theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Global Warming
23 August 2015 09:59:53

Anything from 30-70mm of rain expected across southern England in the next 72 hours according to the NMM model.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=72&mode=25&map=5


A little less shown by ICON


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=icon&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=nae&VAR=rsum&HH=78&ZOOM=1&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&RES=0


On the other hand EURO4 has some localised spots seeing 75-100mm in 48 hours which will presumably be due to embedded cells within the main areas of rain.


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=rsum&HH=78&BASE=nae&WMO=&ZOOM=1


So still a lot of uncertainty. The AROME model has tomorrow's system a bit further south so it only affects the far SE


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/sondage_arome.php?mode=1&ech=36

The Beast from the East
23 August 2015 10:19:19

Perhaps another hour before the band reaches here. Forecasts seem spot on with the timing at the moment.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jonesy
23 August 2015 10:22:32


Perhaps another hour before the band reaches here. Forecasts seem spot on with the timing at the moment.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I was thinking the same Beast, I can only remember two dry sunny Sundays this summer, always seem to want to rain.

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Sinky1970
23 August 2015 11:47:41
It looks to me as if that rain band is reducing in it's intensity.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2015 11:52:31

7am this morning - low cloud and scud moving rapidly east to west, cumulus to be seen at some distance to south


8am - the cumulus has moved up and its underside is moving just as rapidly but west to east


10 am - heavy rain

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
23 August 2015 12:11:51

band is a lot weaker than expected. No sign of thunder let alone a Daily Express "tornado"

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jonesy
23 August 2015 12:17:49


band is a lot weaker than expected. No sign of thunder let alone a Daily Express "tornado"


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I'm hoping it passes through a tad quicker than forecast and we may see a glimpse of brightness later this afternoon 


 

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Arcus
23 August 2015 15:19:03
Line of storms breaking out ahead of the main rain band over N. England
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Crepuscular Ray
23 August 2015 15:24:29

Line of storms breaking out ahead of the main rain band over N. England

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Thanks Ben....I'm sat having a glass of wine on Granary Wharf in Leeds...killing time before my train north to York then Edinburgh..hazy and 23 C. I can see dark sky to my south/southwest....could be interesting!

Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Arcus
23 August 2015 15:32:13


 


Thanks Ben....I'm sat having a glass of wine on Granary Wharf in Leeds...killing time before my train north to York then Edinburgh..hazy and 23 C. I can see dark sky to my south/southwest....could be interesting!


Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Looks like most of the development is over or to west of Pennines, but might just clip Leeds.


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Crepuscular Ray
23 August 2015 15:41:11
Can here long rumbles here now...to the SSW of Leeds City Centre....got an hour or so before my train so will keep observing...looming CuNimbs in the general haze. East wind freshening but still 22 C!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Crepuscular Ray
23 August 2015 16:18:07
Flash....loud rumble and sudden torrents from a dark boiling sky in Leeds City Centre. Should catch up and get ahead of this convective line as I get my train north!
2nd day running of thunder and lightning in Leeds
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Crepuscular Ray
23 August 2015 16:28:15
Impressive cloudburst in Leeds....One or two flashes but torrents in the streets!!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Crepuscular Ray
23 August 2015 16:40:32
Torrents easing in Leeds...wind easing and now from the south...temp from 23 an hour ago to more like mid teens. Only a few lightning flashes but the rain was intense....do TWO guys think the Pennines might have influenced that intense line?
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Arcus
23 August 2015 19:43:13
Looking forward to some less humid air, very oppressive again today. Heavy rain past hour or so with a couple of proximate lightning strikes.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
nsrobins
24 August 2015 06:06:11
Again a risk of deeper convective elements today, especially in the area near to the centre of the shallow surface low this afternoon - Sussex for instance.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
picturesareme
24 August 2015 08:18:10
No thunder but morning cycle to work was a wet one with monsoon downpours, flooded roads, and very dark with minimumal visibility thanks to the rain. All this between 8-8:30am.

Rain rates where between 30-70mm hour locally over the western Solent during the most intense downpours.
The Beast from the East
24 August 2015 09:57:20

lots of potential for severe cells this afternoon somewhere in the south


euro4


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/08/24/basis00/ukuk/prty/15082418_2400.gif


Arome


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/arome-1-12-0.png


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
picturesareme
24 August 2015 12:52:08
Just had 40 minute intense downpour dumping easily another 20mm of rain!!

The rooftop has flooded and the water is now making it down via the electrics through the building!! Simply to much rain for the guttering to handle.

POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
24 August 2015 12:59:34

Torrential rain rr/hr 81.2mm

Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
idj20
24 August 2015 13:07:37

The sun's come out here at this end as the occluded front had passed by us and we're in the unstable showery part of the system. I've had 14 mm of rain so far today and it does look quite convective around me at the moment but at least there is little wind to speak of.

Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
24 August 2015 13:18:22

rumble of thunder 


some intense showers to my south

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gusty
24 August 2015 13:51:44

16.8mm rain this morning (often heavy) followed by a sunny slot as the eye moved over. All eyes to the south now as a thunderstorm moves in off the channel. 17.8c. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Twister
24 August 2015 13:53:00


The sun's come out here at this end as the occluded front had passed by us and we're in the unstable showery part of the system. I've had 14 mm of rain so far today and it does look quite convective around me at the moment but at least there is little wind to speak of.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Well, it was bright for a while!


Now turning very dark with a rumble of thunder heard. Rain incoming soon!!

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
idj20
24 August 2015 14:22:55


 


Well, it was bright for a while!


Now turning very dark with a rumble of thunder heard. Rain incoming soon!!


Originally Posted by: Twister 



Indeed, just had a bit of weather just now with a burst of torrential rain bringing the total to 21.3 mm for the day along with the occasional lightning (which is still going off to my north west). I even got to spot a carrot dangling from the cloud base while it was still over the Strait of Dover.


Folkestone Harbour. 

Remove ads from site

Ads