Personally I think it's a horror show but I'm not going to cry into my beer about it. Perhaps I will if the summer is a flop too, which for me means cool and unsettled. 

Jeez....

Deep into FI , could really do with the HP shooting up Greenland

Pointless pattern matching this because it is unprecedented! An exceptionally mild November followed by an even more exceptionally mild December at this level is pretty much unprecedented. The closest match in modern times is 1994. 1852 is another example which interestingly was followed by a really cold February. The current weather pattern started at the end of October and carried on with more or less with little break since.

Horrendous 12z from the GFS. 

Its not allowed that would mean a cold start to January as dec was very mild 

Thanks Kev 

J F F

J F F

For the cold crew

Just a question why do we keep on going on about whats happening over on NW we \ have more than enough members here with many bright and experienced members we should not get involved  or keep on with whats going on over there we dont need to

just a question thats all

A few of the GEFS runs scattering wildly in both the cold and the warm directions past Christmas and into the New Year:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Virtually every run seems to offer significant rain spikes at some point. More days like today: darkness, cold, non-stop rain and not a hint of sunshine.

A proper December day here. One or two of the reports on this thread read like dispatches from another planet.

Certainly is, looks very wet ......................potentially

P 18 would be fine, thanks

No comments on the ECM 12z? OK, it doesn't show anything wintry anytime soon, but it's quite a while now since we last had a HP positioned more or less right over the UK!

Yes, you're right David. More signs of some form of pattern change. More runs needed. 

Well the ECM 240h chart is interesting, but where would the HP go from there? Rise, sink or get pushed East? Given we seem to be in uncharted territory I'm just watching in awe as the models (as eventually they must) resolve how we get out of this seemingly endless pattern.

A case of so near but so far on the ECM run tonight. If only heights would fall down over Spain and the Med then some serious undercutting could take place. As it is the favoured option would be mild Southerlies before possibly a 'back to square 1' scenario develops as the High moves away East or SE as the Jet flow eventually rides over the top. However all things considered it is at least a step in the right direction.

Agreed. 

Its only gm but it has that cut off low at the death and look at the beast to the n/e

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

Something of note from the GFS 12z - the ens mean 850 temps drop below the long term mean for about 6 hours around 24 December:

we even have one member with a 850 temp of 15c on the 1st... Utterly insane!

Back to looking at the polar vortex. This time something a bit different, here are a selection of stratospheric polar vortex charts averaged over the ensembles.

Sorry I screwed up a bit on the time counter, you need to double it, so the last image is actually 384 hours.

Anyway this is averaged over all ensembles so its quite interesting that we see, yet again, the same theme with a weakening polar vortex and in the stratosphere a gradual displacement SE. I think its looking very interesting for Early january.

That could take the January all time record.

Here s an even more extreme  +17c : Gobsmacking.  As much of a rarity as a -20 ptb 16, 29/30 Dec

Thanks for that Quantum but the METO are not interested, and by implication their forecast supports the GFS version of events rather than the ECM version in the mid-range.

The coming days' model output will likely be interesting. It looks like turning quieter for a time at least just after Xmas compared to recently. Whether it turns out to be a mere flash in the pan or the start of a change of pattern, we can't be sure just now.

Actually statistically the former would be 14°C above the mean t850hPa for the date, the latter would be 23°C below. I would hazard a guess that neither are probable but in absolute terms the warmer option is statistically more likely.

Overall I think that a pattern change still looks likely after the next few days with high pressure somewhere in our vicinity' most likely somewhere to the east. For how long rexulting conditions are some of the many things to be established...that and whether it actually happens! For northern parts Christmas Day looks a bit more like what you would expect (in terms of long term average) for the time of year even if it is not overly wintry.

Pure gut instinct tells me there is a change in the offing.  Just a hunch, nothing more at this stage. Hopefully a good dose of warm air advection in the final days of the month will obliterate the CET record before an easterly arrives in the New Year.