Don`t know if you remember 1976, but the sea temp got as high as 72f.Was at the beach and in the sea almost everyday of the school holidays and it felt like a warm bath.

They got close to this last year at Lee on Solent. 😊

Local in waters got as high as 21C. I must stress though this was probably a very local thing, and almost certainly within 100 or so meters of the beach.

Not such a good ECM today after the heatwave it takes us straight to Autumn. It's possible but unlikely as ensembles paint a very different picture.

Edit - actually it looks like the Azores high is building in again so perhaps not as bad as I first thought.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

All of the models have been crap in their consistency beyond a few days in this setup. All of the ones worth looking at (ie not NAVGEM) have been varied a lot, although if you look at the bigger picture it's because of where we are on the cusp of this. Broadly speaking the general pattern is the same 

yes it's not as bad as I first thought and I should think it won't be anything like this come the time. GFS and Gem better as well.

Gem quite hot actually.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2402.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn23417.gif

V Warm even this far out from GFS

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 30TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly warm then hot SE flow covers the UK with a thundery trough edging in towards Western Britain tomorrow

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving North or NE over the British Isles over the next week or so. It ebbs and flows somewhat but has a trend to veer more towards a West or SW to East or NE trajectory with time.

http://www.netweathe...ction=Jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows occasional periods of hot conditions across the SE over the next week and warm conditions elsewhere at times each time with cooler fresher air invading preceded by a period of thundery rain or potential storms. Then in the second week a more coherent push towards cooler and fresher weather looks likely with Westerly winds and rain at times especially in the North though still with some dry and warm conditions at times across the South.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a similar pattern though it takes until well into the second week to see significantly cooler weather reach the far SE with a continuation of a lot of fine and dry weather down here while the North sees more occasional rain on a Westerly flow.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show a lot of NW winds in two weeks time around an Azores High with significantly cooler conditions than currently with some showery rain at times especially across the North and East.

http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO==

UKMO UKMO today shows very warm or hot weather to start the weekend before an active thundery trough clears NE on Saturday with fresher and cooler weather over the weekend in a SW flow with some further showery rain at times in the North and West.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air moving NE over the UK at the weekend though the 96hr and 120hr chart usually updated late last evening have not updated on my browser.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather breaking down at the weekend but never entirely leaving the far SE. It continues to show more incursions of heat next week towards these parts with warm weather at times elsewhere too with further thundery outbreaks possible as the Atlantic fresher air continues to fight back across the UK. High pressure never moves far away from Southern Britain too as an extension of Azores ridge at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pulses of cooler and fresher air making it's way across the UK on occasion through the next week but the fine and very warm or hot conditions at the end of the week look like being the last of the very high temperatures for a time. A lot of fine and warm weather then predominates next week across the South with the cooler fresher westerly winds in the North delivering occasional rain.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows hot weather at the end of the week being displaced by a trough of  Low pressure introducing cooler and fresher Atlantic air. the precursor to this will be some thundery rain or storms especially over the east. thereafter fresher air holds more control across the UK with the heat held to the South. Some rain or showers are likely too at times but more especially across the North of the UK with winds settling into a cool NW'ly late in the period.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with Low pressure up to the North and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.3 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.0 pts with GFS at 82.4 pts and UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 26.1 pts to 21.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The general outlook remains very similar this morning with the heat of the coming days gradually relaxing away to the South after the end of the working week. The message is as before up to that point with some very high temperatures tomorrow and again on Saturday with a few thunderstorms briefly as the cooler Atlantic air begins to make inroads behind a couple of thundery troughs tomorrow night and Friday night. Thereafter it looks that the hot weather will more likely be held the other side of the channel while most of the UK-though pleasantly warm at times-see fresher Atlantic winds from the West keep warmth to more modest levels and restricted to the South as fronts further North crossing from the West bring occasional rain or showers at times. It never looks though that hot weather will be far away from the South and SE of the UK and some models demonstrate this by feeding it back into the South and SE at times and, while the build of High pressure building back across the South of the UK shown by last night's ECM has been removed this morning I'm sure it will feature in other runs over the coming days. It certainly looks likely that blisteringly high temperatures are a temporary feature but while there is nothing unpleasant shown within the models plenty of warm weather should be experienced for many over the next few weeks with just the occasional summer shower to freshen the air and always the chance of a rebuild of heat from the South or SE.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday July 1st 2015

Thank you Martin for the output..   If it got too hot then walking would not be a pleasure. Might have to hide under a tree at Shearwater Tomorrow ....

That's interesting Tim

This link from a fishing angle (excuse the pun) is interesting too.

http://fishingtails.co.uk/water-temperature-increase-helps-improve-the-fishing/

Until recently temps have been subdued in the Channel as anglers have found with mackerel for example quite scarce this year so far.

Nick

No change and still showing very hot weather on Saturday with low 30's but as you know they undercook temps like today at 27C when actual would be 30C today.  I think more likely my local temps will reach what it shown in Benelux max temps as they show 30C there today and here 27C so by Saturday I would be expecting around 34-36C here which is way right compare to wrong BBC forecast of high 20's on Saturday with uppers of 20-21C in SE.

The warm / v warm conditions continue for a while

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.gif

Yes the GFS 6z is a belter of a run. Prolonged heat for the South.

Yes I confess my post was based on third party information about sea temps and not actual data (rubbish scientific practice lol). It was a fisherman actually who told me the water had been cooler than normal but now I see its around of just above normal.

The principle holds though - whatever the heat inland the immediate coast will always been cooled by the sea.

What you think about the Benelux temps right to the coast always seem to get same temps in here like today they gone for 30C over there and now it 29.8C in Iver near Slough and 29C in West Ewell.  I always rely on Benelux temps for here as most hot spells come off even last year a mere 32C was reached here while the models was showing only 29-30C and 32C in Benelux areas.

All the models struggle with Max temps including GFS and ECM. GFS normally under cooks maxes by 2 or 3 degrees sometimes more. Somewhere will probably get to 90f today. As for tomorrow 36c/37c here. Prob 38c in Belgium.

All  NWP models offer nothing more than a guide though so they will never get max/min/rainfall amounts fully spot on, which is why your own interpretation and experience of the climate of your own locality or those of a mainstream forecaster will often prove to be more valuable.

All through the hi-res portion of the GFS, that trough just sticks around in the Atlantic to our west, with the blocking to S, E & N holding it in place.

It obviously helps advect all this warm air northwards - but it also spins a succession of shortwave lows toward us. Some get further than others, unfortunately.

Once we hit lo-res, GFS just blasts the trough through eastwards. I'm not buying that.

Nice looking ukmo tonight. GFS goes down hill after day 6 though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html