I have no idea what that did show, but what it shows now is pretty disgusting.

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Total mess even at 4 days out. No agreement at all. Basically anything could happen, but don't look to the models to find out. 

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That's not a new trend either. The mid range models have swung between amazing to crap from run to run for the last few weeks now. 

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If anything, ECM especially is increasing pressure anomalies over Greenland as we head towards the middle of July. I don't think there is anything to worry about yet though, because while the outlook might not be super fantastic, it isn't bad either. Average summer weather really with plenty of dry weather around.

 

 

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Yeah, it seems to be trying to do that on tonight's run, but on last night's 12z it showed pressure falling over Greenland markedly allowing the jet to return northwards, much the same as GFS 12z has done tonight in FI.

I agree with what Matty said earlier about things still being all over the place at 4 or so days ahead. UKMO to some extent seems to be at odds with GFS & ECM as it seems to indicate high pressure having more influence over the UK at 144hrs, whereas the latter two are going for a flatter pattern with more of an influence from low pressure to the NW at the same timeframe. Still a lot for the models to sort out, I reckon.

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I'll leave LRFs to the numpties that enjoy a kicking, but it does have to be said that we would have to be very unlucky not to see some serious heat on these shores again in the coming weeks. 

Now naturally with the usual rule that if it can go wrong it will in our absolutely abysmal climate, then maybe not, but all the ingredients are there for some potentially record breaking stuff at some stage. You only have to look at the continent. 

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I'd love to see you try posting at netweather and see their mod team react!

In all seriousness I agree with you provided Spain and ideally the continent in general stays warm. Ideally we would want some very high SSTs in the med and biscay.

 

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They have a mod team? You'd never know. 

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To my amateur eye it would seem a combination of things. Northern blocking can ^%#} off. Rather than the last scenario of low pressure in the Atlantic feeding the air up across us in what is always likely to be a short-lived and potentially unstable situation, I would rather see something like the MetO charts of the other day that build high pressure off the Azores across the UK that could then extend into the near East continent feeding hot air across us in a far more stable and long-lived pattern. Or am I being greedy?

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Another thing that we don't get the same entitlement on the duration of the hot spells, we often get it last and we lose first which is not right way to do that.  From other thread with new record broken in Germany nearly 1 week since our heatwave departed seem unfair we didn't get it for at least few days instead of 1 day wonder.  The recent 22C uppers that arrived here last week was far too short timing while in the continent can keep it for many days.  

Nope we are well overdue for this set up.

0z runs lot of HP days and very dry run but like what Matty post that I would like to see this big HP move over us and not just W of B.I which give us boring average weatherwise and no heat.  This is dangerous and hope it won't come off as it will destroy the heat in the continent after looking at France's ensembles.   I hope in the next week runs to push the HP in further as I don't know why they prefer to keep HP in the wrong position despite Greenland have lot of LP around.

ECM looks crap this morning let's hope it's wrong. GFS GEM and ukmo all look better . Not much sign of another heatwave though apart from GEM. All things considered it looks like a North South split.

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Good point actually.
The last one only lasted from 11am to 3pm on 1st July here 

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Far too short and that why i wish last week heatwave would lasted 4-5 days as I only experienced 1 very hot day with a hot morning to start with.  Need more than 1 day to experience it but no signs of that on the models at the moment so just boring type from the north.  It would bring gin clear skies but nothing out of interest with average to coolish temps.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JULY 7TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move East over Scotland today and away to the NE tomorrow. A cooler and showery West then NW flow will cover the UK after the clearance of a cold front out of the SE this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South and East with some warm spells at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to predict the flow to lie further South than is usual at this time of year, usually lying across the UK at a NW to SE axis in the next few days and again for a time in Week 2 with a displacement further to the North briefly as ridges cross Southern Britain. The flow pattern is much less clear later in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run yet again this morning shows little change to the overall pattern with the North/South split in conditions persisting as High pressure never lies far away to the South or West later. Fronts on the Westerly flow over the UK continue to bring occasional rain and showers to chiefly but not exclusively the North while the South sees some fine and warm interludes too. A slack North or NW flow late in the period is again hinted at this morning as pressure builds North through the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run follows the theme to which we have all become accustomed too throughout it's run this morning with South being best for the drier and brighter spells between occasional bouts of Atlantic rain and showers.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point continue to point towards High pressure being parked out across the Atlantic in 14 days time with a resultant NW flow down across the UK. A third of members think that High pressure will be dominant enough to ward off a cool and showery NW'ly but the remainder seem to think that showers at least are possible with a cool fetch of winds across the UK from Northerly latitudes.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning is not as good as last night's run which indicated a strong push from the Azores High over Southern Britain from the weekend. Instead we have a flatter pattern with Low pressure close to the North and a Westerly flow across the UK. So rain at times seems the order of the day with the South seeing the best of the dry weather in any warmth. At least a little rain at times is possible even here though on this morning's outlook.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cool NW flow in the next few days giving way to a ridge from the SW over the South by the weekend. The UK lies mostly on the Northern flank of any ridge still allowing some influence across the UK from fronts with a little rain at times especially over the North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows changeable weather persisting as generally Westerly winds prevail over the next week. Some warm and sunny weather from occasional builds of pressure seem likely across the South before the Atlantic Westerlies regain supremacy after a few days. It's not until the end of the run when a more potent build of pressure builds across the UK with fine and dry weather for most though even thn it looks like thundery Low pressure could arrive from the SW soon after day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains the Westerly theme of winds too with occasional troughs passing East over the UK with enough energy to ensure we all see a little rain at times between spells of drier and brighter weather. By the end of the run it looks more generally unsettled as a broad showery trough lies across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today looks quite poor if it's a return of high summer your after as it has strengthened it's theme on Westerly winds persisting across the UK throughout the run with spells of rain and/or showers as each trough passes or Low pressure to the North but with some drier pahses too especially in the South. It does bottle all the warmth and heat well to the South on this run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows fairly slack conditions across the UK with a slight bias towards Westerly winds and indifferent pressure gradients making for the risk of showers for all in temperatures at least not cool.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today has taken a step back away from any meaningful return to summer warmth on a UK wide scale but maintains it's desire to keep a Westerly flow across the UK overall.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 82.0 and UKMO at 81.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 50.1 pts over GFS's 47.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 29.9 pts to 27.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather over the UK over the next few weeks looks to be controlled by a Jet Stream which refuses to relocate to a latitude that it should be at this part of the year which is near Iceland. Instead it is predicted to lie across the UK in one form or another for some considerable time and preventing any true build of pressure from the South or SW (which is hinted at repeatedly) from lasting any more than a day or so before becoming displaced. So what does this mean in terms of weather? Well I can still say South is best over the coming few weeks as all the Low pressure remains across more Northern areas of the UK but this doesn't mean that the South will always be dry as troughs attached to these Lows will cross Southern areas too occasionally giving outbreaks of rain or showers. Temperatures will be mostly average over the North unless winds switch NW behind any depressions in which case it may feel rather cool at times. In the South temperatures will flutuate a bit as tropical maritime air alternates with cooler North Atlantic winds so here temperatures should range between normal and somewhat above. Unfortunately no cross model support looks that interested in showing any large UK based High pressure over the two week period so it looks like a case of the occasional good day sprinkled with some more indifferent ones as no set pattern looks like lasting long in any one place. So in Summary while it may seem that the models don't have a clue when showing day to day events in the next few weeks the pattern is more solidly set, with as a result a continuing changeable theme being the likely outcome of the weather as we move through mid July and I have no doubt that some folks will feel the weather being a bit of a let down given the time of year but all I will say to end is that it could be a whole lot worse.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday July 8th 2015

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Indeed, let's hope that the low to the NW shown for early next week takes the path shown by GFS and GEM which would see it pass to the NW of the UK, instead of the one shown by ECM which has it crossing directly over Scotland. I think that with the option shown by GFS and GEM, there may be a slightly quicker way back to HP building in from the Azores and us losing the northern blocking.

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Much more changeable looking runs today, in fact more of a westerly with some showers at times with temps close to average.

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That's because we are NOT a continental climate but a maritime climate.

Understand that and you wont go far wrong.

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I was actually going to type that but you had beaten me to it.

The sooner people understand that the UK is essentially an island and is always under the mercy of the Atlantic, the better. Yes, we do get to have the occasional hot spells but those are very much the exception and seldom last for very long (1976 was a rare gem). 

I'm quite content with us getting to have warm spells lasting for a few days here and there, that's really the best we should expect of our mid-latitude maritime-type climate most summers.

Much like we seldom have long-lasting proper winter spells in the winter (again, the likes of 1947 and 1963 are rarities). This is the UK being surrounded by salty sea water, not Chicago which has a much more continental-type climate. Yes, it has a great big lake at it's back yard but even that is subject to freezing over in the winter . . . but I'm sure everyone knows all that.

Anyway, back to about the models; "typical" is probably the best way to describe the outputs as things stand.


PS: Sorry about me going into Jeremy Clarkson mode.

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Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Mid-Summer Deterioration From ECM;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

GEM looks good for next week tho...

As Matty say's, overall model's remain VERY inconsistent for the mid (5-10 day) range as they have been for week. I have a theory this could be to do the El Nino that's developing in the Pacific, but who know's?

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Western Germany and northern France do not have continental climates either - they are maritime as well. Paris and London are almost identical in terms of temperature. What punishes the UK is being an island. If we were connected to the continent via land, we would probably retain the heat a lot longer than we do, and we would have probably reached 40C by now.

Besides, you have to admit that the UK's climate is really very boring even in comparison to its near neighbours - especially for a storm lover such as yourself.

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06Z GFS ensembles for Manc has some interesting pets out past the 14th, with around 5 runs keeping in place +10c air for a few more days than the rest. Perhaps one to watch after the dramatic turnaround of a couple of weeks ago!

Well if we're comparing Paris summer temps to London why don't we also compare Paris to Sydney?

Paris average summer maxes are very similar to that of Sydney Australia, infact there is less of a difference to Paris/Sydney then Paris/London.

Sydney*** January 25.9C low 18.7C

Paris*** July  25.2C low 15.8C

London*** July 23.5C low 13.9C

 

If I was after summer heat I know which city I would rather visit 😂🏄🐨🌴

Sydney is a lot sunnier than both Paris and London - that's the biggest difference. Oh, and Sydney gets random pulses of hot desert air that sends the temperatures soaring to something silly like 45C for one day.

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