Didn't see Carol Kirkwood this morning, although she normally shows quite good uppers.

The MetO update this afternoon should be interesting because we'll get an insight into the latest MOGREPS and ECM ENS. I've had a quick skip through the individual GEFS6z perturbations for the second half of next week and I think they are easing off on the cold spell through that period.

Ssshhh! You're not allowed to say that!

Doesn't she just

A changing, marginal set-up requires a bit of common sense which hinges on not taking anything at face vale - and that includes broadcast graphics, 'expert' charts, ppn rates and type and, above all, one OP run against another.
A case in mind is Sunday's 'event' is only 24 hours old from first appearing and has now already been dissected, hyped, dissolved and discounted in equal measure.
Yes at present some SE areas are at risk of sleet/snow but that could change again and the same goes for Tues/Weds when we could all see something or the slider could retire away to the SW without impacting us at all. Frustrating yes I totally understand, but personally I won't get too bothered one way or the other.

You don't follow Gooner's 'Wonderful Weatheronline Weather Type Maps' then?

Seriously, several GFS runs early/mid this week showed periods of heavy snow, along with some stunning 'Snow Accumulation' maps for the areas I've mentioned, for this weekend.

Now they don't, and by doing so have come into line with other models that never showed such a snowfest.

I'd re-post a selection, but I can't be arsed.

That really has turned into a Monster HP over the atlantic.  Had we not been heading into a cold spell, all eyes would be on where that would be heading.

Wouldnt be surprised if that HP comes into play at some point down the line.

I'm going to have that tune running around my head now, everytime I look at the models!!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011606/gensnh-13-0-384.png

J F F of course

Look at the cold across the water

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=carol+kirkwood&FORM=HDRSC2#view=detail&id=3E88211653D19AA295CA499F1A306B5F4FF37689&selectedIndex=6

The above would suggest a SSW event

Meanwhile I concur with Neil's comments

Examining the minute detail of each run doesn't achieve a great deal as output beyond a couple of days may give you an overall feel of what may be coming but not critical detail.....which in this situation can mean a fine line between snow,  marginal slop or rain.

Sunday is a case in point and I doubt if we'll have any clue until it actually starts 

….Cue the comments about explosive cyclogenesis, turbo-jet streams and a zonal February & March 

It is of course possible to have the cold on both sides ( see Gavs video )

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

JMA Friday + Latest On Next Week's Snow Risk;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

I think tomorrow's week ahead forecast is going to be a massive headache.

Yes, most back up the op and control. I know its not what we want to hear but the writing is on the wall and we have to stand up and take it like men. This is looking like a 5-7 cold snap and then back to normal

looks to me that it stays cold for the forseeable. the ec32 mean was notable for not inroducing euro high anomolys to our south. 

i think the envelope stays with the disrupting troughs but whether thats to our west, east or across us ????

could be a long month coming up on the forums !!!

Latest Met Office forecast has it staying cold or very cold to after next weekend 10 days at least. 

Can we keep posts in here on topic and of a sensible nature please. If anyone is going to make predictions on how long the cold spell is going to last, please provide some reference to the model output rather than making sweeping statements that have little or no evidence to back them up.

Thank you.