again this is not entirely true.

July in Paris is dryer in the sense that there are fewer days of rain, and less monthly rain. January in Sydney see's more wet days and more rain.

Paris also see's more sunshine in July then Sydney in January.

As I been viewing the models for many years I had always notice how other neighbouring countries that sit next to the Atlantic does have longer spell of hot and cold weather.  Look back few years ago when I see the temps charts for Spain was in subzero despite far much warmer SST's around them and Spain are almost an island but did not' prevent them.  SST's are nothing to do that control our weather is the LP behavior and positions that during most hot or cold spells LP often in the hurry and halted over us compare to normal zonal days when LP took it time and took days to weeks to finish which that why mild weather can last longer, so why not in summer to give us longer warmer to hot spells with LP taking it time unlike last Wed was too quick or HP to the west took it time to move in which give us boring cool, cloudy days to weeks.

It all there on the model charts and not the SST's as they didn't stop us getting 38.5c in August 2003 or -27C in Scotland in 1995.

The 12z GFS mid to long term remains crap at the moment. Mind you, as soon as that dickhead started spouting about record heat on his Facebook page, and how "third party agencies were playing catchup" it was bound to start going the other way 

Much uncertainty after about 6 days as usual:With the operational pretty much the coldest mid term option: Dismissed.

I'm scratching my head over recent GFS runs as they go against the expected recycling of the pattern which sees the Euro Ridge holding on and then making another push north not long after mid-month (as an estimate).

That expectation is based on a lack of forcing from tropical events (as the recent super-strong MJO pulse subsides) to drive a major pattern shift at the mid-latitudes, followed by a new convective event of a similar nature to that just gone (so repeating the mid-latitude impacts). So where is this mid-Atlantic ridge idea coming from? If anyone has any ideas, I'm all ears - or should I say eyes!

Whatever it is, clearly ECM (day 9 shown below-left) is hanging out in a different ballpark, as it readily transfers next week's ridge toward Europe, and in fact establishes a substantial mid-Atlantic trough by day 10 with signs of heat starting to push north toward the UK from SW Europe.

GEM (day 9 shown below-right) also likes the mid-Atlantic trough idea, though with a lot more in the way of higher heights toward Greenland.

As for UKMO (day 6 shown below-left), that one's a hard one to call - it shows some form of mid-Atlantic ridge but also suggests a flat jet exiting Canada which could plow right through. JMA (day 8 shown below-right) proves helpful as it's not far from UKMO at day 6 and shows how things might go from there out to day 8, with the ridge in the Atlantic a weak affair and unlikely to stand up in the face of the next low exiting Canada. I reckon UKMO would be similar, but a bit quicker to move that next low into the Atlantic.

The overall conclusion, then, is far from great, with the main headline being something along the lines of 'glancing blows from the Atlantic, best weather for the southeast where it will be warm at times'.

It does seem that the sheer extremity of last week's events first in the tropics and then across the mid-latitudes has come with a heavy payload - there has to be a strong zonal spell to balance the strongly meridional spell... i.e. the jet was meandering like a crazed drunkard but now needs to get on the straight and narrow 

What the mid-latitude zonality does serve to do is trap that heat across Europe, as that sits largely to the south of the westerly momentum. The westerlies shave off a bit of the hot air at times, but it keeps on simmering away across Spain for example. So we can't afford to get complacent and write off the possibility of severe heatwave conditions appearing at some point later in the season - unless of course we go the way of recent GFS (op) runs, in which case the persistent northerlies would prove a welcome breath of fresh air for a large part of the continent.

Either outcome has its positives and negatives so I guess we'll just have to take it as it comes!

It wasn't me, m'lord!

18z GFS op completely different from the 12z in the mid term onward. Totally and utterly different. Miles better. 

Conclusion: model watching is a pointless waste of time. 

Words of wisdom

Indeed. And the 00z is totally different again. 

Even in the short term like this Saturday showing 27C here so it an upgrade.

Look at the ECM, UKMO and GFS for early next week for an idea of how we have absolutely no idea what's going to happen after this week. 

Indeed, but it's not just random noise around the mean. There seem to be two very different versions of the future on offer with not much in the middle, and an inflection point around the 14/15th.

This shows up most clearly on the Paris GEFS ensemble (because Paris is more affected by the warm European air than us). During the weekend high pressure slips away East and we get Westerlies into Sunday and Monday, but in some runs low pressure digs in hard and Atlantic blocking sets in behind, whilst in others the pattern stays flat and we have variations on a theme of more of the same for a few days.

Personally I'm more inclined to believe the Northerly blocking scenario because we're overdue a pattern change, but I'm crossing my fingers I'm wrong.

Agree. I think it was yourself mentioned a while back that a pattern change/reset may not be a bad thing and could eventually lead to a better shot at tapping into the euro heat. That assuming it's still there. Some runs do their best to ruin that as well

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 8TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move away East towards Scandinavia today with a ridge of High pressure moving in behind the NW airflow over the UK today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South with some short warm spells at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow well South of it's normal summertime positioning undulating North and South across the UK several times over the next couple of weeks.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North/South split in weather type over the next few weeks with High pressure tantalizingly close enough to the South at times for some fine and warm conditions. However, Westerly winds across the North throughout in association with Low pressure crossing East to the North will deliver occasional rain and showers in cooler winds for these areas. there will be some High pressure interludes in the North too notably in a weeks time but the displaced jet flow quickly pushes it away and brings all areas into cooler and changeable weather towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run maintains the general theme of the operational though day to day comparisons are well wide of the mark of the other. Nevertheless the theme of the North/South split in conditions holds good with the most of any meaningful rainfall restricted to more Northern areas while the South stays drier and brighter for more of the time.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point show two options likely in the weather pattern in two weeks time. One has High pressure to the West and a cool but relatively settled Northerly flow across the UK or High pressure to the South as currently with a continuation of the North/South split in conditions.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning is not wonderful again this morning as after a fair start to the weekend the weather goes downhill and eventually cooler again with some rain for all as winds swing from SW to NW by early next week in association with a depression crossing East to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the coming days followed by a Westerly flow across the UK, relatively weak in the South. With weak fronts in the airflow some occasional rain is likely almost anywhere but chiefly in the North for much of the time but the South on Sunday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows another variation on the same theme as the rest with rather more rain at times for all at times including the South later as Low pressure and troughs edge across all areas from the West later. Temperatures will be best across the South with the coolest conditions across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no change to the message already laid down by the other output in maintaining a Westerly feed of wind from the Atlantic delivering some rain at times, mostly but not exclusively to the North with temperatures ranging from near average in the North to average or a little above at times in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is not pretty and looks a lot like UKMO at the day 6 stage with an active depression moving East to the North and a cool NW flow sweeping down over the Uk with showers and rain a possibility for all especially in the North and East. This forms a catalyst for pressure then to build North through the Atlantic and keep winds in a cool Northerly quadrant over the UK at the end of the period and though mostly dry for many by then it could end up disappointingly cloudy and chilly in exposure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening begins to show that there are an increasing amount of members who show a build of pressure to the West of the UK in 10 days with a slow trend towards a Northerly flow possible across the UK displacing the rather warm uppers across the South of recent output. As a postscript to this this morning's chart has strengthened that theme..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only trend I can detect this morning is that winds could turn more Northerly in the latter stages of the period as pressure possibly shows signs of building North through the Atlantic in 10-14 days time

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 81.7 and UKMO at 81.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 51.5 pts over GFS's 48.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 31.2 pts to 27.8 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning I find myself reporting on a set of charts which differ wildly day to day beyond day 5 or so but still sing from a pattern of weather which doesn't look like changing any time soon. Pressure remains High to the South of the UK maintaining Europe in a pleasant Summer of weather with very warm or hot conditions locked in down there. For us we continue to lie on the Northern flank of this belt of High pressure which is unable for the most part to ridge North into the UK for any length of time before a Jet stream too far South dislodges any ridges back from where they came a few days later. A typical example of this is this coming few days when pressure builds across the South at least to give some fine and warm conditions for a time before the Atlantic wins back by Sunday and it becomes a case of 'as you were' thereafter. It doesn't mean complete doom and gloom though as there will be some fine and dry weather for all at times and in the South it could be occasionally warm. Then we have to look forward into the longer term projections to see if there are any signs of change there. What I can see is a possibility of it becoming no better for heat seekers as there seems growing confidence between the models that pressure may build North through the Atlantic later next week pulling winds into a Northerly quarter and while this might mean a continuation of quite dry conditions in the South and West winds from the North will peg temperatures back towards normal at best. It's all a case of clutching straws to find any way out of the current locked in pattern so I wouldn't say this change is a definite yet but at the moment I don't see any chance of a UK wide heatwave any time soon as the Jet stream forecast across the North Atlantic continues to look unfavourable so it's a case of pick and choose the short warm and fine periods in the South when they come as they might not last long before the next wave of Atlantic fronts arrive.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 9th 2015

I think it look's like we're reverting back to June's pattern with high pressure to the south-west keeping the south... OK (nothing special, but alright) while the north and west get's all the cloudy, damp muck coming around the top of the high.

Temperatures nothing special, infact cooler than average in the north.

Best advice anyone can give. Depending on what you're looking for it invariably leads to disappointment.

We live next to a vast ocean so should not be surprised that our weather is pretty tedious for much of the time.  If you can get it dry in the summer that's half the battle. Anything else is a bonus.

You're not going to get heatwave synoptics that often here, in fact they are fairly uncommon for any extended period.

We have had two warm July's on the bounce and I'm not holding out huge hopes for this one despite the start based purely on statistical averages.

The brief hot weather of last week was doomed as soon as it started as it was borne of unsettled conditions with LP throwing up heat in advance of its progress eastwards. If we had heat purely as a result of persistent HP across the country that is far more stable but not an option at the moment.

But those 2 July months where proceeded by 6 poor summers, or to look at it another way 18 consecutive crap summer months. 

This summer so far has been rather poor, but thankfully not a wash out. June was cool with quite a lot of unseasonably cold nights, July has started fairly average**, but the outlook for the rest of the month looks at best average at worst cool.  

** Setting aside Heathrow's fishy record, a plume  event can happen In any summer month and with it hot temperatures should be expected. I would say it's fairly reasonable to expect at least one short lived hot plume on these isles in most average summers.

OK - Only July 1994,95,99, 2003 & 2006 reached or exceeded 17.5'c CET. 2013 & 2014 both did as well and the point being that this is SIGNIFICANTLY above average and not just above average.

As for an earlier comment, how many of those 18 summer months quoted in the "6 poor summers" were actually below average.

I would point out that not all those summers were poor although they had poorer spells and for the most part were representative of our normal climate aprt from the excessive flooding of 2007 and 2012.

I agree with that.

The heat of last week never looked likely to be really anything more than what virtually turned out to be a one-day wonder, according to what the model runs were indicating during the days leading up to early last week. It came about purely as the result of a stand-off between the atlantic LP and a high over the continent, with neither really gaining proper control of the UK's weather until early last Saturday when a cold front swept in from the atlantic and cleared away the last of the continental heat, causing t-storms to develop in many places in the process. It was always odds-on that the atlantic would return sooner rather than later after last week's heat as there was no meaningful rise in pressure over the country to turn it into a more generally settled spell.

I'd like to point out that not everyone is looking for a very warm month like July 2013 - clearly it's unrealistic to expect a month that warm to show its hand 2 times in 2 years - but your description of a 'normal' British summer is at odds with mine. I expect most days here to be around the 21-22C mark, with partly or mostly cloudy skies, and rain/showers on 8 days of the month in July and August. Obviously some days will be cooler and others warmer, but some of the model output being churned out in recent days would have given a distinctly chilly NW flow here, with highs consistently below 20C, which is objectively very poor for the time of year.

And I'm afraid very few summer months between 2007 and 2012 delivered. Even warm months like July 2010 were very cloudy - and 'average' months like August 2008 only looked average because the nights were so warm, thanks to the excessive cloud and rain (which is hwy judging a month based on CET values alone is extremely misleading).

and to add to that I can count on one hand how many days reached 29C during those 6 crap summers. They were utter crap!! The best of those 18 months saw low 20's with a few days in mid 20's... But it was mainly unsettled and often average at best.

21/22'c may be average but our climate if highly variable simply because we are between a large continent and a large ocean in a latitude where the jet operates actively. As a result there will be sometimes wide variation as the polar front oscillates in response to the jet and the creation of low pressure areas.

If you're not looking for a very warm month I'm not sure why you started quoting that there were other series of above average months amounting to more than two Julys in a row? As it is there aren't really any recent examples of more than 2 successive Julys above 17.5'c 

The CET is chosen deliberately as it is the longest dataset available.

As for months not "delivering" well it depends what on your wishlist which is probably different to mine although my location will usually be ambiently warmer and drier than yours