The unsettled milder spell looks like it could be a blip before settled colder conditions arrive towards the months end according to the latest MetO update. One thing of note so that this Autumn is no seeing many Icelandic lows forming.

Tantalizing block developments to our North east on each run at present towards FI. Each run takes a different approach.

I wouldnt be surprised if we saw a quick beast from the east, before the next run changes again. All fun and games.

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While there is always the danger of using up good synoptics now, quite encouraged seeing HP modelled to the North East and hope this is a recurring theme as we head towards the last month of Autumn.

Of course as and when the jet fires up, the HP could be blasted into oblivion and not seen again until April. 

Nice looking charts. Just a shame that dotted line on the FAX charts says 542 and not 528.

Anyway I'm kind of enjoying this mellow Autumn weather. I know we've not had the best of it here in the south east but still remarkably dry and calm with just enough chillyness to feel like autumn.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY OCT 20TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow pushing the ridge currently over Southern Britain away to the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just under 5000ft across the North and just below 10000ft over the Southwest. The snow cover above 55 deg North in Europe continues to seasonably expand but the progress looks largely halted this week.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still a lot of dry and quiet conditions but with interventions to more unsettled conditions from the NW increasing with time.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen over coming days especially across the Atlantic. From there it crosses East over the North or at times to the South of the UK in a trough shape for much of the middle and latter end to the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today has a lot more of an Autumnal look to it now as for most of not all of the run the UK weather is governed by Atlantic westerlies and not high pressure. This means a sustained period of Westerly winds across Britain with rain and showers at times along with strong winds. Later in the period this morning's run shows particularly unsettled conditions with gales a risk for all with some colder brighter spells with showers, wintry on hills in the North later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The general theme of the Control Run fairly closely resembles that of the operational although the strong SW flow in Week 2 brings along some very mild air at times across the South and East and less in the way of rain here as well later as High pressure becomes high again just to the South and SE of the UK.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days today supports a greater likelihood of a West or SW flow likely across the UK rather than anything else although 15% of members do suggest High pressure lying across the UK with resultant fine weather in place for many.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a slow shift into unstable and cool Westerlies by the weekend as Low pressure to the North brings troughs across the UK with rain and strong winds over the North in the next few days before winds become light again over the UK with some showers late in the weekend and start to next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning also shows High pressure having declined away and leading us into a Westerly airflow with troughs crossing East at times with rain at times and strong winds too in the North, a process repeated several times over the coming 5 days.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today also shows a lot of unsettled weather over the coming 10 days with a continuation of it's desire to whip up a major storm in a weeks time, crossing the UK with gales and heavy rain followed by a cold Northerly with showers, wintry in the North and in turn a cold ridge with a day or so of cold and bright weather with frost then cloud and rain returning from the West by Day 10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a decline in conditions with some rain for all on Westerly winds in the next 5 days or so then in a weeks time this model takes the GEM route of an intense storm crossing the UK with gales and heavy rain likely for all clearing to colder, brighter weather with heavy showers and NW'ly gales to close the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning looks unsettled and changeable too this morning as it also highlights a spell of unsettled weather in mostly Westerly breezes with rain at times over the next 5 days or so. Then the pattern becomes complex as Low pressure moving East on more Southerly latitudes in a weeks time as pressure rises to the NW sending heavy rain across the South with a cold and strong NE flow on it's rear edge leading into a cold and breezy end to the period for all with dry weather developing for many Northern areas in an East or SE breeze whereas the chance of rain in the South persists.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night has changed little over the last day or so maintaining the theme of a trough to the NW, High pressure to both the NE and well to the SW with the UK lying under fairly unstable air with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to reflect a more volatile theme to the UK weather, perhaps notably so a week from now.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.4 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.2 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 37.4 pts to 31.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS the models continue to project a change in the weather. The first effects of this will be from later today as an active warm front moves SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow bringing the first significant rain for many for some while. Following on behind will be a strong Westerly with further troughs clearing SE on Thursday and again at the weekend each bringing a little rain at times. Then through the weekend and more particularly the start of next week some models predict the chance of a major storm system, the first of the season which if crosses the UK as GEM and NAVGEM presict then widespread gales and heavy rain would occur. ECM also shows this system but in a weaker form with heavy rain for the South looking more likely rather than noteworthy gales. Whichever way this goes it looks likely to be followed by a colder spell with showers, wintry in the North or in the case of ECM a cold and raw Easterly flow across the South as pressure builds to the North and NE. Thereafter, things look quite interesting as pressure always looks high to the NE and it could be that the UK becomes a battleground to Atlantic Low pressure systems trying to push East across the UK into Europe with the jury out on whether these track South towards Iberia and France or to the NW affecting the NW with severe gales. We will have to see how this trend pans out in subsequent runs but at least whatever happens this morning's runs do offer some more interesting weather than has been the case this Autumn so far.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

We have a bullseye of storm shown on the NAVGEM 168hr chart this morning which makes it the worst chart of the day which if evolved as shown would produce severe gale or even storm force winds with disruption to travel no doubt along with heavy rain.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif

The best chart today goes to GEM at Day 9 which following an earlier storm shows a cold High crossing the UK with fine but cold but possibly frosty weather likely for a time across the UK.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Oct 21st 2015

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Thank you Martin for your output.. Possible storm/ coldness will have to keep a weather eye on it....

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ECM looks cold this morning and wet next week as a low zips across the south. Staying cold into fi to.

GFS yet another borfest apart from deep fi when things do get quite interesting as the Atlantic really gets going.

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Yes certainly a fresh feel from ECM

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Quite a uniform splash tomorrow away from the far SW. 

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GFS continues its recurring theme of HP locked to the North East.
Can this continue for another few months?

Until the end of March would be fine Phil

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I'd be happy if it stayed there all year. 

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ECM 12z is cold and unsettled again and continuing into fi.

Wintry showers possible in places to in the north.

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Which one ends up closer to the mark is up in the air but the mid-term positions of the GFS and ECM are a fair way apart for our neck of the woods:-

 

GFS.

ECM

T120 is a relatively close period for such noticeable differences. UKMO and GEM are a blend of both so suspect a blended solution will be a better bet at the moment. More LP than ECM and more of HP in the Atlantic than GFS, with correspondingly lower heights over the UK.

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Does ECM have a documented 'bias' towards northern blocking?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif 

Luckily these charts are early enough in the season to not raise too many eyebrows, but in only a week or two they would certainly increase the traffic on here - and along with those various statements about model 'bias' etc etc.

I don't really ever look at the model verification stats, but I can pretty much guarantee without looking at them, that ECM is the best model week in week out through the year in all sorts of scenarios, including northern blocking, although it doesn't always get it right.

One example I can give of its 'stella' performance, is the recent hurricane (Joaquin). It was at one point expected to pile into the eastern continental US - with good cross model support. Except that is ECMF, which correctly predicted its eventual path well to the west ( and eventually ending up in Iberia). One very experienced forecaster over in the US highlighted this when the frenzy was building towards a US landfall - and was right to do so.

I'm not saying that tonights ECM charts for a notably cold end to the month will be correct - but I would put money on the ECM being the best model over the coming winter months, week in week out.

Looking forward to it! All the best, squish 🙂

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Stonking chart trends trends if we could have that as a winter pattern if we could that at t120 wth ecm.

 

Only a fool bets against ecm at t120

 

Awesome look at that pump up at the side of Greenland prefect postion on that last chart I like these charts tonight

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1

 

For you Q Awesome Pole split just a matter of time  lets hope so Good night

Next weeks potential storm on the eve of St Jude needs closely monitoring. Still a long way to go before there is sound agreement.

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Today's ECM0z ramping up the mildness. As I said yesterday the colder outcome it was showing came with a serious health warning due to lack of support. That's a pretty decent slice of pizza.

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Indeed.

I rate the ECM by far the best model available followed by the Met/o and then the GFS.

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I'm not sure that would be anything special temperature wise as the flow is off the continent rather than the Atlantic. Probably just "seasonal". If you want warm for the time of year, a nice föhn effect is hard to beat (e.g. today in areas affected).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn181.gif 

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GFS cant be that of a bad model cos it was the GFS that MR BRIAN noticed THE UPCOMING BIG FREEZE on back in 2009. 10 days before it happened, so cant rule out the GFS at any time,

It's not sizzle but the one magic rule to follow is that the GFS tends to flatten a pattern whilst the ECM over amplifies one.