Yes when will it end! Chances of a cold spell in the next 2 weeks less than 5% this morning. The ECM run must give us a chance of a 10c cet. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

The GFS has the 564 line hitting New England and Nova Scotia on Wednesday!

Oh, you know the way things are: one cold op and it's clearly wrong, but one very mild op and it's absolutely 100% correct!

That said, although heights will almost certainly be rising to the NE and it's quite likely a discrete high will form there, actually getting the cold stuff on its southern flank pushed far enough westwards is a much harder task. At the moment it's not the form horse, but as long as it's showing on the odd ensemble member there's a chance, no matter how small!

I think that's because we have seen the models pick out lots of very mild days 8-10 days before hand and they have verified.

This the GFS temp chart...........................ridiculous  warmth ??? where?????

Doesnt take much to get this in a favourable position

I just see it as a long way back if we get to there, everything is in the wrong place for cold to get to the UK. The low pressure blues to the NW are as monstrous as I've ever seen

Shropshire any chance of a reply

Please explain ,  everything is in the 'wrong place' .

The LP blues to the NW are as monstrous as you've seen????

Cheers

double digits at midnight on the 30th would be pretty ridiculous in any other year!

I wouldn't use the words " ridiculous warmth " though

The ECM chart would have minimums of about 13c at midnight I would guess !

My understanding is that if you have the high to the East, then the jet can't pass the meridian so you are in a permanent W/SW flow, and you cannot get the colder air here because the High can't move West because of the deep lows to the NW , so its a no win situation for us. I'm sure someone more experienced could explain it better !

Fair enough the GFS Op almost gets there but the GFS and ecm ensembles paint a very mild picture that and the Met long range forecast staying mild the chances of a cold spell anytime soon are very low.

Its 9 days away for starters

Darren could , very well I should imagine.

But what you are saying is, nothing can ever change this Winter because of the set up we are currently in, that just doesnt make sense.

What did you mean about monstrous blues???

Yes the METO outlook into January backs up the ECM, if anything the METO seem to be underdoing the mildness.

The problem is for those looking at the development of High pressure to the East and perhaps Scandinavia the Jet flow remains riding over the top of the High due to the strong and deep trough to the NW of the UK which others have mentioned. This means that with heights still high over the Med and Iberia we have just one outcome and that maintains the generally mild and changeable theme for the foreseeable as far as I can tell today. Yesterday did show the chance of some undercutting of Atlantic Low pressure beneath the developed High over Europe but that chance has evaporated again today. I think a record December CET is inevitable now and I can see this theme lasting up to and into the New year before any significant change. 

I know some people don't rate the ECM 10 day Mean Chart but I fine it as good a guide as any and over the last month it has been 100% right in maintaining the look it still has this morning with Low pressure up to the NW and High over Southern and Eastern Europe keeping mild and balmy SW winds across the UK with rain at times. While it's own Operational model has wobbled from this pattern at times the Mean Chart has not wavoured so I can say with some confidence that it will be some considerable time before much in the way of change is likely.

Thanks, the last bit sums up my thoughts. In terms of cold, we are down at the bottom of the pit right now.

Yes, we need to be lucky and get an undercut and a trigger low.  Unlikely but not entirely impossible.

Shropshire, it might seem I'm having a go at you , but your posts are very misleading.

Where is the outlook for January from ECM??

I fully expect the whole of January to be a continuation of the mild crud we have experienced in December, since that is our lot in life.

However, it would not take much to change the outlook to cold and snowy - we are talking about charts where a small variation could have a massive impact locally over the UK, since these are not classic zonal charts, they are meridional. The trouble with meridional is that you have to be on the right side of the equation - a few hundred miles one way or the other makes the difference between mild gunk and winter heaven in these situations.

Well of course it only goes to DEC 31 but as Gibby and others have said the pattern is so poor that you can assume that the route to any cold would be a long one from the poor position, taking us well into Jan

As Murray Walker sort of said, "anything can happen and it probably will" but in the UK you discount the mild outcome at your peril. 

Any comment on the spread and confidence limits from day 5 or 6? You may be confident, the ECM is not and that is only in the six to ten day period never mind  beyond 10 days or up to 40 days!

I'm not sure anyone is discounting the mild outcome as it is a very realistic possibility. However despite the model output some seem to be discounting the possisilibilty of any other outcome for weeks.