It is depressing, but tbh I'm not inclined to put any more faith in it than when they spoke of a more general improvement during August as they had done over the past couple of weeks up to and including yesterday. Seems to me that there is no clear and consistent signal for further ahead at the moment.

FWIW, my feeling is that if there is to be any settled spell over most of the UK between now and the end of August, it could appear in the models at relatively short notice and may not be seen a long time in advance. That is how settled spells in the past have sometimes started, and on occasion the models that we have access to have hinted at a settled spell developing a few days before mention has been made of it in the MetO outlook for the first time. That, if I recall rightly, is what happened before the start of the two-week hot spell in July 2013.

One advantage of our normal summer, as opposed to the abnormal weather in much of Europe, is that half the country is not currently on fire


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3176452/Up-10-000-holidaymakers-evacuated-French-campsites-huge-wildfire-British-tourists-flee-panic-15ft-flames-tear-forests-destroy-caravans.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3176404/Wildfires-rage-Spain-forest-firefighters-indefinite-strike-row-working-conditions-pay.html

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/wildfires-threaten-villages-across-balkans-190448770.html

That is one way of looking at it. The other is to think about the situation some parts of the UK were in at times in June & July 2007 and at various times throughout the woeful summer of 2012. Then it wasn't fires that were the problem, it was flooding.

One thing I will say is that I personally much prefer what I call moderate weather; not too hot or too cold, and not too wet or too dry. At the moment, as I tips it down yet again outside, it reminds me very much of what we had week after week in 2012.

We live in hope!

Windiest year in two decades?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11766178/Will-2015-be-Britains-windiest-year-in-two-decades.html

From the Meto: the number of calm days this year has totalled 8 (see link for definition) and if the total is below 22 at the end of the year, it will be the windiest year for 20 years. Unusually there have been no calm days in May, June or July, and the autumn, usually a windy period, is not far off now.

They also show 37C on 1st of July but won't be remembered for poor quality hot spell, cloud cover ruined it and too quick.

Should had been around 22 Sun Spells, 25 Sunny periods , 28 very few clouds, 31, 32, 35, 37 all sunny, 32 sunny start then storms come up giving us a light shows, 27, overcast start then clearing away to sunny spells, 24 sunny spells and breezy.  Not 20-25 cloudy, jump to 31C with sunny spells to cloudy spells, 37C with lot of clouds then drop back below 30C next day with mostly missing out storms but get cloudy. 

They were 0.3C out! Shocking!

Meteo France have included the EUROSIP probabilities for T2m in their seasonal outlook.

The cold SST anomaly prevails as either a cooling or in-determining factor.

well at least the southern part of the uk roughly M4 south have a 40-50% chance of being above average.

Anyone else found there Meto text forecasts to be absolute garbage over the last few weeks? They're normally pretty decent, but they've been dreadful on the whole here lately. Take yesterday - the day panned out nothing like the forecast at all. Today is for a day of sunny spells and 25c. Not a prayer. It's blowing a gale and overcast, albeit bright. 

Sunny and warm here just an hour or so up the M4. Trying to give an accurate picture for everyone in a text forecast is a mug's game. As is bothering to give any kind of forecast at all for the second two weeks of August on Aug 2. I don't know why they bother. 

FWIW, if the GFS op runs at the moment are vindicated, the MetO may have to change their mind about next week. They show high pressure becoming increasingly influential over much of the UK for the first time in ages.

As pointed out in the MO thread, ECM varifies best at that range, and there's no build of high pressure at all. This text outlook reflects the ECM

Seems like quite a big shift in the latest text update from the Met. 

Think we could be "on" for quite a nice first half to August with maybe improving even in the north! 

The general pointlessness of broadcasting forecasts beyond ten days or so proves itself over and over again. 

The MetO's 16-30 day updates for August have been all over the place, IMO.

Having spent much of July telling us that August would see better weather generally from the second week or thereabouts, last week they dropped their more settled outlook and instead went for a continuation of the unsettled pattern, Yet, their update yesterday did on the face of it sound a bit more hopeful for northern areas, but today's is more along the lines of many of their updates over the past week or so.

This suggests to me that whatever signals they're seeing for later in August are inconsistent, to say the least. Like I said on the model thread the other night, 16-30 day updates cannot be relied upon, and in an unsettled pattern, even forecasting for 6-15 days ahead is pushing it somewhat.

Perhaps they should say, "u turn if you want, the MetO is not for turning".  Unfortunately one suspects there could be another switch tomorrow.

I've just been listening to "What's the point of........ The Met Office" a new series on radio 4 with Quentin Letts looking at various institutions

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00k8fmc

Worth a listen (28 mins) especially if you are inclined towards the sceptic side with respect to Climate Change and the role of the Met Office in predicting future changes

A number of Met Office past and present staff put the "pro" view in support of the MetO but the majority of the programme is devoted to non Met Office employees in the sceptic camp - in particular two members or ex members of the Parliamentary Select Committee on Climate Change in the shape of Peter Lilley and Graham Stringer. There is also a short contribution from the well known (on TWO) brother of one of the Labour leadership contenders

Quentin Letts is his usual cynical but wryly amusing (IMO anyway) self

I did like the Peter Lilley comment about whether the additional energy input from increased CO2 has gone into the deep sea. It's not the dog any more - "The deep sea swallowed my homework"

Completely wrong again for today here. The forecast cloud and rain has manifested itself as sunshine all morning, cloudier now and completely dry.