After all this chopping and changing in the models over the past few days. It is more likely this evening that most will see a few frosty night's

before it is back to the norm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011712/EDM1-192.GIF?17-0 

Just for fun: - I am becoming like Marcus now! - Models still shows that despite the break down there is some very cold air around , looks like the models are looking more wintry than the forecasts tonight when last night it was vic-versa. Next Saturday nights temps:

What stands out to me there is the lack of cold in western Europe, even if we did tap in to an easterly any cold air is 100's/1000's of miles away 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011718/gfs-9-168.png?18

That's true - even most of Poland is above freezing too. - So awaiting another flip in tomorrows runs I guess?

GEFS 18h shows Scandi Influence hanging on.

126h 60% of ENS

168h 35%

180h 45%

206h 45%

240H UK HP 25%,Scandi HP25%

Cold weather even Wednesday night. But let's seen how much this will change tomorrow in the up coming runs!?

Some of those UK HP scenarios look very cold at the surface - the westerlies may not be making a swift return by any means.

It seems that the models are really inconsistent with the pace and intensity of a second low leaving the U.S. in about 5 days time, with these details critical for determining whether the arm of the Atlantic jet diving SE through the UK on its way to the Med. is shut down or not.

If it manages to hang on, then LP over the Med. can hang on and maintain a better easterly flow to combat the push from the west. This is how we could end up with either a UK high or a continuation of the Scandi High for about a week's time.

It's not the only route there though - if the Atlantic low days 5-6 was to drive decent warm air advection due north or even west of north, the Scandi High would get a real boost that could also serve to keep it in play - though a weak Euro low would be an issue unless we saw the best of both worlds, where the jet maintains a split - so some energy heading under the block - and the Atlantic low drives WAA to the N or NW. Now that would feel a bit like winning a sports car in a raffle entered by thousands!

Neither of these options were offered by the ECM 12z out to day 8, which is a shame. In an attempt to compensate, day 10 then started to drive energy back SE, which at least reflects the idea of westerly momentum being removed from the atmosphere again - the whole GLAAM thing I dared to mention earlier... you'd be amazed how influential that can be. I intend to explain in the least technical way I can one day soon, once I'm satisfied with what I've been trying to put together these past few weeks.

So... all bets are off as far as later next week is concerned. We don't even have much of a clue about what will transpire in three days time! Surely this hapless flailing of the models will come to an end sooner or later.

GFS has me under a 'rain/snow' area with decent precipitation rates for 6am tomorrow. In other words, it hasn't got a clue what will fall. That's assuming anything much falls at all, as Euro4 has hardly anything. The WRF-NMM 2km model has a rain shower at 6am followed by a snow shower just to my west at 9am... obviously not to be taken as gospel.

Technology advances but still we play the 'will it/wont it game' right up until the last minute. Wouldn't be the same without it 

Interesting analysis ....very informative!...We will see, but there is so much uncertainty in the weather pattern and forecasters even with just forecasting a day ahead. For instance tomorrow was due to be wet with patchy rain sleet or snow and now it's dry but having see the latest forecast by Alex Deakin shows N. Devon being battered by showers tomorrow and showers being driven off the Irish sea, past the Cardigan bayhitting western Wales and then being driven across the Bristol channel and clipping north Devon and Somerset coast, must be thanks to the northerly. - Maybe some may spread inland!?

Sunday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015011712/nmm_uk1-1-14-1.png?17-17

Nicked this link from above but to highlight a slightly different (IMBY) point.  There's a hint there of showers making progress through 'the Cheshire gap' in to the north west Midlands.  Certainly the potential for a light covering over the hills of Staffordshire I'd have though, and perhaps a shower or two creeping in to my neck of the woods too.

Tuesday

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_69_preciptype.png?cb=151

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVK89.jpg?cb=409

Looks like snow restricted for the high ground of north Midlands counties such as Staffordshire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire and high ground of Wales and of course north of that.  Rain looks likely now for most of the Midlands southwards - Roughly reflected on the fax for Tuesday which shows the 528 line getting a nudge by the first 'main' front of the week.

Wednesday

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_90_preciptype.png?cb=151

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVM89.jpg?cb=190

On the plus side there's snow more widely on offer Wednesday - again the fax backs it up with the 528 line heading south again.

Friday

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVO89.jpg?cb=151

And there might be something to interest the south east contingent on Friday?

Eventually...maybe...probably not!! 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_384_preciptype.png?cb=151

Ignoring all the rain that comes before it, if we head out to the far reaches we could have rain turning increasingly to snow.

Gut instinct would suggest that somewhere north rather than east of the UK is likely our best bet this winter.  This is by no means a 'winter is over' comment but time will quickly start to run out for a ) a pool of deep cold on the near mainland to develop and b ) for the UK to tap in to it.  If the Atlantic has a generally quieter spell in the second half of winter there could be further opportunities for similar colder spells of weather to that we're just in to now.  That, at least, makes for an interesting few weeks to come.

I'm deeply offended. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=326&y=157

Well just looked at the ensemble for MBY and there is better agreement (than a few runs ago), for cold to hang on until around the 25th before any change. Then in FI the operational and control both go cold again, down to -10c 850s and have some support. 

UKMO still punches through Saturday; ECM a sort of second disruption and has eased off the full return of the Atlantic; GFS OP is interesting

Quite a few ENS, including the control, have the Scandy ridge link scenario in play this morning.
If there was deeper cold on the near continent, there would be some snow possibilities week 2.

As it is, looking at this week only and we slip and slide away into the unknown with the rain or snow mix, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the whole lot shifted west again and most miss out.

0z ECM ensembles for Reading (on the right) - good agreement of cold persisting into the weekend, but beyond that there's a large scatter of options:

Yes, there is a clear trend for the block to hold and the cold to edge west.

O/T

Last night N MIller did say the cold would last until next weekend and it would only be into the following week when the Atlantic broke through. Of course that comment was based on yesterdays runs

Marginally messy output this morning again, however, the picture for this week is becoming clearer with disrupting troughs moving SE'wards across the country on Tuesday and Wednesday with a heady mix of rain, sleet and snow (dependent on altitiude, surface flows etc etc). Wednesday night into Thursday would appear to be the time when even parts of the snow starved south get a crack at a snow opportunity as the Wednesday disruption migrates into France pulling in a drier continental feed for a time.

The trend in recent runs has been to delay the onset of the atlantic in the longer term and I note with interest that the ECM 0z operational and a number of GEFS suite bring in another disruptive NW/SE aligned trough next Saturday. This is way into FI but with a Scandinavian High seemingly waiting to pounce the chances of cold extending into week 2 are high.

Getting deep cold uppers should this occur will be the next challenge. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY JANUARY 18TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE MONDAY JANUARY 19TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack and cold Northerly airflow lies across the UK today. A frontal trough will clear the SE this morning and a showery trough over the North will dissipate as it moves South.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and unsettled with rain or snow in places. Frost at times.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow rather weaker than o flate though sufficiently strong to maintain a generally Atlantic driven pattern of cold zonality with the positioning of the flow remaining South of he UK and troughed down over Europe towards the Meditteranean.

GFS NEW OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today maintains a generally rather cold and unsettled picture across the UK. The first week is dictated by disrupting Low pressure troughs as they slide SE across the UK in cold air. All areas will have a mix of rain and snow events through the week punctuated by wintry showers and some frosts at night. The deveil remains in the detail again though and this morning's run has continued this rather cold theme through week 2 as further Atlantic Low pressure becomes blocked near the UK by the cold pool still lying close to the UK, especially the South with further sleet and snow risks at times almost out to the end of the run.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run also shows this extension to the cold and in places wintry theme with disrupting Low pressure continuing to be forced SE through the second week too as the cold pool over and near the UK lies in situ with no real push of Atlantic Westerlies until the very last few frames of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters continue to project the most likely scenario remaining in this cold and slider territory for the next 10 days or so with 40% of clusters still showing at least cold zonality under Low pressure still dominant in two weeks time.

UKMO UKMO this morning also shows slider Lows moving SE from the NW but has their axis somewhat further East to those from GFS bringing their bands of rain and snow East before clearing them to scattered wintry showers in a NW flow later in the week.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate a complex pattern developing over the UK through the week as elongated troughs lie NW to SE down the spine of the UK and the North Sea. Lying in cold air they will bring snow or rain at times clearing to wintry showers in a chilly NW flow in the West at least later.

GEM GEM today shows generally rather cold and unsettled conditions through the next 10 days with winds predominating from a NW point. Low pressure troughs slide SE throughout this week with a mix of rain and snow followed by wintry showers seeming most likely with further opportunities for more sliding troughs through the latter part of the run most likely slightly further East later keeping rain and sleet bearing spells short ahead of rather chilly and wintry showery NW wind spells following.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows rather cold and unsettled conditions through the week with troughs and Low pressure slipping SE through the middle of this week before a more definitive Low pressure sits on top of the UK next weekend with rain or wintry showers at times in chilly and blustery west or NW winds.

ECM ECM this morning too maintains a rather cold outlook with the weather powered by successive pushes of Low pressure down over or just to the East of the UK, each bringing their own version of unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow in strong and blustery winds from the NW at times. At the end of the run it looks like a push of milder Atlantic Westerly winds take hold with temperatures recovering to average for most.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a very similar image to the ones of recent days, made up of options of cold zonality under NW winds and a trough over Europe. There are also a few milder options on the plate to complete an unclear progression of where we may be synoptically in 10 days time.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main differences indicated from this morning's output is an extension of the rather cold period with a longer run of disrupting Low pressure near or down over the UK, possibly extending into the second week.

MY THOUGHTS The most interesting part of this morning's output is the extension to the cold period that most of the output shows this morning. nearly all models show several slider type scenarios crossing down or just to the East of the UK, each bringing their own brand of spells of rain, sleet and snow followed by wintry showers. Ideally the axis remains too far East for Southern and Western Britain to see much more than transient sleet and snow from these disrupting features as they weaken and pull SE but Eastern and Northern areas could see some significant snowfall at times. In the wake of the troughs NW winds would bring wintry showers and frosts at night look very likely under the clearer periods through this week. We then come to where we go from the end of this week on and the jury still remains very firmly out on what happens synoptically then as it all depends on the axis position and method that the Low pressure areas exit Britain to the SE and the legacy of cold air that remains. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some output beginning to lean towads a more coherent pressure rise to the NE in the coming days and if that occurs that would of course enhance the risk of much of the UK remaining cold through the second week too or of course we have to cater for a push of milder Atlantic winds eventually pushing the cold air further away to the East, something that is again hinted at this morning in some output. However, while Low pressure is maintained near the Meditteranean Sea then the chances of coldish weather for the UK remains likely as Atlantic Low pressure to the NW of the UK will continue to be sucked down towards it giving rise to at least cold zonality conditions with wintry surprises for many continuing at times. Fnally the one constant in this morning's output is the continued absence of the word 'mild' within the projections and this is in itself a step towards a more seasonal feel to things this January compared to last.

Morning.  That sums the situation up really.  The lack of deep cold even if the synoptics play ball with disruption and undercutting of a block takes place, there is still a long way to go.  Nevertheless, its going to be a messy old week with sleet being the watchword.  Preferable to southerly gales and incessant soakings any day

Yes that's the primary issue. Getting things aligned in these disruptive set-ups is one thing, but for higher chances you need a source of sub zero dps and ideally sub -6 or so uppers to drag into the equation. There has unfortunately been no decent push of arctic air into W Europe to date (some from the mid-week low but not a lot) so although air of sufficient quality is pulled into the UK it's all a bit marginal.
We do have our own cold-pool generating system and with mainly clear skies and a light N drift tonight and tomorrow night we'll develop lower dps and 2mTs ourselves which is what the disruptive trough slides in to later Tuesday so maybe.
Also one has to factor in the trough itself and how it behaves - the way things have been lately it might not affect many areas at all!

In summary it's marginal and potentially frustrating but fascinating all in good measure.

12pm run of temps MBY from the 0z

3c 2c 5c 4c 2c 2c 2c 2c 3c 2c

Certainly chillier than the 18z , the cold desperately hanging on

Monday evening sees a front from the West ^^^^^^^

Snow on the leading edge on Tuesday morning ^^^^^^

12pm snow for the North ^^^^^^

Wednesday morning next front moves in a wintry mix all the way to the SW ^^^^^^

12 pm on Wednesday , distribution of snow further South than on Tuesday ^^^^

The wintry band pushes away Eastwards^^^^^

Thursday morning sees snow falling across much of England^^^^^

This will no doubt change again but shows the type of situation we are in...............not clear cut by a long way

And of course these are J F F

a little something from fergie over NW   [   UKMO-GM has been modified to slow Fri frontal advance by 9-12 hrs.  ]