https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

MVH highlights uncertainty.

I can't believe I am back to January levels of obsessive model watching. 

BTW I checked the ECM0Z wundermap (I know itl be redundant soon) and it had a 2m temp in the south on the hottest day (first warm shot only unfortunately) between 32C and 36C so pretty impressive!

Feeling hot hot hot....................... from the ECM 12z so far.

Yes more of a direct hit from the plume than a glancing blow a la GFS, touch and go how far East/West this plume event eventually lands.

They do for the given synoptics. It's a known problem with GFS. However, the synoptics shown (at least anecdotally) are more often than not at the extreme end of the possible outcomes. 

ECM fi turns it less hot but still very warm and humid with a risk of storms for Central and Eastern areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

A huge amount of hype and a lot of excitement. I've had a lot of mates in the pub asking me about this and no way am I confirming anything until Sunday or Monday.

We've been robbed of two decent warm spells and I've still not forgotten when we were robbed of what looked like an impressive cold spell two winters ago.

It's too far ahead to be certain - yet. :-)

ECM 12z showing some the potential for some severe thundery weather, initially up through the Irish Sea into Norn Iron and W Scuutland on the 1st, then further east on the 2nd. 

ECM12Z is pretty mediocre, max 2m temp reached was 32C at <180hr. 

Yes, and its right over Justin's House (and Im not talking about Mr Tumble).

Excellent, one thing missing from here in recent years is a bloody good thunderstorm

Well the 12Z GFS shunts everything further east a bit quicker but it does represent the first time I've seen the 23C isotherm at 850mb over the UK!

Blink and you'll miss it:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.gif

Hot start to July for quite a few

What 19 in Edinburgh? It's quite common Quantum 😁

18z GFS continues the theme of a more blink and you'll miss it hot spell. Crap in my opinion, but then my hot spell standards are still very much entrenched in 2003. 

More runs required, but I'm sensing a watering down and shunting eastward, as alluded to this morning. 

Edit: I'm not writing anything off. Just commenting on individual runs. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif

Cooler on Thursday after a hot Wednesday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif

Much warmer on Friday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.gif

Saturday still in the very warm category

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

And Sunday still a v warm day

yes 18Z shoves it all east in double quick time. You'd have to factor that outcome purely on probabilities. It will still get warm but nothing too special I think. 

Hmmm. Just to join in with the individual run theme (though the 0z are always worth a note), we can see the 15c upper thermal never leaves the east coast even by 04 July, when it spreads back west.  Most of England remains under 10c + uppers throughout.

It will be interesting to see what the reactions are to run to run variation.  As we all will remember from winter (non) events, what is important is ensemble watching in these situations.  My current take is that it will get hot, stay so in the far east, and then get hotter again for most after a relative cool down in the middle section timewise.  So I happen to think the current 0z output is telling the general story well, but I guess the margins for error are so tiny that a shift 200 miles east of the whole plume could leave us cooler and moister!

GFS 0z Max temps from 28th June - 5th July

26c 26c 29c 32c 36c 28c 33c 28c

For yesterday GFS had a max of 24c and Gravesned ended up at 26c. So you can probably add a couple of degrees to these as well very impressive.

00Z GFS run is hottest yet in terms of 850s. Close to 24C at the peak.

ECM is a blink and you'll miss it affair. I'd prefer the GFS please. Cheers. 

NAVGEM is ridiculous 

With 850s this high 22c in the South records could go next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

It does does get blasted away a few days later but still very warm for the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Hottest UK chart in history! Who's up for 42c. It has 27c 850s for the East!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1682.html