Looking through the GEFS 06z I was a little surprised I couldn't see any full on easterlies, only some flirtations which could result in a battleground snow event at least. Most peturbations although interesting synoptically are ultimately wet and Atlantic influenced so that looks the form horse. So it's no surprise the Met Office aren't signalling any beast yet. At this time I can see a battleground snow event as a decent possibility but any prolonged beast looks a long shot tbh.

10 day postage stamps. Can't remember the year but there was an occasion when very cold air got close to the north east of the UK. A week ahead some of the papers went to town on a 'big freeze' but it ended up as a 'close but no cigar' outcome. This currently looks similar and as others have noted there is the potential for a lot of rain. 

er, they are... just saying it is a low chance:

"but the chance of a prolonged cold spell remains low."

Why not a) read what the MetO say, and 😎 post in support of your comments please?

No, the METO quote you have used covers Jan 10-24 - the possible action cold/snow wise is as early as 7 days before that update - and it isn't mentioned in the period covering Dec 31 - Jan 9.

To be fair that quote is talking about late January rather than we period we're looking at now. 

"Later in the month there are weak signals the wind will turn more northwesterly, allowing temperatures to return to near normal, but the chance of a prolonged cold spell remains low."

Yes that's my point, the battle that some of the models are showing T168-T240 obviously isn't something that the METO are considering as being anywhere near the UK as presumably it would be mentioned in the medium range update.

I would suggest that the GLOSEA is pretty bullish about continuing westerlies.

The Kettley High of 2001 Brian. 

Is it my imagination or do the ECM ensembles look slightly cooler this morning?

Oh dear , if it covers the period Jan 10-24 , then surely it would cover the early period too

Brilliant

I just think it is important that the METO don't even consider a battle as a possibility in the 7-10 day range - they must be confident in theor own modelling, it's quite possible that is shows a retreating high to the NE and essentially a continuation of what we have now.

Can we just please stop feeding the trolls.

I remember this very well; I made the call on the BBC forums at the time that it wouldn't happen.

a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Indeed, I wonder how many cold spells Shropshire has picked up well in advance or is more fun to be antagonistic towards others than to actually discuss something on topic with evidence.

This potential easterly may come to nothing as has happened in the past but the ones that do come to fruition quite often develop in the model output the way this one is doing. It is both arrogant and naive to dismiss it out of hand on a weather model output thread. So the only conclusion can be it is done out of ignorance of a large section of model out put or possibly trolling. Either is a bit of shame to be honest. 

Why didnt they employ you then

Doc, Let's just wait and see if the METO change their medium term outlook to stress uncertainty for next weekend onwards. If they don't, then I expect everything to be gradually shunted East by the NWP.

I am not denying that could happen, but my whole point is that there is actually an increasing number/percentage of model output runs showing a change to something from an easterly quarter. Whether the Met Office actually comments on it doesn't change that (and I understand when it is still a minority of output that they are unlikely to given the nature of our tabloid press!)

I wouldn't dream of saying there will be a cold easterly hitting the UK in the next couple of weeks, all I am saying is that it is one of the options being consistently shown in the model output for days. 

I have been following the MetO's updates for long enough, especially since they adopted their current policy of updating them every day, to know that sometimes there can be notable differences in their outlook from one day to the next. For example, for a few days back in early Dec  they spoke about a possible colder & drier spell in the second half of December. I wonder what happened to that! Even yesterday and on Xmas Day they spoke of a possible change to a colder NW pattern around or just after mid-Jan; no mention of it today. Roughly translated, all that says to me is "we don't have a clue for later in January".

As someone said earlier, their outlooks follow what the model output is showing, not the other way round.

That's fair enough David and the models were first to pick up that cold weekend blast in November. Let's hope for some good news from the 12zs.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122712/gfsnh-0-132.png?12

LP into the NW on this run as opposed to the SW on the 6z

FI already????

Could that one not still slide under, given a stubborn HP?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122712/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015122712/UN96-21.GIF?27-17

UK and GFS virtually identical at 96h