I guess a lot of the extended range output (from beyond 10 days IMO and that includes the ECM32 and anything beyond - especially the CFSv2 which correlation wise from a month is no better than pinecones and Bewick swans, is experimental and as such needs to be treated as such. If a chart for a day in March 2017 is posted then fair enough, so long as a huge disclaimer is included and some retrospective analysis is performed. Until then I for one will likely ignore it with maybe just a passing glance at the likely ludicrous Synoptics it is suggesting. 

I agree with this. The Met Office line about El Nino leading to an increased chance of colder snaps during the late stages of the winter needs treating with caution as I said in the other thread. If March and April are included then I am inclined to agree, but if we're sticking to the meteorological winter the link to me seems tenuous at best.

Can we have some westerly's from GFS  to blow all this bleak fog and mildness away.........

Absurd. Nobody has a clue how this winter will turn out. The current spell of calm and foggy weather reminds me of autumn weather during my childhood in the 60s.

[quote=Maunder Minimum;730743]

Absurd. Nobody has a clue how this winter will turn out. The current spell of calm and foggy weather reminds me of autumn weather during my childhood in the 60s.

Yes agree I remember those days . In 1963 it started snowing on boxing days and seemed to last 3 months. Lets hope this is repeated.

Bazzer

Latest ECM run:

GFS is being very consistent in prediciting that the high teens, perhaps even 20*C, will be reached widely across England a week into November. Coinciding nicely with the weekend, in fact!

That would surely be among the most remarkable 'unseaonably warm temperature' events in living memory.

It's thanks to a low developing near the Azores at just the right time to throw some exceptionally warm air (originating int he subtropics) our way as it drifts toward Europe.

Amazingly, Sunday is about as warm again across the far south and southeast - but I can see a fog/low cloud risk by then as the isobars slacken.

If anyone can find more grim and depressing late Autumn Synoptics I would like to see them, these very mild temperatures are wasted so late in the season.

Had these Synoptics occurred in August they would have been great but who needs them in November?

In Cumbria we had 5 months of below average temperatures between May and September, I bet we will now get 5 months of above average temperatures between November and April, why can't it be the other way round!

Andy

Well, Andy.

I have sure heard that once before in the last few years as we go through mid autumn.

Where you live compare that to Eastern and SE or Southern parts of the U.K, in this country the weather and temperatures vary between you and them!

Oh yeah I thought about this just as like you also have suggested 

this is a very sad news that our usually contrastable normal November weather is now absent

and instead we are carrying on to end this Autumn on a very mild note indeed. 

A damp bonfire night in prospect for most according to GFS

I know JFF. Gooner is to blame as well. ;)

I know typical really!? It's like the minute you want some warm sunny and spring-like weather it get's cold which could well happen this March 2016.

Anyone thinking of opening a winter 2015/16 moaning thread? Winter hasn't started yet and I am starting to moan already...but does this surprise? - Well, I only post on here during winter months anyway, and it's too early in the season to moan or even write winter 2015/16 off but what an exceptionally mild start to November - was 20c today in Barnstaple around 2pm - this mild theme will continue for at least another week.

I heard it reached 22c in Wales - a record high - I think there is a separate thread for this.

I would have thought that current events are extremely interesting, not that you would know it from some of the posting in here.

Weather which causes long term records to be broken certainly grabs my interest, especially as we now have 2 monthly high temperature records broken this year.

Given the cold anomaly in the N.A., it's even more interesting.

FWW, conditions remain mild looking for 10 days or so but this means nothing regarding the approaching winter at this point IMO.

CFS and indeed GFS has been hinting at height rises to the NW for a little while now... This run has a high of 1070mb at the end of the run!  A trend to keep an eye on.

Largely benign and very mild with a gradual lowering of temperatures and pressure to nearer normal values next week. The ensembles show clearly northern areas getting brushed by possible depressions off the atlantic at times. Westerlies dominate. 

Indeed Phil. There are still a number of ensembles keen to keep high pressure dominant but they are in the minority now. There is a (currently weak but persistant) signal in FI for the development of troughing over Scandinavia and mid atlantic ridging that would promote a more seasonal polar originated airmass. Time will tell. 

Just for fun alert!

Repeat just for fun (don't want this place turning into the other side) but its nice to see a more interesting chart than the current set up. 

Yes Madden I'm talking about you 

You couldn't make that up. If that verifies we'll go from +20C to 0C and those in daytime temperatures.

Remember April 2008 some places had 18c in the North, then a week later in London/SE we got decent snow then I'm sure two weeks after that we was in high teens here and sunbathing 

Is that not called 'early Spring'?

I repeat, posting +384 has no real value, and although 'I agree it's very unlikely to happen, but . . .' caveats are all well and good, there is only academic value in this activity. If this forum is learning from past mistakes, I can't see much sign of it at the moment.

(Grumpy mood OFF )

Speaking of which:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=0

Would be something and a very different second half of November if that were to verify, chart after that is interesting too however all deep FI.  Has GFS been eating the GEM porridge today - normally what I'd expect off the GEM! 

Yes but does show weather can change in a very short space of time, just like it does within a few miles and a few hundred feet