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White Meadows
16 January 2015 09:56:39
Looking at the ensembles this morning it appears we may be getting the first taste of something much colder at month end, into February.
The control hints at this with clusters dipping lower by 28th.
The Beast from the East
16 January 2015 10:01:04

trough not dropping down as quick. Not sure what the consequences will be if any


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011606/gfsnh-0-84.png?6

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
jessica davies
16 January 2015 10:03:00
Hi really sorry but could someone tell me when the next gfs run will be coming out in so sorry to bother you all ....
Jessica
Russwirral
16 January 2015 10:04:28
A quick flick through the charts this morning - and there seems to be a continuation of a theme of "not as severe" that was present last night and yesterday. Each run now the cold air seems to be dissipating. Add into the mix that the GFS now places us in the mild(er) sector of the slider



I really feel these coming few days will be an event for hillier areas, and cold rain and ice events for low lying areas (the majority of us). Scotland will continue their snowfest of a season.

I feel some places will be raw next week, but the atmosphere not primed enough for snow.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
The Beast from the East
16 January 2015 10:04:33

Its coming out now Jessica


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015011606/48-574.GIF?16-6


A bit of snow Sunday morning perhaps for me


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
16 January 2015 10:06:31

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011606/gfs-1-102.png?6


Cold enough but the ppn may not even make it to the east!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Russwirral
16 January 2015 10:06:34

Hi really sorry but could someone tell me when the next gfs run will be coming out in so sorry to bother you all ....
Jessica

Originally Posted by: jessica davies 


 


They begin at 3.30 9.30, 15.30, and 21.30


 


(9.30 and 3.30 each day)


 


They run for approx 1.5 hrs


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
The Beast from the East
16 January 2015 10:10:23

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011606/gfsnh-0-114.png?6


Stronger Scandi block. Battleground UK


Reminds me a bit of Feb 1996. The fronts never made it to London

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Solar Cycles
16 January 2015 10:11:16


Its coming out now Jessica


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015011606/48-574.GIF?16-6


A bit of snow Sunday morning perhaps for me


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

You best get them toys back inside before they get buried under the snow.

Sevendust
16 January 2015 10:11:16


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011606/gfs-1-102.png?6


Cold enough but the ppn may not even make it to the east!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Nice uppers

jessica davies
16 January 2015 10:14:24
Thankyou everyone and sorry to jam up the thread ... X
Jessie
beanoir
16 January 2015 10:15:00


This is impossible at this range to predict and we need to see how the models firm up on this positioning in the coming days.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


 


Thanks Gibby, this is THE quote by which many others here in the last 48hrs should listen too.  I'm glad of your commentary this morning, it helps cut through the rest of the dross. 


What surprise me is how many 'regulars' here still get so emotional about a synoptic that is so well known for being difficult to predict what it may deliver and where at this far out.  


I'm quite enjoying the back/forth of the positioning in the models this morning, it could quite easily change a number of times over in the next few days...pass me the popcorn.


 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Solar Cycles
16 January 2015 10:15:59

A quick flick through the charts this morning - and there seems to be a continuation of a theme of "not as severe" that was present last night and yesterday. Each run now the cold air seems to be dissipating. Add into the mix that the GFS now places us in the mild(er) sector of the slider



I really feel these coming few days will be an event for hillier areas, and cold rain and ice events for low lying areas (the majority of us). Scotland will continue their snowfest of a season.

I feel some places will be raw next week, but the atmosphere not primed enough for snow.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

It's looking like the NW will be under the mild sector as it stands, a bit like February 2012 ( I think it was then ) when unfortunately we missed out on the good stuff due to the dreaded mild sector. Still lots of time for more upgrades, downgrades and all things in-between and I still think many from the Midlands Northwards will see snow at some point during the next 7-10 days and with many getting a decent covering.

Saint Snow
16 January 2015 10:17:47

A quick flick through the charts this morning - and there seems to be a continuation of a theme of "not as severe" that was present last night and yesterday. Each run now the cold air seems to be dissipating. Add into the mix that the GFS now places us in the mild(er) sector of the slider



I really feel these coming few days will be an event for hillier areas, and cold rain and ice events for low lying areas (the majority of us). Scotland will continue their snowfest of a season.

I feel some places will be raw next week, but the atmosphere not primed enough for snow.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Tending to agree with you, Russ. Hope I'm wrong, but have been left with our region holding the sh*tty end of the stick in these fairly marginal situations before


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
16 January 2015 10:19:18

We are in a col.


Cold and cloudy with perhaps some snizzle


Yawn!

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
warrenb
16 January 2015 10:23:33
I am not saying this coming week, but give it 10 days and look east is what the charts are starting to tell me.
Tonbridge 45m 
Gooner
16 January 2015 10:26:39


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011606/gfsnh-0-114.png?6


Stronger Scandi block. Battleground UK


Reminds me a bit of Feb 1996. The fronts never made it to London


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


And that is about as far as anyone need look, will change again on the 12z , the 6z might be a cold outlier or even on the mild side.................who knows ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
16 January 2015 10:27:20

The 06Z GFS looks ultra progressive compared to the 00Z with >0C uppers sweeping through by Thursday and the "Scandi" high retreating to Kazakhstan. Hoping the ECM is closer to the truth in 10 days' time!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
16 January 2015 10:29:03
Looking at the ensembles this morning it appears we may be getting the first taste of something much colder at month end, into February.
The control hints at this with clusters dipping lower by 28th.
soperman
16 January 2015 10:29:56


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011606/gfsnh-0-114.png?6


Stronger Scandi block. Battleground UK


Reminds me a bit of Feb 1996. The fronts never made it to London


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


V. similar to UKMO at 120. The spinner off Canada also looks a little deeper.


 


Under the old GFS the 6z was considered less reliable as it contained fewer algorithms.  Is this the same for the new GFS?


 


Let's hope watching turns from the models to the lamp posts over the next week

Rob K
16 January 2015 10:33:29
Not sure what run people are looking at talking about a stronger Scandi block, because it certainly isn't the 06Z GFS I'm looking at!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
16 January 2015 10:36:40


Under the old GFS the 6z was considered less reliable as it contained fewer algorithms.  Is this the same for the new GFS?


Originally Posted by: soperman 


A new spin on an old question.  The GFS runs all use the same physics and algorithms. Some of the data inputs vary, but statistically there isn't a great deal of difference between the runs. Also bear in mind the current 6z is 6 hours newer than the 0z so if for example you looked at 120 on the 0z, you could compare that with 114 on the 6z. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
16 January 2015 10:36:45
Agree Rob. Can't see a strong Scandi block on the 6z.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
warrenb
16 January 2015 10:37:04
Well if you look at it within the 144 time frame it is slowly stronger, bu not much. If you just look at the FI charts (Post 144) then that is up to individuals.
Tonbridge 45m 
Maunder Minimum
16 January 2015 10:39:18

Agree Rob. Can't see a strong Scandi block on the 6z.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes - the cold spell will be over by Wed or Thu - everything flattened out and horrible - the writing is on the wall for the duration of this cold spell at least.

New world order coming.

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