Is the link between the GH and the Atlantic about to be lost ??? either way one run and its a variation, needs to be remembered

Almost a disconnect at day 7 out in the Atlantic , need to watch this on subsequent runs.

I'd also watch the possibility of the cold shot being centred west of the UK. 

The big picture is still very much the same let's get that straight, just another variation, whether it's one of the favourites remains to be seen

The 18z looks a bit of a duffer compared to recent runs, so far. We seem to be heading for a UK high and a sinker. 

Still it's only the pub run right?

Bitterly cold in places

I was struck by how bullish the Meto (Via BBC forecasts) have become and explanation about how the meridional jet may lead to a locked in pattern and extended cold spell was most interesting.
I guess Steve Murr is owed a few apologies after the grief he got from a few last week

i wouldnt mind betting this is one of the milder ensemble members

That's some alteration compared to the 12z. High pressure positioned 1,000 miles to the east, now over us.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

In terms of t850s I would be amazed if it was! 

Run out of tissues

Of course only if it is well supported

Hi.  That would have been me, Ive copied my post in the previous MO thread as it got lost amid post 12z FI cold run euphoria, I believe it does answer your question:

I'm seeing charts that although good, and are eye candy compared to what winter season charts have  preceded them since March 2013, what will need to be factored in are the sea temperatures.  Around the SE coast these stand at around 11c or a good 3-4 c above where they should be following the 2nd mildest November and the mildest December on record.  Should we actually get proper cold uppers (say -10 or below) then windward coasts should be on the safe side, but almost all the output shows uppers in the range -4 to -9.  For many lowland and coastal districts the air simply would not be cold enough.  It will be ok for those at altitude and well inland or in areas in the northern UK with an off shore wind.

There is, to my sceptical eye, a lack of deep cold at present.  The flipside is that should we actually get some deep cold then the convection potential will be extreme and some very localised heavy snowfalls would be possible under those circumstances.  Personally I will be looking for any trends that bring in North Easterlies, the ECM 240 is good but a world away.

Good as the charts are, I am keeping my feet firmly on the ground, though on a personal level I will welcome any weather that stops the flooding and uber-mild damp crappiness we've had to endure.

WI

Well back in late November, Moomin went for a record mild December and I and a few others doubted him at the time. However fair play to him for spotting the trend that led to that from way out which verified. Moomin, if you're reading this- my humble apologies!

I must say I hope he is proved just as accurate with his thoughts about this month.

18Z is a shocker. The usual wobbles or the start of another snafu?

mild southwesterlies for all by next weekend 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif

<PE>

Don't, Don't, Don't Believe The Hype

</PE>

It is what it is. Don't Discount the run.

Cue Melanie...

This could well be the return to Westerly's the Met O update talks about, just thought I'd throw that in but miles too far out to take seriously, be interesting to watch the control come out to see what that shows