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picturesareme
17 July 2015 12:27:40


It doesn't make sense anyway Andy.


After predicting more settled conditions, especially in the south, towards the end of July the second paragraph starts off 'After an unsettled end to July and very early August'....


Originally Posted by: Super Cell 


That second paragraph doesn't seen to be updated daily. 

David M Porter
17 July 2015 16:03:52


 


See my yesterday forecast further up. Total bobbins 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Even the BBC forecasts for only 2-3 days ahead seem subject to change right now. According to what they told us only yesterday, Sunday was meant to turn wet over Scotland and the far north of England after a dry start, with drier & brighter weather further south. But that seems now to have been turned on it's head with conditions over Scotland improving on Sunday, whereas Southern England now looks more likely to get rain.


If they aren't sure about forecasts at that kind of range, there's no way we can have any confidence in any forecasts for further ahead at the moment.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
bledur
17 July 2015 19:18:47


 


Even the BBC forecasts for only 2-3 days ahead seem subject to change right now. According to what they told us only yesterday, Sunday was meant to turn wet over Scotland and the far north of England after a dry start, with drier & brighter weather further south. But that seems now to have been turned on it's head with conditions over Scotland improving on Sunday, whereas Southern England now looks more likely to get rain.


If they aren't sure about forecasts at that kind of range, there's no way we can have any confidence in any forecasts for further ahead at the moment.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Tell me about it Was supposed to be baling whole crop oats Sunday going on the forecast early this morning . Luckily i checked again mid morning before going off cutting and they were giving a wet day sunday . Sod,s law it wont rain and i will be kicking myself for not getting on . Real confusion in the forecasts at present. Blink

PFCSCOTTY
18 July 2015 16:18:22
Well still no mention on the latest bbc forecast of the rain that appears to be heading towards the south (hampshire/Sussex and South East) in the next 1-3 hours! Is this the overnight rain event?
Jiries
19 July 2015 12:11:26

So a hat off to the car boot sales organizer that decided to take their own hands and sod to the forecasts. They put it on hold this morning and once the short time of light rain finished at 7am they immediately open to the public and it was a near average amount of sellers and buyers.  It the the first time they did that so I feel they got fed up with wrong forecasts and lost of income like last week they lost it by closing it and no rain came.  


I think all organizers of any events should look outside and not the forecasts since they often put it wrong.  I hope this poster here saying his picnic is cancelled to reconsider it as it nice outside and warm with sunny spells.

Essan
19 July 2015 12:17:05


So a hat off to the car boot sales organizer that decided to take their own hands and sod to the forecasts. They put it on hold this morning and once the short time of light rain finished at 7am they immediately open to the public and it was a near average amount of sellers and buyers.  It the the first time they did that so I feel they got fed up with wrong forecasts and lost of income like last week they lost it by closing it and no rain came.  


I think all organizers of any events should look outside and not the forecasts since they often put it wrong.  I hope this poster here saying his picnic is cancelled to reconsider it as it nice outside and warm with sunny spells.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 



As I always say, the best forecast for today is the radar. 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
bledur
19 July 2015 17:47:45




As I always say, the best forecast for today is the radar. 


Originally Posted by: Essan 

Not forgetting the check out girls at Tesco,s Laugh

Jiries
20 July 2015 10:00:26

Will today forecast be very wrong again as they went for mid 20's and lot of sunshine?  Nope it overcast and once again very polluted with dirty air as I don't know how it suddenly came back after a nice clear air yesterday?  Car pollution come to play now since many school are off and people are out driving around.

ARTzeman
20 July 2015 11:17:18

Met office for Radstock area has different weather this week compared to BBC Weather for Radstock. Had some non forecast mizzle not long ago. .






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
David M Porter
20 July 2015 15:54:41


Met office for Radstock area has different weather this week compared to BBC Weather for Radstock. Had some non forecast mizzle not long ago. .


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Mizzle?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gavin P
22 July 2015 12:47:25

^^^^^^


Look's like we're still on course for a return of Summer in early August?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
schmee
23 July 2015 06:03:11
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast  strong winds may be a problem Friday.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Tractor Boy
23 July 2015 10:50:22

Warnings out for the south-eastern quadrant of the UK tomorrow


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1437692400



Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
23 July 2015 21:35:57
They're very bullish about a return to settled conditions as we get into August. Just got to get through the next week or so!
Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
Essan
24 July 2015 11:38:54

Dry, settled and cool ...... 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
cultman1
24 July 2015 12:47:41
Emphasis on cool I see in the latest update !
25 July 2015 11:01:55
Charmhills
25 July 2015 11:14:04


Interesting blog post from the Met Office


http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/07/24/has-2015-really-been-that-windy/


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


A classic + NAO pattern.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Matty H
25 July 2015 17:42:47

Yet again the second section contradicts the first. Ok it only going into the first third of August, but there's no hint whatsoever of what the second section says about the month. 


 


Matty's conclusion: Total bollox  


 


David M Porter
25 July 2015 19:13:21

As far as I recall the MetO began issuing 6-15 and 16-30 day forecasts about 5 years ago after the failed "BBQ summer" forecast of 2009 and then their failure to predict the very cold weather we had the following winter, which Brian and other non-MetO forecasters saw coming in advance.


I think that a large part of the problem recently has been the slack, unsettled pattern we've been stuck in which has at times resulted in forecasts for just a couple or so days ahead being altered at short notice. Yesterday's LP system which gave southern England a real soaking was a case in point, as right up till Thursday there seemed to be uncertainty in the BBC forecasts as to how far north it would go.


As I said in the model thread this morning, I reckon that no forecaster at the moment will have anything even approaching a proper idea as to what happens from the end of next week onwards. If we can't be sure of forecasts for only a couple of days ahead verifying, how can we have any confidence in anything shown for 7-10 days' time or further ahead?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Essan
25 July 2015 20:04:54


As far as I recall the MetO began issuing 6-15 and 16-30 day forecasts about 5 years ago after the failed "BBQ summer" forecast of 2009 and then their failure to predict the very cold weather we had the following winter, which Brian and other non-MetO forecasters saw coming in advance.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Well there was no failed "BBQ summer" other than in the media, but whilst I cant recall when the current 15/30 day forecasts came into being, I do know that they were around in November/December 2010 and proved extremely accurate.  And predicted the end of that cold spell, just after Christmas, whilst certain others were saying it would persist well into the new year (and despite their failings still claim that they alone got the forecast right, and send us some dosh and we will make something up again .... )


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
David M Porter
25 July 2015 22:12:58




Well there was no failed "BBQ summer" other than in the media


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Darren Brett of the BBC used that exact phrase on at least one forecast he did in April/May 2009 (I also seem to recall another Beeb forecaster mentioning it as well around that time), and what's more the infamous phrase was the creation of the MetO's own press department, not the tabloids or any section of the mainstream press. It also received quite widespread coverage on the main news bulletins at the time and the individuals at the MetO that were interviewed were only too happy to confirm what was being reported.


IIRC, they said in April 2009 that there was a "65% chance of the 2009 summer being a predominantly dry & settled one but also a 35% chance of it being an unsettled one". Perhaps with hindsight they'd have been nearer the mark if they had said the reverse of that! They tried to backpedal in late July/early August when it became clear the forecast was going wrong by saying "Well we did say there was a 35% chance of it being unsettled". Well why the heck did they run with the BBQ summer nonsense in the first place? Did they not stop for a moment and contemplate how daft they would look if it didn't go to plan?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Jiries
26 July 2015 08:41:09

It look like they haven't follow this morning outputs of Wed being dry day now.  I thought only today it will rain then few showers on Monday followed by drier Tuesday onward on today outputs?


Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday


Rain on Tuesday clearing to sunny spells, a few showers and brisk winds, especially near coasts. Isolated showers on Wednesday, though rain possible. Mostly dry Thursday. Quite cool for July.

doctormog
28 July 2015 12:14:45
That latest MO outlook really is rather depressing for those of us in the north of the UK.
Solar Cycles
28 July 2015 13:18:17

That latest MO outlook really is rather depressing for those of us in the north of the UK.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It rounds off a dire few years of year round weather around these parts where Autumn is 9 months of the year. No doubt come December the Azores high will push the jet Northwards and we'll see the crapfest continue.😜

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