You simply mentioned that we had two warm July's on the  bounce. You never actually mentioned a specific CET value that needed to be reached in order for a month to be considered 'warm' or 'very warm'. I don't read minds, you know.

My point about CET, is that a month like August 2008 can appear average at face value, but that only tells you half the story. August 2008 was widely above average in terms of mean temperature - but daytime temperatures were actually significantly below average in southern England and slightly below elsewhere. Not only that, but it was exceptionally wet for many areas, and exceedingly cloudy. Certainly not a good month by anyone's standards unless you like rain & cloud.

Actually, your location is wetter than mine. We only get about 603mm in an average year here compared to your location, which is more like 640mm.

So basically then, on average, summer months in Britain are not hot and sunny, but often cloudy and wet, and the CET temp is more down to warm nights than warm days.

words of wisdom.

Some bizarre comparisons on here of late. Florida, China etc.  hilarious!!!!

Back to the models - still really no idea what's going to happen later next week. 

Not very much in fairness. I've recorded that amount already this year.

Looks quite cool.

Good luck with that, considering the 81-10 average is under 20C as a high for Leeds in both July and August!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcwfhf1w0 (see also Wikipedia)

Even down here the average in July and August for say Maidstone is 22.5 and 22.6C respectively...

As will much of Leeds, Bingley is much higher up.
Between Leeds and York is rain shadow and one of the driest areas in the country.

Retron - that site is for Bingley, which is at 250m ASL. Leeds itself is at 45m ASL. That station is in no way representative of here.

Even Leeds Bradford Airport is at 200m ASL and is by far the highest civilian airport in the UK.

My figures are taken from Church Fenton - much closer in elevation to here. The areas between Leeds and York happen to be among the driest in the UK, and very often record some of the UK's highest temps. It isn't all Pennine gloom up here.

And that's it - I'll say no more on the matter.

And GFS actually looks decent on the latest update IMO.

So now we have all of the major models showing another notable deviation from what should be a set pattern of Euro ridging for the foreseeable.

I have been wondering about what might be driving it but you know what, it may simply be a case of poor timing with the area of low pressure early next week. Searching through the various other models out there, I found one which is slower with the low and guess what, the Euro Ridge hangs on:

I suppose ECM has made quite a big jump in that direction. Meanwhile the GFS op runs have kind of wandered away from it on the 06z only to return toward it on the 12z. UKMO shows little inclination to follow suit but how often do we say that about its day 6 output...?

I'm hoping that what we're seeing in the model output is a consequence of them having strong signals from the forcing behind last week's events subsiding but only weak signals with respect to the next build of Pacific convection.

Trouble is, through all this I'm having to assume that the next round of tropical convection plays nicely with the El Nino setup instead of acting all rebellious and moving to Indonesia or something. Statistically the former is favoured once El Nino reaches the stage that it has, but this is not enough to allow me to rest easy having gone for a warm July based on what the global teleconnections were pointing to (I had to rely on that as I was abroad and unable to view the model output in much detail).

If it all goes pie in the sky then I guess that will be another area of forecasting worth little merit beyond about 10 days range 

Even the BBC forecasters are having a hard time predicting where it will rain or not. yesterday they went for heavy rain and localized flooding during morning rush hour while the models somehow change track at very short notice and put HP closer which killed of the rain and end up light and patchy.  Now they are doing the same thing for Sunday wash out here despite the strong 1020b ridge over us at that range.  Was the models showing 1000mb or less over here for Sunday?  I see now is 1020mb which they may have not updated yet.  

Window viewing is the best option to know what the weather like and by later next week you get the answer when you get up and open the curtains.

Absolutely right Leeds Lad, as the crow flies i'm less than 10 miles from leeds/bradford airport but there is a huge difference in the weather - much drier and warmer over my way. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs2344.gif

Another pulse of very hot air coming here next Saturday with widespread 40's in France and low 30's to possible mid 30's here but I do hope it won't come off since this LP is too quick to come in and stay for days with rain showers so I prefer the ECM outcome with HP slowly centering UK.  That I hope it come off even the temps won't be high as silly GFS put down.  I don't believe it can reach 40-43C in many places in France with LP around due to storms and rain around.

that only shows mid 20's for the uk Jires 😐

It's also extremely wet and unsettled, probably thundery for large areas around the back end of next week. Not that it will happen like that, and subsequent runs will undoubtedly be completely different. Better or worse. 

Not worried about it as it a outlier on both London and Paris ensembles so it unlikely to come off and hopefully follow the ECM route with gradual warming and rightly near equalized temps between here and the NW continent, not 15-20C hotter than us.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JULY 9TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure crosses Southern Britain today followed by a trough of Low pressure across Northern areas tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South with some short warm spells at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow near or across the UK in the coming week before showing signs of weakening and breaking up in situ through the atter part of the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the same pattern as recently through the first week as High pressure remains to the South or SW and Low pressure to the North and NE. The South would see occasional rain but this would be more frequent across the North in a generally West or NW breeze for all. The second week shows High pressure building in the Atlantic and extending a ridge towards Scotland. meanwhile a cut off Low to the SW of the UK turns the South unsettled with rain at times with this extending NE to all by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run looks similar through Week 1 and it too builds High pressure across the Atlantic too in a week or so but on this run it moves it back to what seems it's semi residential home of late to the SW returning conditions to what they are currently by the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning look universal that the UK will lie in an Atlantic flow of winds from the NW or West in 2 weeks time with occasional rain especially in the North and the best of the dry weather in the South in largely average temperatures.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a Westerly flow over the weekend and start to next week with some rain at times but dry spells too in average temperatures. The run culminates in a broad trough across the UK next Wednesday with rain or showers for all with temperatures held to average levels at best.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show trailing fronts across the UK over the weekend and start to next week with some rain at times in their proximity but drier and brighter phases as they move away at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today has a show of building pressure somewhat across the Atlantic next week which on this run holds no benefit for us as a depression to the SW deepens somewhat and moves NE across the UK later with rain and showers for all as it goes before a slow build of pressure from the SW is shown at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows building pressure across the Atlantic next week putting the UK under a cool and potentially showery NW feed as Low pressure remains in situ to the NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is the most encouraging run this morning as it makes less of the Atlantic High pressure build and quickly turns what building pressure there is back down to the SW of the UK feeding a ridge NE across Southern areas later and returning warm and fne conditions here by the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a rather nice picture of a ridge building NE from the Azores across the UK though with various other opions diffusing this issue somewhat too. However, it looks warm whatever option of pressure synoptics is arrived at come the time

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only trend I can detect this morning is that winds could turn more Northerly in the latter stages of the period as pressure possibly shows signs of building North through the Atlantic in 10-14 days time though this remains not to be a dead cert.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.0 pts followed by GFS at 81.6 and UKMO at 81.6 pts too. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.0 pts over GFS's 49.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 31.8 pts to 28.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Not much to say this morning as there seems little cross model consensus on actual day to day events over the coming two weeks. The first week looks straightforward enough though even then day to day weather events are difficult to pin down for any one place but the general theme remains of rather changeable conditions with some rain at times for all especially in the North while the South continues to see the best chance of staying dry the most and consequently the warmest too. In Week 2 there is a theme of building High pressure through the Atlantic which could result in a pattern change as winds would switch to the North for a time and as a result it could mean a cool phase of weather for all for a time before an improvement as hopefuly the High would eventually move over the UK. However, ECM doesn't like that theory this morning sinking any build of pressure back down to the SW and allowing warm SW'lies to waft over the South later and warming things up here considerably. Threre are also other options shown such as a cut of Low moving NE across the UK after the Atlantic build of pressure which would intensify the resultant unsettled nature of the weather over the UK. So it's a case of pays your money and takes your choice still between the output today as there is very much disagreement on specifics of weather the further out from the present we go and certainly more so than usual. It looks like our typical model watchers phrase that 'more runs are needed' is appropriate again today.

Next update from 08:00 Friday July 10th 2015

Indeed.

Looking increasingly unsettled to my eye even for the south at times, but open to change once more no doubt.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs2044.gif

Highly unlikely to see extreme heat in every corner of France while UK missed out due to HP giving us mid 20's days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs2284.gif

It now give me confidence it will never come off with such cold temps from Midlands northward and few places in low 20's in the SE while France continued to baking hot.  Thankfully is in the FI and one for the bin.

It likely outcome seeing mid to high 20's in N France high 20's to low 30's in SW France and low to mid 20's in here with that HP set up.

That is a remarkable 'accurate' miss for heat lovers isn't it. People in Folkestone looking west would feel the heat graze their left cheek!

Still, I'm of to SW France for some R&R at the end of the month, so things are looking good for that region at least!

Not sure where to put this but where is the North Atlantic Drift/ Gulf Stream? as diffuse and weak a flow as I've seen in a long time. Heat form the gulf is not overcoming the SST anomaly. Could be having an impact? your guess as good as mine. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-21.66,42.43,1024

Clear cool night under the stars tonight suits me fine.. Great for viewing...