In response to Brian's post above the ground is bone dry here in Ireland (Galway) of all places atm in spite of our having had higher percentage rainfall than the UK - would certainly help temperatures to rise. 

Would say that 40 degrees is definitely doable in the UK, if the August 2003 synoptics had stayed in place a little longer it would likely have happened then. Even the high cloud spilling over on the 11th took something of the edge off the temperatures on that one day.

Remember it well, now watching from the cooler environs here. Interesting week coming up! 

 

Even drier along the east coast of Ireland with just 9.7 mm for the month so far in Dublin for example

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Looking at all the comments and the model outputs, once again I'm glad I no longer work in a tomato greenhouse. Otherwise I'd be reaching for the razor blades by now.  

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That'd set a thickness record:

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/154

It's around 580 over the far SE. The 582 line has never made it to the UK, but it'd be a gnat's whisker away on that chart...

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stunning from the mean

 That might be wrong after all

 

 

 

Save this chart. It's the first and probably only time you'll see a 38C over the UK on a forecast chart!

(It's the 6z NAVGEM).

And this:

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Pah, the downgrade has begun. 42C on the 00Z NAVGEM and only 38C on the 06Z!

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Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

JMA Friday + Next Week's Heatwave;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Contains that extreme NAVGEM 00z chart which WON'T come off but is now saved on video for posterity!!! 

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GFS6z was distinctly chilly early for much of next week.  Surely even the heat haters want to see it let rip next week and records broken?

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Some of the output looks like records will surely tumble next week, if not come close!
The plume brings extreme air all the way from Spain and I can't wait...
I booked the week off work so will make the most of the scorching conditions. Though none of this helps the brown lawn situation here down south.

I've just added in a new postage stamp GEFS which shows UK 850s. It's available from the Chart viewer (recently upgraded for smartphones)and an example is: 

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Surely a typo, should be "all of this is fantastic news for the brown lawn situation here down South".

Like the "good news" the Californian surfing fraternity keep talking about with the upcoming strong El Nino.

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Still very far from nailed on, then.

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The models have firmed up in one respect and that is that we will at least get some hot weather from this plume,how hot, how long, how far it penetrates North and West still to be resolved.

Even though we don't know the details and how long we do know a fairly quick breakdown of the hottest weather is likely along with associated storms. So far July 2nd looks most likely to see some fireworks rather than July 4th.

 

I'll take permitation 17 please. 

As Rob noted, there's also a lot of relative guff still there. Long, long way to go yet. 

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I think everyone who likes warm weather has everything to be optimistic about.

Absolute worst case scenario would be 25C I think, and I think everyone here fully expects us to get past 30C. 

Anything beyond that is really only useful for interest purposes anyway.

 

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It's already reached 27C today down in these parts, Q 

 

Still managed to feel a bit coolish in a T-shirt with a nagging breeze though when I went out at lunchtime.

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Yeh, so given that people know I hate warm weather I will have to assume any moaning (or creation of some summer moaning thread) was done just to annoy me! 

I am hoping for one day of really hot weather though, because it will be awesome if the record falls; that's the reason I am back to a healthy 4 models per day despite the silly season being 4 months away (that's right matty only 1/3 of the year to go).

 

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My word, doesn't time fly.
Only a few months to go before moaning about the lack of real cold weather replaces the moaning about the lack of real heat.

On topic, and two or more hot to potentially very hot days are very likely next week, even further North. Whether we approach record levels remains to be seen but upper flow and synoptics are certainly conducive for it.

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