is admired

But there has already been snow in the south. A snow covering near Salisbury

A bit cold over Scotland during the day!? Perhaps that's just over the snow covered hills and mountains!? - A long way off BUT

GFS has Scotland under cloudless high pressure and deep snow cover at that point, so I would suggest -15C is quite feasible in highland valleys, as the cold air sinks. After all, much colder temperatures have occurred in those locations under similar conditions.

I follow him (Ian F) but can't seem to find the tweet?

Yes, a fax chart to gladden the old ticker. How often do we see an Icelandic HP cell in January? Not a lot, as PD would say.

The extended 0z ECM ensembles for London are now available - yesterday's 12z at top, 0z at the bottom.

The only noteably change is in the far reaches of FI, where rather more members than yesterday are in the milder cluster. As a result the mean is dragged upwards a bit.