Why cant people just wait and see what happens. There's nearly always one setup like this every winter, there just about always marginal events, the milder ones win out more than the cold ones do I would suggest. I like snow and wish it would snow more often during winter. Even if the mild air wins out sometime next week, I know I have a good chance of seeing some significant snowfall (due to my location) when the front moves in, yes its not perfect, but I'll take it.

Cue heavy snow shower that has just given a nice covering

The precip postage stamps for Sunday show why the Met have warnings out for the south east, but a range of outcome still look possible:

Lots of precipitation for the Channel Islands according to that Brian - but is it likely to be just cold rain 

Certainly a slight downgrade with the duration of the cold spell. Nothing to be too worried about though as surprises can often pop up in these situations and as we know cold air is hard to shift, but we are not looking at a January 2010 or December 2010 big freeze. Far from it. I do think some members have unrealistically high expectations but that's understandable after a number of cold & snowy Winters since 2009. But this is definitely the coldest spell coming up since March 2013. 

If its marginal for the mainland its almost certainly rain/hail down here.

I don't really want to clog up this thread with huge images, but the snow stamps available on the Chart viewer suggest rain for the CI. In the south  / south east about 6 show significant snow with the others mostly rain or light precip.

Select GEFS, then under Postage Stamps, Snow:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

I was just looking at that on the euro4

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/16/basis06/nlnl/prty/15011806_1606.gif

Do they just run that once or is there an ENS available? 

[quote=moomin75;663072]

I have been around this forum for many years, and try to command a bit of respect with my posts where possible.

Appreciate I am a very pessimistic person, but this is borne out of realism rather than depression at what models show.

However, I base my comments on what is the "norm" in this country. That is, once models start picking up on milder trends, they tend to take the baton and run with it.

The same can rarely be said if it's the other way around. Cold spells tend to get downgraded. Not every time, granted, but how many times over the last 7-8 years have we been here, seen stella cold runs, steadily downgraded to a bog standard cooler than average winter snap.]

 moomin ,I've been watching the winter  weather for over 50 years and i think your summary here is pretty accurate.It's more a case of being cautious rather than pessimistic!

Fergie update on NW.. I thought as others seem to stalk him I may join in lol.

Posted A minute ago

Reading the latest update ( media thread ) cold or very cold isn't the norm

Out to 6h and no change whatsoever

"we need to stand up and take it like men"

LOL. It's the model output for the weather guys!!! Lets all chill.

Hopefully upgrades, if not we shall all survive and live to tell the tale.

GFS12Z out to +72. Focussing on the slider energy, if anything the parent low looks a tad more progressive but roughly the same latitude and is now starting it's decay. The chances of snow on Tues now hinge on the fine detail of how the energy slides SE and engages with the cold pool over the UK (and it is cold - -8 uppers and close to freezing surface after a few very frosty nights in a col)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-90.png?12

LP to the NW looks a lot stronger on the 12z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

much deeper on this run