Genuine wintry spell shown mid month by the GFS12z which would bring a widespread snow risk.  check out gavin P blog shortly for update

As commented earlier in this thread - GFS has a good track record of picking up trends and the trend is getting closer:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0

(from the 12z)

If that were to verify, it would be a major shock to the system after the recent (and current) mildness.

Was a tad on the cold side compared to the GEFS:

Cold FI theme continues - though, worryingly - on the latest run, looks like pressure maintains its heights over Europe/Med.

Was it last winter or the winter before where we had decent looking Northerly plunges stopped or significantly weaked by the lack of any Low pressures over the Med?  As in the cold air never really got any further south than glasgow.

Really hoping we are not in for a repeat performance.

grrrrrr....looked at the page count and thought...'hello, what's going on here then...?' Only to be presented with this comment.

:-p

Is this what one might call a 'teaser'?

There remains a signal for a pattern change of some sort by mid November, but that's all it is at this range. In the real world the next five days look quite wet and windy at times.

As for the comment 'I believe GFS over the Met Office' (re one month extended), all I can say is it's a free country 😉😬

Previous experience has surely taught us that even if GFS is not the most accurate on the detail, it is usually the first to provide a heads up to a future pattern change.

Isnt that high pressure starting to form over Greenland. 1684 here we come!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

What I'm about to come up with is still very experimental in nature so you are most welcome to dismiss it - and it is model outputs thoughts rather than me going off on a tangent like I usually do.

While the GFS seems to have been "having fun" coming up with alternative synoptics other than our default maritime set up beyond the 240 hrs time range lately, I would have thought it is due to trying to pick up on signals at the 300 hpa level? Perhaps some kind of stratospheric warming or upper winds trying to go into reverse but in this case it just seems to be a "normal" anti-clockwise vortex within the Arctic circle as far as this model's eyes can see (up to 16 days), even strengthening up in going along as expected of this time of year. In other words, pretty much the kind of set up we've had in the past two winters.

But of course, I could be missing something else entirely and perhaps best left to those who has a better understanding of it all, like Stormchaser. This is just me thinking aloud while it's being a quiet morning at my end. 

Is this what they call a long-fetch south-westerly?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

UKMO quote via IanF: "Some deterministic output, eg GFS, have a N’ly outbreak for a time, although this is not the preferred solution"

The potential cold seems to be creeping it's way over to us or better when there is a chance of a cold spell the met office won't call it till it truly shows up on their deterministic output. 

How come? Were you water-skiiing?...

The 0h GEFS output shows around 40% showing the cold option ie still a minority.

However, the Operational is run at a higher resolution than the ensembles, so presumably should carry more weight.

Which means very mild for most of Europe 

10-Day Temperature Outlook

Pressure is always far to high to the south I wish I could say something different

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0&carte=1